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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

15 Sep, 14 tweets, 2 min read

Gavin Williamson has informed staff at the Dept for Education that he’s leaving the department.

As part of his demotion he was offered Northern Ireland by Boris Johnson.

The most sensitive job in the most sensitive part of UK at its most sensitive time in its last 2 decades.

I should add this has not been officially confirmed yet - depends if Williamson wants to accept it.

In parliamentary lore “going to Northern Ireland” is not something that usually precedes a stellar rise to the high offices of state. It usually signals the end of a career.

Now hearing that Gavin Williamson turned down Northern Ireland job, which makes Johnson’s reshuffle a bit more complicated.

This could drag on about…perhaps even into tomorrow..

Quite a big reshuffle now.

Raab STILL in with PM.

This is getting messy.

Looks like the swift post reshuffle announcement won’t be coming as quickly as media were briefed which normally means that the PM has had to change his reshuffle “on the day” due to ministers refusing to accept demotions or go where they were offered.

Robert Buckland sacked as Justice secretary.

While this was not surprising I was expecting him to stay in the govt..

..so am a little surprised here.

This is all over the place now.

So (just) my speculation

Buckland sacked to make room for someone who was offered his job…but that Johnson offered a position that Buckland didn’t think he could take.

The thought occurs to me that right now Boris Johnson might not actually know who he is going to give Northern Ireland job to…

Can’t help feeling a sensible govt would have kept Buckland on or at least offered him something he could accept…

…makes me uneasy why he had to be removed…& who his successor is…

Justice is not a “sexy” Dept but it can be rather important in some crucial areas…

Robert Jenrick sacked.

Not a surprise.

And unlike Buckland doesn’t deserve anyone’s sympathy.
Awful appointment in 1st place.

This all looks to me like Raab is still “negotiating” with Johnson…

A couple of journalists seem to have now confirmed this…

..except in “more colourful language”.

What a mess.

Looks like Raab wanted keep deputy prime minister title despite losing the high office of foreign minister.

This is hilarious.

So Raab is being simultaneously demoted from the prestigious Foreign ministry but is to become justice secretary and retains deputy prime minister position.

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More from @nicktolhurst

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

16 Sep

Many people still after 5 years don’t get it.
Return of imperial measurements is not a “dead cat”.
It’s a way of punishing the young & the educated.

Just as Brexit isn’t Brexit unless foreigners suffer even if we don’t expel them.
The point is to make their lives more difficult.

It’s a war.
In which there’s no economic gains for most people, so in order for Brexit to be a success “they” must suffer.

Ever additional form an EUer has to fill out satisfies the desire to inflict pain. As does inflicting imperial weights on the young.

The pain is the point.

I keep telling you this but you still don’t learn from history.

In 1930s Germany 90% of people had no idea what state-corporatist-nationalism was. They didn’t care either.

But a “permission to transgress” & the chance to “inflict pain” on others was what led them there.

Read 4 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

13 Sep

One of the worst debates is the climate change one.

It’s fought on risk/cost but regardless of how bad it turns out much of the cost of going carbon neutral is not really a cost drag but substituting out of resources that make people ill, deform environment & fund awful regimes.

In other words the idea that tackling climate change is a very high cost that’s either worth it or not (depending on your view) is not the whole story.

The benefits of a greener run world are huge even if current climate change projections turn out to be a bit alarmist.

Much of the fraught oil debate resembles people worried about what cutting down on smoking will do to the tobacco industry.

Both tobacco & oil are “deadweight industries” that add little in technological advances & money spent on them could be more productively spent elsewhere.

Read 5 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

12 Sep

Question for those obsessing about "Northern redwall seats":

Which area has the highest number of those 32 most marginal Tory held seats, Labour need to win to get Johnson out:

1. North West
2. North East
3. Wales
4. Yorkshire/Humber
5. W. Midlands
6. E. Midlands

....and the answer for, I'm guessing many of you, will be quite surprising....

Here a handy hint.
In population size from highest to lowest:

N. West - 7,341 000
W. Midlands - 5,934 000
Yorkshire + Humber - 5,502 000
E. Midlands - 4,835 000
Wales - 3,113 000
N. East - 2,669 000

Read 5 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

12 Sep

+UPDATE+

Conservative internal polling as well as an Electoral Calculus survey has revealed the Tories stand to lose "in excess of 50 seats" to Labour under current polling.

This is an addition to a number of southern seats expected to drop to the LibDems at the next election.

This fits into what ive been saying for sometime:

LibDem top 20 target seats are virtually all Tory held with small margins
Labour focussing on the top 50 Tory held small marginal seats..

..can deliver quite efficiently a change in govt.

Again, as Ive said before,...the trick to using this is for Labour to concentrate on Tory held small margin seats...that Libdems cant win and..

...LibDems to focus on 20-40 Tory held small margin states where LibDems have the better chance than Labour.

Its not rocket science...

Read 6 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

8 Sep

If you spend your day attacking Starmer because he’s not moving fast enough on Single Market as you’d like, while Johnson is

1. Passing a vote suppression law
2. Axing post Brexit environmental standards
3. Raising taxes on poor to pay for Brexit

Then you really need to WTFU.

The Labour Party is a pro Europe party with pro Europe members, activists, MPs & with most pro EU leader in my lifetime operating in one of the most difficult political contexts post war.

In 480 of the 650 seats it’s the only plausible challenger to the Tories.

Your choice.

The electoral calculus is simple.

There’s circa 20 southern remainerish Tory seats ready to drop to LibDems, the DUP are fading fast.

Labour need only to win back 30-35 seats from Tories.
& many of which usually vote Labour & need a swing of just 1-2%.

It’s not rocket science.

Read 14 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

7 Sep

In my family theres a story about how my great grandfather’s brother wasn’t killed in WWI but “deserted & married a French girl” based on a single letter (now lost) from France.

Are such occurrences more common than we think…or more likely to just be gossipy old myths?

Growing up hearing these stories in late 1970s he was old enough to still be alive then.

I imagined hundreds of British soldiers living out there retirement in northern France still trying to hide their accent after 50 years.

Is there any proof that such things happened?

I was reminded of this again today by Dan Snow’s posting on deserting soldiers being shot.

If the choice is between trench war fire & being shot surely one would expect a number of soldiers to have evaded both - I’d love to know if there’s been any research done on this.

Read 4 tweets

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