1/11 Had a very candid and eye opening conversation with @AgustinLebron3 about trading, decision making and how retail traders should approach the space.
Watch it here:
Here's some of the topics and lessons we discussed (thread) ->
2/ Trading, poker, etc... people interested in one of these fields are often interested in the others. Why?
They all involve:
1) being able to think analytically about decisions and
2) an ability to make decisions with incomplete information (with lots of money on the line)
3/ There is no clear answer/simple formula for how to beat the market. The reason? It's a competitive space. There are other extremely smart people trying to answer that same question. Easy methods get competed away quickly.
4/ Surround yourself with smart people in an interactive. If you are trying to figure everything out on your own, the learning curve is steep and long. It's one of the biggest benefits of working at a firm.
5/ The efficient frontier of Edge lies someone between systematic strategies (more data points, avoid biases) and the discretionary 'special sauce' that you bring to the table (changes over time, creativity that is particular to you).
6/ Strategies have capacity. A big fish can't survive in a small pond, and a small fish doesn't necessarily need an ocean to survive. If you are a small fish, use this to your advantage.
7/ "If you are the third best player in the world in some obscure chess variant, I want to talk to you" - Agustin on hiring traders for Jane Street.
It shows that you have the ability to dive deep and achieve mastery in things that you have genuine curiosity in.
8/ Trading experience isn't always what firms look for. They have a process they'll teach you. 2 much experience means more to unlearn. Position yourself as someone with the right skillset, and motivations.
That being said, anything that proves you work really hard is a plus
9/ The same methodology that informs good trading can be used to inform good decision making in other fields. See Agustin's comments about his recruiting company @ 38min mark.
10/ Understand why you are trading. It's a very competitive space. What attracts you? Is it the challenge? The money? This is the first/ number one thing to understand about yourself when getting into trading.
11/ This podcast is gold. So many other good discussions for traders of all levels. Thanks again @AgustinLebron3 for coming on and dropping all this alpha 🤪
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1/4 Looking at $TGT earnings. At first glance, the market implied move looks low relative to what happens around Target earnings. 5.3% implied, 7.69% average..
2/4 And looking at my strategy analyzer, buying vol going into earnings has been pretty solid returns over the last couple of years. If you bought a straddle going into $TGT earnings you'd return about 200% on risk in 3 years. BUT..
3/4 Take a look at the seasonal impact. This shows us the earnings moves by quarter. We can see that the releases during q1 timeframe have been MUCH lower move. Never seen above 5%. $TGT