Here are estimates of births in Georgia (country, not state) using various methods.
In my view, the student enrollment data by age and the official vital stats data are the most reliable, followed by the reconstructed 2014 census data.
The key thing to understand here is that this implies practically a 10% undercount of recent births in the 2014 Georgian census, which is a massive undercount.
The 2002 census was widely believed to be a huge overcount of adults. It's not clear if this undercount issue might expand to adults as well.
It is possible the school enrollments are inflated, but they *probably* are not, and if they are you'd then need to separately explain why the full vital registry system, rolled out in 2014, is *also* so inflated.
Good question!
Basically, when you ask on a census form, "Who lives here?" there's ambiguity about "lives." Who counts? A college student who is away? A family member working away fro a month? Somebody who has migrated away but still receives mail?
In Georgia's case, the 2002 census included a very badly-designed residence definition which ended up counting a ton of Georgians who had actually emigrated as living-in-Georgia.
However, I have argued elsewhere that I believe the selective-unduplication procedure used by the 2020 Census in the US likely overcounted adults in Puerto Rico in 2020. So this can happen to multiple ways!
But generally, overcounting adults is most likely to happen in cases of unclear, ambiguous, or contested definitions of residency.
As an aside, we should really force the state of Georgia to rename itself. That they are squatting on the name that rightly belongs to the *country* of Georgia is extremely irritating, and I say this as an ethnic (state-of) Georgian by descent!
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(but also if manchin isn't gonna budge having a simple binary work requirement impacts a fairly small share of kids and is still a huge improvement over status quo ante)
getting worried that on the CTC what is going to happen is GOP won't budge at all because there's a million other bad things in the bill and also Dems will fail to agree on something because of perfect-universality-extremists.
whereas im over here saying, giving more money to kids is good, and getting a permanent child allowance for every family with any earnings/employment at all in the prior year would be a massive improvement over what we get when the expansion expires
officially over 1,000 responses to my survey of Lutherans, and over 200 for my broader survey of religion. For all Facebook ads, mass mailing, everything, by the time it's all said and done, I'll have spent ~$2,000, meaning my cost per response is going to be $1.70 or less.
which is hilarious since I was quoted $95/response by a major firm and lots of people told me that was actually not crazy.
now of course my sample isn't random!
but when you're sampling a group which is <1% of the population to begin with via an online sample, *that's not a random sample anyways*
For the first time, the Census Bureau has collected representative population-wide data on gender identity and sexual orientation in the latest two weeks of the Household Pulse Survey. Here are the results by age, one including people who didn't know/refused to respond, one not.
Given the stable age gradient on unclear or refuse responses, I prefer to use the method dropping those respondents to estimate a population parameter, i.e. this graph.
Here's how the non cis-het groups look as line graphs for more clarity on those trends. You can see all such identities have gotten a lot more common in younger cohorts. However, the pace of increasing prevalence is not identical.
war with China would absolutely not be easy to win and could plausibly result in our defeat, which is why it is vital that we prepare more intensively for such a war, and why it is extremely concerning that Milley may have been back-channeling relevant US plans to China.
Milley may have thought China thought we were about to attack. Whether China actually thought that is unclear. And obviously we were *not* about to attack.
Here's the thing though:
Had Milley *not* sent this message, China would have had to debate the matter internally. And they would not have launched a pre-emptive strike because, seriously, that would have been insane.
I think it's a bit much to call it an ideology of masculinity when a lot of it is wildly differential rates of diagnosis for ADD, ADHD, autism, and a gajillion other learning disorders. Differential rates of violent death by sex can be identified in pre-Neolithic remains!
A theory of sex differences in education which doesn't account for the factors we know are OVERWHELMINGLY the most predictive of educational performance (diagnosed learning or attention issues and documented disciplinary issues) seems kind of weird.
And attributing it to a specific masculine ideology is also odd. There may be ideology involved, but the reason for differential rates of male diagnosis for ADHD may be related to ideology, but not an ideology we can call machismo.
the reason we conduct experiments and collect evidence is so that we can reveal those who disagree with us to be cranks and fools, to threaten them with serious costs, penalties, and shame if they persist in the offense of disagreement.
this will be a controversial reading of how science works but i think it's basically correct.
the objective of experiments is to show as clearly as possible that objections *are untenable,* that a rational person *must* agree
that is, they carry with them the not-too-subtle threat that to the extent the new evidence is credible, disagreement marks a person as a cook or a crank of some kind