As far as I can see and quite remarkably, the modelling uses vaccine effectiveness estimates vs unvaccinated but not previously infected.
Their mid-point VE is 55%, close to 57% in the Oxford study which definitely has not previously infected as the reference group ...
... those previously infected have a high level of immunity. There may be an additional effect from vaccines, but it will much, much smaller for this group ...
.. the higher the % of children previously infected, the lower will be potential school absences prevented. Knowing this % is essential to the modelling but I can't find any reference to their estimate of this ...
In fact, there is no mention of previous infection at all. This is such an obvious & crucial point, I can't believe it has not been included.
Perhaps it has been modelled but just not mentioned. If so it would be good to get reassurance and urgently ...
The estimates also don't model school absences due to vaccine side effects. I don't know why as that seems potentially pretty important too, but at least they state this limitation explicitly.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with David Paton

David Paton Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @cricketwyvern

14 Sep
The Govt seem to have authorised vaccinating 12-15 year olds on the basis of modelling suggesting the programme will avoid the loss of about 15 minutes schooling per pupil over a 6 months period.

But even that 15 minute benefit assumes ...…
1. No vaccinated children have been previously infected.

But we know a high % of children have been infected & hence already have high immunity. Allowing for this wd mean estimated schooling saved is much lower even than 15 mins /pupil.

But also ...
2. The modelling assumes no school time is lost administering the vaccine.

If children are vaccinated at school & then observed for 15 minutes (as advised), the whole 15 minutes benefit would be more than wiped out.

But it gets worse ...…
Read 6 tweets
3 Sep
We know vaccine passports:
• are unethical & discriminatory.
• are unlikely to have any beneficial effect on infections.
• will create huge costs to firms & individuals.
• will entrench anti-vax sentiment.

but how bad is the problem they are actually trying to solve?

The Govt says they want to introduce vaccine passports for nightclubs, football matches & other crowded events as they think, otherwise, those will cause big rises in infections …

Well, since 19 July, we have been running an experiment:
England opened all these events in full & with no legal obligation for vaccine passports/tests.

We've had full sports stadia for #100, T20, Tests, Premier league etc, packed nightclubs & loads of festivals …
Read 13 tweets
2 Sep
The new Lancet Infectious Diseases study finds vaccination reduces risk of infection relative to unvaccinated who have not previously been infected (they don’t compare risk to unvaccinated with a previous infection) but ...…
crucially the study also finds “increased incidence of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic infection in vaccinated participants”

The researchers warn of the potential risk this creates from vaccinated workers like carers who interact with vulnerable people ...
i.e. to the extent asymptotic transmission occurs, vaccinated carers who get infected may pose a bigger risk to residents than unvaccinated.

More evidence the Government's policy of sacking unvaccinated carers may have all sorts of unintended consequences ...
Read 6 tweets
30 Aug
It is not just 40,000 unvaccinated carers that the Government is planning to sack.

Hard-working social workers & many others who work with the elderly are receiving notice that they may also be sacked ...…
Many of these people have worked throughout the pandemic, the nation applauding them each week.

Now they are going to be sacked because they choose not to have a particular medical intervention ...
Not only is the new law unjust & unethical ...
Read 6 tweets
20 Aug
The latest ONS official incidence estimates confirm new infections continued to fall after the final re-opening in England on 19 July (including end of social distancing restrictions, nightclubs open, full sports stadia & end of mask mandates).
The trends in Wales, NI & Scotland (who all kept their mask mandates in place) show a mixed picture: rates increased in NI (fast) & Wales (more slowly). Scotland rates continued down quite fast over the same period.
These are the estimates of daily new infections in England.

The most recent few days can get revised, but safe to conclude that new infections were decreasing for at least 2 weeks from 19th July reopening/end of mask mandate.
Read 4 tweets
19 Aug
Oxford/ONS study:
• Viral load similar vaccinated vs unvaccinated, no measure of actual transmission
• Significant vaccine effectiveness vs Delta but …
• reducing over time, esp for AZ

What are implications for Govt policy to sack unvaccinated carers?…

[I’ll refer mainly to comparisons based on PCR test Ct values < 30, i.e. higher viral load. The paper also provides comparisons based on all +ve PCRs & +ve PCRs with self-reported symptoms] …

Overall, having a prior infection provides a similar level of protection to being vaccinated (Table 1a/2a). Protection is lower relative to Pfizer (statistically significant difference), higher than AZ (statistically insignificant). However .,.
Read 16 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!