The Govt seem to have authorised vaccinating 12-15 year olds on the basis of modelling suggesting the programme will avoid the loss of about 15 minutes schooling per pupil over a 6 months period.
But even that 15 minute benefit assumes ...
gov.uk/government/pub…
But even that 15 minute benefit assumes ...
gov.uk/government/pub…
...
1. No vaccinated children have been previously infected.
But we know a high % of children have been infected & hence already have high immunity. Allowing for this wd mean estimated schooling saved is much lower even than 15 mins /pupil.
But also ...
1. No vaccinated children have been previously infected.
But we know a high % of children have been infected & hence already have high immunity. Allowing for this wd mean estimated schooling saved is much lower even than 15 mins /pupil.
But also ...
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1437495699613093891?s=20
...
2. The modelling assumes no school time is lost administering the vaccine.
If children are vaccinated at school & then observed for 15 minutes (as advised), the whole 15 minutes benefit would be more than wiped out.
But it gets worse ...
nhs.uk/conditions/cor…
2. The modelling assumes no school time is lost administering the vaccine.
If children are vaccinated at school & then observed for 15 minutes (as advised), the whole 15 minutes benefit would be more than wiped out.
But it gets worse ...
nhs.uk/conditions/cor…
3. The modelling also assumes no school time is lost from pupils suffering side effects from the vaccine.
This study (not on children) reported 13% had systemic (whole body) side effects after 1 Pfizer dose whilst 72% had local side effects ...
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
This study (not on children) reported 13% had systemic (whole body) side effects after 1 Pfizer dose whilst 72% had local side effects ...
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
...
If rates amongst children are similar & only those reporting systemic side effects took an average 1 day off school, that would on its own more than wipe out the 15 minutes average benefit ...
If rates amongst children are similar & only those reporting systemic side effects took an average 1 day off school, that would on its own more than wipe out the 15 minutes average benefit ...
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1437495699613093891?s=20
...
The modellers point to other assumptions that might mean 15 mins is an underestimate.
But even if that estimate were doubled or tripled, allowing for previous infection, administration/observation & side effects mean the program is likely to lead to a net *loss* of schooling.
The modellers point to other assumptions that might mean 15 mins is an underestimate.
But even if that estimate were doubled or tripled, allowing for previous infection, administration/observation & side effects mean the program is likely to lead to a net *loss* of schooling.
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