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Ali H. Mokdad Profile picture
@AliHMokdad
Sep 15, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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الحالات المبلغ عنها ، والاستشفاء ، والوفيات من #كوفيد١٩ آخذة في الانخفاض في منطقة الشرق الاوسط. 1/ @IHME_UW @WHOEMRO ImageImage
يجب الانتباه والتذكير ان #كوفيد١٩ هو السبب الاول للوفيات في المنطقة الاسبوع السابق وما زال يشكل خطر كبير على الصحة والجهاز الطبي. هذا الفيروس خطير وانتهازي اذا سمحنا له بالانتشار. 2/ Image
طبعا يخفي هذا الانخفاض الإقليمي فروقات مميزة بين الدول مع وصل الى قمة الاصابات والتراجع الواضح في العديد من البلدان (إيران والعراق ، على سبيل المثال) ، واحتمال الوصول الى القمة في لبنان والإمارات والأردن. 3/ Image
من المحتمل أن تستمر الزيادات في انتقال العدوى في كل من مصر وسوريا وفلسطين واليمن و الصومال. 4/ Image
متغير دلتا هو سبب زيادة العدوى في بعض دول المنطقة وازدياد التخالط بين الناس ، حيث يستخدم 40 ٪ فقط الكمامة والحركة هذه الايام هي بالقرب من مستويات ما قبل الجائحة في العديد من البلدان. 5/ ImageImage
قد يؤدي افتتاح المدارس والعودة إلى العمل الشخصي للكثيرين إلى تسريع انتقال العدوى. 6/
bbc.com/news/health-58…
بالنظر إلى الأدلة المتاحة على ضعف المناعة وانخفاض فعالية اللقاحات مع مرور الوقت التي تمنع العدوى مقارنة بفعاليتها بمنع الاستشفاء والوفاة ، فمن غير المرجح أن تنجح استراتيجيات تقليل انتقال العدوى إلى الصفر و أن يمتد انتشار هذا الفيروس والعبء على النظام الصحي إلى ما بعد 2022. end/

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More from @AliHMokdad

Ali H. Mokdad Profile picture
Sep 14, 2022
Our new @IHME_UW #COVID19 projections are out. Estimated infections are declining and reported cases have remained roughly stable in the US overall. 1/
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cu…
Given the widespread use of rapid antigen tests, we estimate the infection-detection rate has declined to nearly 4%. With such a low infection-detection rate, the BA.5 surge that likely peaked in mid-July may have infected a substantial fraction of the population. 2/ Image
This surge, combined with vaccination, suggests that there is considerable immunity to Omicron in most US states. Waning immunity, combined with increased probability of transmission in the fall and winter, will lead to a surge in infections in the late fall and winter. 3/ Image
Read 15 tweets
Ali H. Mokdad Profile picture
Mar 22, 2022
@IHME_UW does not project a #COVID19 surge in the US in the coming weeks similar to what we have seen in parts of Europe. Our models suggest that after the end of March there should be a steady further decline in transmission. 1/ Image
Estimated infections, reported cases, hospital census, and daily deaths continue to decline. Despite a steady return to pre #COVID19 behaviors, transmission continues to decline. 2/ Image
Data reporting in some states is becoming less frequent, and we are detecting more and more anomalies in some states’ data as attention may be turning elsewhere. 3/
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
Read 10 tweets
Ali H. Mokdad Profile picture
Jan 16, 2022
The #Omicron surge is creating unprecedented levels of transmission: the daily infections are estimated to have reached 125 million, ten times the #Delta wave peak in April 2021. @IHME_UW 1/
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cu…
The massive surge in infections, however, is not leading to a 10x increase in deaths because #Omicron is 90-99% less severe. Lower severity is due to three factors: 1) the fraction of people with asymptomatic infection is up from 40% to 80-90%; 2/
2) among those who have symptomatic infections, the hospitalization rate is down 40-60%; and 3) among those hospitalized, the fraction requiring intubation and/or dying is down 80-90%. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Ali H. Mokdad Profile picture
Jan 14, 2022
#Omicron is likely to have spread to nearly all countries by now. The larger fraction asymptomatic means that the massive surge in infections will lead to a smaller but sill unprecedented increase in reported cases. 1/
Hospitalizations will increase, and in some countries this increase will lead to higher levels of hospitalization than in previous surges, including the Delta wave and the Northern Hemisphere winter surge last year. 2/
Extremely high rates above 10% PCR positive of pre-admission screening in hospitals of individuals without #COVID19 symptoms in various parts of the US confirm the intense transmission in the community. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Ali H. Mokdad Profile picture
Jan 9, 2022
@IHME_UW new projections show that daily estimated #COVID19 infections has peaked at 6.2 million on 1/6 in the US, but daily cases will rise to nearly 1.2 million by 1/19, 2022. The infection-detection rate has declined to 22% on January 3. 1/
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
Our model projects 905,000 cumulative reported deaths due to #COVID19 on 5/1, this represents 79,000 additional deaths from 1/3 to 5/1. Daily reported deaths will rise to 1,930 by 1/24, 2022. 2/
Daily hospital census including incidental admissions with #COVID19 will rise to 273,000 by January 25, 2022. We estimate that 57% of people in United States of America have been infected at least once as of January 3. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Ali H. Mokdad Profile picture
Jan 7, 2022
No amount of media training can fix bad messaging, @CDCDirector. The root of this problem, the problem of back and forth messaging coming out of the @CDC_gov, cannot be fixed by one individual working on their personal communication skills. 1/
cnn.com/2022/01/07/pol…
It worries me that @CDCDirector told @CNN: "We actually don't know how our rapid tests perform and how well they predict whether you're transmissible during the end of disease." We need to know how well rapid tests perform at this point in the pandemic. 2/
Is it 5 days or 10 days of isolation after you test positive for #COVID19? Americans shouldn't be making their best guess because of waffling guidance. end/
Read 9 tweets

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