1) Testing definitely peaking last week 2) More Labor Day catch up on Cases 3) Hosps down vs yesterday & Last week. Should decline strongly this weekend 4) Fatality breakdown on 405 reported. Labor Day catch up
* Total positivity rate as of 9/1 at 13.68%
* Testing through 9/1, a peak may have formed on 8/27. 7DMA actually decreased vs 8/25 (preliminary)
* Covidestim with another drop in Rt to .74
* Gotta have positive tests to have cases
2/n .
9/9 Cases
* 23.7K Cases reported, Labor Day catch up vs 17.1K last Wed
* Case 7DMA WoW up 5%
* Peak is 9/5
* All the counties have had big case dumps the past two days. Comps of 19.2K, 14K, 6.8K coming up. Don't see a new peak, but I've been wrong before
3/n .
9/9 Hospitalizations
* -34 to 13486. Last Thurs was -105
* What Labor Day rebound?
* Single Day Peak is 8/25 - 13932
* 7DMA Rate of Decline at -1.1%
* ICU stays post peak
* Fri - Sun numbers are heavy discharges. Could see census approaching 13100 by Sunday.
4/n .
9/8 - Hosp Covid Admits
* Statewide Admits down 186 from last Thursday
* What Labor Day rebound?
* 14DMA rate of change for all TSA areas - 13 of 22 are negative
* TMC and SETRAC 7DMAs continue to decline
* CDC ER visits with C-19 peaked on 8/15
5/n .
9/9 Fatalities Part 1:
* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 thru 8/18, 2020 thru 7/18, waves 13 mo apart
* Fatalities thru above:
* 2020- 5071, 240 7DMA
* 2021- 3954, 189 7DMA
* Despite much higher hosps at this point in the wave, fatalities running ~23% lower than 2020.
6/n .
9/9 Fatalities Part 2
* Another 2020 Death today
* As expected, big reporting day of 405. Potentially could be the biggest # of summer. Due to catch up from Labor Day + we are moving into 2 weeks post hosp peak. Maybe 3-4 days of peak reports before declines start.
* School testing finally hit the ceiling around 8/27 it appears
* What cases do next 2 days will likely determine final peak
* Hosps are poised for big drops this weekend
* Be prepared for big Fatality reports on Fri, Sat, Tues & maybe Wed, then it drops
9/end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
* Total positivity rate as of 9/6 at 13.14%.
* Testing hits Labor Day wall, with big decline, and doubtful it comes back to same rate. 100K+ tests taken right out of the 7DMA on a single day.
* Covidestim Rt up from 0.69 to 0.74
2/n .
9/14 Cases
* New Case Peak 9/14
* 17.3K Cases reported, vs 6.0K last Tues
* Case 7DMA WoW up 31%. Literally all over the place
* This should be the final peak. With Labor Day impacting testing numbers, and huge comps coming up, should not be seeing another new peak set
1) Hospitalizations with a strong decline today 2) Cases- chance of new peak tomorrow, likely last possible new peak date 3) Pos% & testing have flattened thru 1st week of Sep 4) Fatality breakdown on 46 reported
* Total positivity rate as of 9/5 at 13.41%. It has flattened out into first of Sep as of right now
* Testing new high of 1.075 Million tests per week on 9/3
* Rate of growth still all near 0 or decline
* Covidestim Rt declines to 0.69!!
2/n .
9/13 Cases
* 8.1K Cases reported, vs 2.6K last Labor
* Case 7DMA WoW down 3%
* Peak is 9/5
* If 14.7K cases tomorrow, new peak will be set. Which is nuts since Hospitalizations peaked end of August. Its a factor of massive testing and case reporting antiquity
. 3/n
Cases today - 3952
Last Sunday - 6844
Change vs last week - minus 2.9k
7DMA Rate of decline - 13.6%
Today 7DMA - 12999
Peak 7DMA - 15039 9/5
Two super weak comps coming up with about 15K in the 7DMA peak bank. After that its brutal post Labor Day catchup comps
.
2/n
9/12 Hospitalizations
* Hospitalizations - 13230 down from 13285
* Vs yesterday -55. Compared to last Sun daily decline of -25
* 7DMA Rate of decline - 2.8%
* ICU - 3758, -58 from yesterday
The dam should be about to break. Admits dropping more strongly than census
.
3/n
1) Hospitalizations with a strong decline today 2) Cases decline Week over week 3) Saw some Labor Day catch up on tests & positives. A bunch of older tests from end of Aug 4) Fatality breakdown on 357 reported
* Total positivity rate as of 9/3 at 13.51%. Thousands of tests between 8/29 and 9/2, a ton of positives. Should shake itself out by Monday
* Maybe 8 days back isnt far enough
* Rate of growth still all near 0 or decline
* Covidestim Rt holds at 0.72
2/n .
9/11 Cases
* New record 7DMA of 151.3K tests per day on 9/2.
* That's 1.06 Million tests a week. #nuts
* 10.1K Cases reported, vs 13.9K last Sat
* Case 7DMA WoW down 7%
* Peak is 9/5
* Can't guarantee we don't have a new peak on Mon or Tues with low comps of Labor Day
1) Testing & Postive tests on the decline thru 9/2 2) Harris trying to keep this going. Cases flat WoW 3) Hosps down vs yest & Last week. Ready from some strong declines 4) Fatality breakdown on 400 reported
* Total positivity rate as of 9/2 at 12.88% (Changed Calcs to be more accurate)
* Testing through 9/2, definitely a peak late August. Positives were in decline.
* Covidestim with another drop in Rt to 0.72
* Everything at ~0% growth or decline 2/n .
9/10 Cases
* 19.5K Cases reported, vs 19.2K last Fri
* Case 7DMA WoW down 3%
* Peak is 9/5
* Harris dumped 7.5K. Trying their best to keep it going. 2 more tough comps next 2 days, not expecting a new peak at this point. Especially with positives declining through 9/2
1) Testing peaking last week? 2) Big Case catch up day, but new peak maybe not in reach? 3) Hospitalizations down vs last week (LW), even post Labor Day 4) Fatality breakdown on 286 reported. Down again from LW?
* PCR Pos% as of 8/31 at 13.81%
* Testing through 8/31 appears to be forming a peak. 7DMA rate of increase is nearing zero
* Covidestim with huge drop in Rt to .76
* If Tests are cresting w/ declining positivity, this week will see declines in cases
2/n .
9/8 Cases
* 25.1K Cases reported, Labor Day catch up vs 17.0K last Wed
* Case 7DMA WoW up 1.2%
* Peak is 9/5
* 7DMA is over 2K behind peak. With 3 tough comps coming up, don't think there's enough cases left to set a new peak. Especially with tests cresting thru 8/31