We know vaccine passports:
• are unethical & discriminatory.
• are unlikely to have any beneficial effect on infections.
• will create huge costs to firms & individuals.
• will entrench anti-vax sentiment.
but how bad is the problem they are actually trying to solve?
...
• are unethical & discriminatory.
• are unlikely to have any beneficial effect on infections.
• will create huge costs to firms & individuals.
• will entrench anti-vax sentiment.
but how bad is the problem they are actually trying to solve?
...
…
The Govt says they want to introduce vaccine passports for nightclubs, football matches & other crowded events as they think, otherwise, those will cause big rises in infections …
The Govt says they want to introduce vaccine passports for nightclubs, football matches & other crowded events as they think, otherwise, those will cause big rises in infections …
…
Well, since 19 July, we have been running an experiment:
England opened all these events in full & with no legal obligation for vaccine passports/tests.
We've had full sports stadia for #100, T20, Tests, Premier league etc, packed nightclubs & loads of festivals …
Well, since 19 July, we have been running an experiment:
England opened all these events in full & with no legal obligation for vaccine passports/tests.
We've had full sports stadia for #100, T20, Tests, Premier league etc, packed nightclubs & loads of festivals …
…
This was done at a time infections were very high, so you might think v. risky. Indeed, Govt ministers & SAGE modellers *promised* England would see 100k-200k infections per day during August.
So what’s been the result? …
This was done at a time infections were very high, so you might think v. risky. Indeed, Govt ministers & SAGE modellers *promised* England would see 100k-200k infections per day during August.
So what’s been the result? …
…
Positive tests now average around 25k /day, just 25% of the 100k minimum we were told would happen.
7-day average rate/100k currently 303, actually 6% lower than 26th July (1 week from 19th to allow for infection-test lag) ...
Positive tests now average around 25k /day, just 25% of the 100k minimum we were told would happen.
7-day average rate/100k currently 303, actually 6% lower than 26th July (1 week from 19th to allow for infection-test lag) ...
…
What about 20-24 year olds: relatively low vaccine take-up & high attendance at nightclubs etc so a key target group for vaccine passports.
After an early increase, positive test rates have been declining quite fast, now 34% lower than on 26 July …
What about 20-24 year olds: relatively low vaccine take-up & high attendance at nightclubs etc so a key target group for vaccine passports.
After an early increase, positive test rates have been declining quite fast, now 34% lower than on 26 July …
…
Not quite such a big drop for 15-19 year olds, another key target group but positive tests still currently 20%+ lower than on 26 July ...
Not quite such a big drop for 15-19 year olds, another key target group but positive tests still currently 20%+ lower than on 26 July ...
…
In contrast, rates have been increasing in the oldest & most vaccinated age groups, e.g. 90+ group is 80% up on 26 July (though from a low base).
Seems highly unlikely to be driven by opening of nightclubs & sporting events ...
In contrast, rates have been increasing in the oldest & most vaccinated age groups, e.g. 90+ group is 80% up on 26 July (though from a low base).
Seems highly unlikely to be driven by opening of nightclubs & sporting events ...
…
You might argue we shouldn’t care about positive tests anyway. Hospital admissions virtually unchanged (in fact 7-day ave 1% down) from 29 July (based on 10 day infection-admission lag) ...
You might argue we shouldn’t care about positive tests anyway. Hospital admissions virtually unchanged (in fact 7-day ave 1% down) from 29 July (based on 10 day infection-admission lag) ...
...
Deaths have gone up somewhat: average now 93/day compared to 74/day on 9 Aug (allowing for 3 week infection-death lag) but this is largely driven by the increases in the oldest groups …
Deaths have gone up somewhat: average now 93/day compared to 74/day on 9 Aug (allowing for 3 week infection-death lag) but this is largely driven by the increases in the oldest groups …
…
So nightclubs, sports grounds & festivals have been fully open without any legal vaccine requirements. Despite this, we have seen little evidence of any increase in infections overall & drops in the age groups vaccine passports are aimed at …
So nightclubs, sports grounds & festivals have been fully open without any legal vaccine requirements. Despite this, we have seen little evidence of any increase in infections overall & drops in the age groups vaccine passports are aimed at …
…
Of course some events did operate their own Covid certification.
That would still be possible if the Govt abandons compulsory passports but the experience of Boardmasters suggests certification was of little or no help in preventing infections ...
Of course some events did operate their own Covid certification.
That would still be possible if the Govt abandons compulsory passports but the experience of Boardmasters suggests certification was of little or no help in preventing infections ...
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