Been thinking more about this graph, and I wonder if it shed any light on the NCVS/UCR divergence of the 1970s/1980s. Has anyone seen a paper linking these together?
Because the local fear of crime seems to track the NCVS more than the UCR.
Because the local fear of crime seems to track the NCVS more than the UCR.
https://twitter.com/JohnFPfaff/status/1435819148899147779
If that's right--that the NCVS seems to track ppl's sense of local safety more than generic safety--I have no idea what it means.
Could mean that the NCVS and Gallup suffer from a shared bias... like a weakened ability to reach those most affected by crime.
But... don't know!
Could mean that the NCVS and Gallup suffer from a shared bias... like a weakened ability to reach those most affected by crime.
But... don't know!
I feel like the NCVS/UCR divergence of the 1960s-1980s is one of the less-acknowledged puzzles with crime data, and it strikes me as a big one:
Did CRIME rise in the 1960s-70s? Or its PERCEPTION? Or police INVOLVEMENT?
Or, perhaps the best suggestion I've seen:
Did CRIME rise in the 1960s-70s? Or its PERCEPTION? Or police INVOLVEMENT?
Or, perhaps the best suggestion I've seen:
Perhaps crime fell overall, but rose sharply in concentrated areas, esp in cities, where police were most deployed and which had the best (such as it is) data gathering.
So both capture something real. It's a take consistent w the NCVS-Gallup alignment.
So both capture something real. It's a take consistent w the NCVS-Gallup alignment.
Anyway, I feel like the Gallup local-generic perspective graph, and the NCVS-UCR divergence graph are ones that I can stare at for hours, leaving me absolutely uncertain about pretty much everything.
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