As far as I can see and quite remarkably, the modelling uses vaccine effectiveness estimates vs unvaccinated but not previously infected.
Their mid-point VE is 55%, close to 57% in the Oxford study which definitely has not previously infected as the reference group ...
Their mid-point VE is 55%, close to 57% in the Oxford study which definitely has not previously infected as the reference group ...
https://twitter.com/NickTriggle/status/1437479355073105921
... those previously infected have a high level of immunity. There may be an additional effect from vaccines, but it will much, much smaller for this group ...
.. the higher the % of children previously infected, the lower will be potential school absences prevented. Knowing this % is essential to the modelling but I can't find any reference to their estimate of this ...
...
In fact, there is no mention of previous infection at all. This is such an obvious & crucial point, I can't believe it has not been included.
Perhaps it has been modelled but just not mentioned. If so it would be good to get reassurance and urgently ...
In fact, there is no mention of previous infection at all. This is such an obvious & crucial point, I can't believe it has not been included.
Perhaps it has been modelled but just not mentioned. If so it would be good to get reassurance and urgently ...
...
The estimates also don't model school absences due to vaccine side effects. I don't know why as that seems potentially pretty important too, but at least they state this limitation explicitly.
The estimates also don't model school absences due to vaccine side effects. I don't know why as that seems potentially pretty important too, but at least they state this limitation explicitly.
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