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13 Sep, 9 tweets, 6 min read
9/13 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Hospitalizations with a strong decline today
2) Cases- chance of new peak tomorrow, likely last possible new peak date
3) Pos% & testing have flattened thru 1st week of Sep
4) Fatality breakdown on 46 reported

1/n
 .
9/13 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/5 at 13.41%. It has flattened out into first of Sep as of right now
* Testing new high of 1.075 Million tests per week on 9/3
* Rate of growth still all near 0 or decline
* Covidestim Rt declines to 0.69!!

2/n
 .
9/13 Cases

* 8.1K Cases reported, vs 2.6K last Labor
* Case 7DMA WoW down 3%
* Peak is 9/5
* If 14.7K cases tomorrow, new peak will be set. Which is nuts since Hospitalizations peaked end of August. Its a factor of massive testing and case reporting antiquity
.
3/n
9/13 Hospitalizations

* -165 to 13065. Last Mon was -187
* Single Day Peak is 8/25 - 13932
* 7DMA Rate of Decline at -3.0%
* ICU finally starting some stronger declines off peak
* Starting to stack good days together

4/n
 .
9/13 - Hosp Covid Admits

* Statewide Admits down 143 from last Mon. 7DMA down 241 from peak on 8/23
* 7DMA Rate of Decline of 8.2% Week over Week
* SETRAC 7DMAs down a very strong 13.6% WoW. TMC down 10.9%
* Admits look great. Means big drops coming for Census

5/n
9/13 Fatalities Part 1:

* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 thru 8/22, 2020 thru 7/22, waves 13 mo apart
* Fatalities thru above:
* 2020 - 6096, 248 7DMA
* 2021 - 4936, 224 7DMA
* Despite WAY higher hosps at this point in the wave, fatalities running ~19% lower than 2020.

6/n
 .
9/13 Fatalities Part 2

* 166 Reported yesterday +12 from Last Sun
* 46 Reported today, -7 from Last Mon
* #Flat
* Two more big reports coming tomorrow and Wed
* New projections on Wednesday
* With Hosp peak at end of Aug, I'm predicting reporting peak this week

7/n
 .
9/13 - Fatalities Primer

8/n
 .
9/13 Conclusion

* Probably my last week of tracking testing and leading indicators. Likely cases too. Maybe only 1-2 times a week.
* Will follow hospitalizations for a little while longer, and of course fatalities. Then its break time. I'm ready for one.

9/end

• • •

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
14 Sep
9/14 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) New & likely final Case peak
2) Hospitalizations continue to drop
3) Pos% & testing hit Labor Day decline
4) Fatality breakdown on 296 reported

1/n
 .
9/14 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/6 at 13.14%.
* Testing hits Labor Day wall, with big decline, and doubtful it comes back to same rate. 100K+ tests taken right out of the 7DMA on a single day.
* Covidestim Rt up from 0.69 to 0.74

2/n
 .
9/14 Cases

* New Case Peak 9/14
* 17.3K Cases reported, vs 6.0K last Tues
* Case 7DMA WoW up 31%. Literally all over the place
* This should be the final peak. With Labor Day impacting testing numbers, and huge comps coming up, should not be seeing another new peak set

3/n
 .
Read 9 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
12 Sep
9/12 Texas Case, Hosp & Fatalities: Mobile Edition

THREAD:

Summary:

* Cases down vs last Sun
* Hospitalizations with a decent drop
* Admits continue strong decline

1/n
 .
9/12 Cases

Cases today - 3952
Last Sunday - 6844
Change vs last week - minus 2.9k
7DMA Rate of decline - 13.6%
Today 7DMA - 12999
Peak 7DMA - 15039 9/5

Two super weak comps coming up with about 15K in the 7DMA peak bank. After that its brutal post Labor Day catchup comps
.
2/n
9/12 Hospitalizations

* Hospitalizations - 13230 down from 13285
* Vs yesterday -55. Compared to last Sun daily decline of -25
* 7DMA Rate of decline - 2.8%
* ICU - 3758, -58 from yesterday

The dam should be about to break. Admits dropping more strongly than census
.
3/n
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
11 Sep
9/11 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Hospitalizations with a strong decline today
2) Cases decline Week over week
3) Saw some Labor Day catch up on tests & positives. A bunch of older tests from end of Aug
4) Fatality breakdown on 357 reported

1/n
 .
9/11 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/3 at 13.51%. Thousands of tests between 8/29 and 9/2, a ton of positives. Should shake itself out by Monday
* Maybe 8 days back isnt far enough
* Rate of growth still all near 0 or decline
* Covidestim Rt holds at 0.72

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
9/11 Cases

* New record 7DMA of 151.3K tests per day on 9/2.
* That's 1.06 Million tests a week. #nuts
* 10.1K Cases reported, vs 13.9K last Sat
* Case 7DMA WoW down 7%
* Peak is 9/5
* Can't guarantee we don't have a new peak on Mon or Tues with low comps of Labor Day

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
10 Sep
9/10 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Testing & Postive tests on the decline thru 9/2
2) Harris trying to keep this going. Cases flat WoW
3) Hosps down vs yest & Last week. Ready from some strong declines
4) Fatality breakdown on 400 reported

1/n
 .
9/10 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/2 at 12.88% (Changed Calcs to be more accurate)
* Testing through 9/2, definitely a peak late August. Positives were in decline.
* Covidestim with another drop in Rt to 0.72
* Everything at ~0% growth or decline
2/n
 .
9/10 Cases

* 19.5K Cases reported, vs 19.2K last Fri
* Case 7DMA WoW down 3%
* Peak is 9/5
* Harris dumped 7.5K. Trying their best to keep it going. 2 more tough comps next 2 days, not expecting a new peak at this point. Especially with positives declining through 9/2

3/n
 .
Read 9 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
9 Sep
9/9 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Testing definitely peaking last week
2) More Labor Day catch up on Cases
3) Hosps down vs yesterday & Last week. Should decline strongly this weekend
4) Fatality breakdown on 405 reported. Labor Day catch up

1/n
 .
9/9 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/1 at 13.68%
* Testing through 9/1, a peak may have formed on 8/27. 7DMA actually decreased vs 8/25 (preliminary)
* Covidestim with another drop in Rt to .74
* Gotta have positive tests to have cases

2/n
 .
9/9 Cases

* 23.7K Cases reported, Labor Day catch up vs 17.1K last Wed
* Case 7DMA WoW up 5%
* Peak is 9/5
* All the counties have had big case dumps the past two days. Comps of 19.2K, 14K, 6.8K coming up. Don't see a new peak, but I've been wrong before

3/n
 .
Read 9 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
8 Sep
9/8 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Testing peaking last week?
2) Big Case catch up day, but new peak maybe not in reach?
3) Hospitalizations down vs last week (LW), even post Labor Day
4) Fatality breakdown on 286 reported. Down again from LW?

1/n
 .
9/8 Indicators

* PCR Pos% as of 8/31 at 13.81%
* Testing through 8/31 appears to be forming a peak. 7DMA rate of increase is nearing zero
* Covidestim with huge drop in Rt to .76
* If Tests are cresting w/ declining positivity, this week will see declines in cases

2/n
 .
9/8 Cases

* 25.1K Cases reported, Labor Day catch up vs 17.0K last Wed
* Case 7DMA WoW up 1.2%
* Peak is 9/5
* 7DMA is over 2K behind peak. With 3 tough comps coming up, don't think there's enough cases left to set a new peak. Especially with tests cresting thru 8/31

3/n
 .
Read 13 tweets

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