Not a whole lot of Dems voting for recall. And with Indies split 50-50, this thing had no chance.
Also, doesn't look like there was a big revolt of parents of school-age kids.
LOL - More Trump voters voted against recall than Biden voters voted for recall.
OK, now I want to know who the 18% are who think Newsom's covid policies are not strict enough, but who still want to recall him.
Oy - Newsom's job approval is positive, 54-43. You don't recall a governor whose approvals are in net positive territory!
Good God - Orange County voting against recall by 17 with 61% already reported!
This is just mail-in votes, so OC is not going to end up voting against recall by 17 points. But if 61% of the vote is in, it is pretty much assured that "No" will prevail in Orange County in the end. And probably by several points.
And here's the kicker: map of recent covid hot spots, vaccination rates and recall support cohere pretty well.

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More from @AstorAaron

13 Sep
Didn't realize NYC was tracking cases and hospitalization by vaccination status. So here are the data for the week ending August 28. Unvaccinated are 5X likely to be infected (PCR+) than fully vaccinated. And unvaccinated are 11.4X likely to be hospitalized than fully vaccinated.
Here is the link below. Note that the cases (and hospitalizations to a lesser extent) of vaccinated rise when the unvaxxed cases rise. But for unvaxxed, cases rose from 6/27 from 36 per 100k to 381 per 100k, while vaxxed rose from 6 to 76. www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid…
Breakthrough cases are more apparent because of the increase in raw numbers of them. But the rate of case increase under Delta between vaxxed and unvaxxed was pretty similar. Vaxxed cases jumped 12.6X with Delta while unvaxxed cases jumped 10.5X with Delta.
Read 6 tweets
13 Sep
Interesting that UK may go with a single dose for 12-15s bc of myocarditis risk (esp. boys). I think this is a conversation we should be having in the US too. I don't know if a single dose, delayed second dose, smaller dose (but still two shots), or status quo is best.
Note that this is for 12-15s (and could be part of conversation for 16-18s), and not for under 12s. The trial for under 12s already involves a lower dose, so I would expect the myo risk to be lower as a result (though we'll see soon when results are published).
It's especially important to think this through as mandates become more widespread for younger people. Dosing varies quite a bit. Might it make sense to vary dosing for teens based on weight instead of age? Boys different dose than girls since boys have higher myo risk?
Read 5 tweets
12 Sep
This might be the most important piece you'll read on covid now. We need explicit answers to:
1) What is the goal at this point?
2) Are the goals different regionally? If so, because of different risk tolerance or other reasons?
3) What are the off ramps?
nytimes.com/2021/08/30/opi…
This entire pandemic we've seen both under-reaction and over-reaction. In both situations, we have no discernible goal in mind. I've long argued that the goal should be endemicity, not Zero Covid. That means the virus will circulate, but few will get badly sick.
If Yale is going to push more NPIs with a 99% vaxxed campus, what is the goal there? Where is the off ramp? Meanwhile, here in Tennessee we have less than 50% vaxxed and still plenty of never-infected & not-vaxxed aka "immunologically naive" adults. Hospitals postpone procedures.
Read 12 tweets
11 Sep
Was in my 2nd year of grad school. At @jhroll1's place the night before and watched the Broncos beat the Giants on MNF. A bit hungover that Tuesday morning when my wife called and said, "Turn on the TV. A plane flew into the World Trade Center." Didn't turn it off for 36 hours.
@jhroll1 Later that morning my sister called. "Aaron, what the HELL is going on?" She worked for a building security company in Arlington, VA. Her boss had been driving by the Pentagon on rt 110 when the plane hit. Her company was never more active than after 9/11. Rumors were rampant.
@jhroll1 Weirdly, I remember thinking about the weather. Just stunningly gorgeous. Everywhere. In Chicago. NYC. In the South. It was the height of hurricane season - bad weather could have grounded any of those flights and spoiled the whole plot. Why did the weather have to be so nice?!?
Read 6 tweets
11 Sep
In 1664, Great Britain captured New Amsterdam, leading to the Second Anglo-Dutch War. Britain suffered mightily in that war and lost Suriname to the Dutch. At the Treaty of Breda in 1667, the Dutch decided to keep that sugar colony and let Britain hold on to New York.
The Dutch briefly recaptured New York in 1673 and then lost it again. But the Dutch had decided in 1667 that Suriname was a more valuable prize than the fur trading port town in New Netherland. Sugar made fortunes then. New York's greatness was a century and a half to come.
I begin my Early American History class with this little example bc it illustrates the changing locus of power in the Atlantic World from the 17th to 19th centuries. In the 1660s, North American colonies were of less value than sugar plantations in the Caribbean & South America.
Read 7 tweets
10 Sep
Thinking through the OSHA vax/testing mandate on three levels: 1) Epidemiologically 2) Legally 3) Politically
Best case for it is epidemiological. The mandate gets us quickest to population-level immunity to limit symptom severity and protect the health care system.
Point is not to "eliminate the virus" because that will never happen. Point is to limit severity as hospitals in low-immunity areas have to postpone other procedures. That's not sustainable.
Legally? Like most people, I have no idea exactly how far OSHA rules can be applied. Biden, like other Presidents in both parties, is aggressively interpreting old laws to circumvent Congress. Chances are, he'll get away with it. But I really don't know for sure.
Read 7 tweets

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