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Deepti Gurdasani

@dgurdasani1

17 Sep

Seeing a lot of minimisation of long COVID again by the usual players based on recent ONS data - interesting that the same people suggesting no one understand ONS methodology, don't seem to have questioned why ONS estimates have changed as much as they have, or what they mean.🧵

So let's get right to it. The ONS infection survey is a very good survey for infection and picks this up through sampling random households in the community. The long COVID survey looks at those who tested positive ~21K people, and compares them to matched controls who were -ve

They ask both groups to answer question about whether they have 1 in 12 symptoms. These symptoms are limited, and don't include things like brain fog, or mood changes, or palpitations, and many other common symptoms of long COVID.

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Deepti Gurdasani

@dgurdasani1

14 Sep

Just did a rather disappointing radio interview on 'living with the virus' and 'acceptable deaths'. I'm honestly so tired of this- I think it's abhorrent & is a statement that's often made by privileged white men who're very unlikely to see the consequences in their own lives.

Vaccines doesn't mean we let 1000 people die each wk, 1000 people go into hospital daily, and tens of thousands develop long COVID each week, when simple things like masks, ventilation, better TTIS systems would save so many people from death & suffering, why would we accept it?

I often wonder if we're so happy to accept this because the people impacted are the ones who're generally let down by govts and society- the least privileged, the poorest, the most vulnerable, and the marginalised.

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Deepti Gurdasani

@dgurdasani1

14 Sep

I've heard some scientists/paediatricians state that the vast majority of children are 'immune' to SARS-CoV-2 infection. There is no current evidence to support this. They seem to be conflating *exposure* with *immunity*. Current serology from PHE puts Abs in 17-19 yr olds at 25%

And no, 1 dose wouldn't be sufficient - given the vast majority are unlikely to have antibodies, and even less likely to be immune against delta...

Believe it or not, immunity after exposure wanes... And starting levels of Abs are often lower in kids who have milder/asymptomatic acute infection.

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Deepti Gurdasani

@dgurdasani1

14 Sep

Current advice put forward by CMOs once again shows a blinkered focus on rare typically mild side-effects of vaccines rather than the substantial benefits of vaccines against long COVID. What evidence do they have that 1 dose is the best strategy in terms of benefits vs risks?

Worth noting here that JCVI still haven't released even their limited analysis examining hospitalisations and ICUs despite the CMO yesterday quoting this, and endorsing it? Surely, given these decisions involved children's healths & lives, these calculations should be released.

And an explanation for why long COVID was not considered, despite more than enough evidence that it affects children. It's interesting that they cite 'uncertainty' for a reason not considering it but do consider 'uncertainty' around improbable long-term impacts of vaccination....

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Deepti Gurdasani

@dgurdasani1

13 Sep

How can JCVI and Chris Whitty say benefits of vaccines to children's health are 'marginal' when they haven't assessed the impact of vaccines in reducing long COVID at all? Why wasn't this assessed, when it affects 1 in 7 children (including 'healthy' children) for 3-4 months?

Let's remember that long COVID prevention by vaccines depends on vaccine efficacy in preventing infection with delta- which depends on having had two doses! Looks like we're once again the exception in most of the world in offering one dose only!

So how on have they made a decision to only offer one dose without assessing the impact of this decision on how many more children will end up with long COVID given current infection rates. PHE data suggests 80,000 10-19 yr olds had COVID-19 the past 2 weeks.

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Deepti Gurdasani

@dgurdasani1

12 Sep

I'm hearing some experts publicly say that most children are 'immune' from SARS-CoV-2 infection and won't benefit from vaccines. I really want to know where they're getting this info from, because the recent PHE estimate for antibodies following infection 17-29 yr olds was 25%.

I'm not aware of recent estimates for kids that suggest this is a lot higher in them. While exposure to infection may have been higher, we know that seroconversion is lower among young people, and possibly children as well, possibly given asymptomatic infection in many.

This assumption seems incorrect to me, and seems to be being paraded out to push a certain narrative - against protecting children from vaccines & mitigations.

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