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Ashley Townshend Profile picture
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15 Sep, 3 tweets, 1 min read
Thread on #AUUKUS: Extremely significant advanced defence tech sharing agreement. Optics perfect for trilateral initiative in Indo-Pacific. Building SSNs in Adelaide is critical given limits of US sub-building industrial base. Strategic and tech transfer wins for Aus. 1/
Biden agreeing trilateral will take on "threats of 21st century" through collective defence industrial base cooperation is major validation of an initiative that has stalled in recent years. Remember: the NTIB expansion was supposed to bring in AUS and UK. Stalled under Trump. 2/
Ensuring that all three allies has the "most modern capabilities" to meet contemporary threats is a sign that the US will put strategic interests -- of its allies and itself -- ahead of legislative and commercial restrictions, as has traditionally been the case. 3/

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More from @ashleytownshend

Ashley Townshend Profile picture
16 Sep
BIG NEWS: There's a force posture nugget in #AUSMIN presser.

Looks like new Australia-United States military bases are on the horizon, which will include a naval component for sustaining combined submarines and surface fleet. Image
The just-released #AUSMIN statement reinforces this.

Major expansion of allied force posture initiatives to include AIR, LAND and SEA elements. Latter is overdue and critical for regional security.

The focus on logistics, sustainment, maintenance is essential for US position. Image
Leveraging Australia's strategic geography to support a more robust US forward military position in the Indo-Pacific is important for ensuring a favourable balance of power in light of China's rising A2AD challenge. This @USSC map shows why. Image
Read 5 tweets
Ashley Townshend Profile picture
16 Sep
THREAD: After yesterday’s #AUKUS plan to deepen defence industrial base integration tailored to Indo-Pacific priorities, today's #AUSMIN presser signals an ambitious collective defence agenda — much of which we have recommended in @USSC reports. 1/
ussc.edu.au/analysis/state… Image
Big things flagged by Austin and Duton:

1) Major force posture initiatives to expand US access and presence in Australia

2) Agree to take immediate steps to improve interoperability through deeper integration

We cover extensively here: ussc.edu.au/analysis/avert… 2/
3) Reaffirmed our commitment to expanding multilateral efforts especially with Japan…and India

4) Greater air coop through rotational deployment of US military aircraft of all types through Australia

We also cover here: ussc.edu.au/analysis/state… 3/ ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Ashley Townshend Profile picture
13 Jun 20
China’s use of coercive statecraft against Australia — disinformation, economic threats, covert foreign interference etc. — is and will remain the day to day reality of international affairs in our region. It’s not the product of a mishandled... 1/ abc.net.au/news/2020-06-1…
...China relationship; it is the way Beijing seeks to advance its interests against countries, like Australia, that do not comply with its preferences and are active in defending their own. So we must approach this grey zone challenge in a bipartisan and whole of society way. 2/
The government is right to pursue multiple internal and external groupings to boost Australia’s resilience and reduce our dependence on China where possible. Five eyes is one promising venue for promoting new tech and R&D partnerships while protecting this from Chinese ties. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Ashley Townshend Profile picture
21 Feb 20
Australia’s move to upgrade RAAF base Tindal for advanced fighters and long-range bombers is a solid investment in our strategic depth and ability to support conventional deterrence. Thx @australian⁩ for noting our @USSC report called for such boosts 1/ theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence…
In Averting Crisis, we argued that in light of the growing mismatch between US strategy and resources, “Canberra should increase security cooperation with Washington and other likeminded partners to advance a strategy of collective regional defence.” 2/ussc.edu.au/analysis/avert…
The Tindal upgrade is a step in this direction. Given its strategic location outside the range of conventional long-range Chinese missiles, but close enough to flashpoints in Southeast Asia and the Pacific etc, Tindal offers value in terms of dispersal, strike and op support. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Ashley Townshend Profile picture
18 Jun 19
The loss of a second Secretary in less than six months is a major blow for the US Dept. of Defense.

It’s likely to hurt implemention of the National Defense Strategy, which calls for prioritising resources for major power competition in the Indo-Pacific. nytimes.com/2019/06/18/us/…
All of the key policy architects and stewards of the NDS have now left the Pentagon — Jim Mattis, Elbridge Colby, Jim Mitre and Pat Shanahan — meaning others will need to pick up the baton. This may happen, but it will be a disrupting process.
Crucially, it will require strategic discipline within Defense and across the national security establishment to (1) work with Congress/Services on properly resourcing the strategy, and (2) say no to requests by Combatant Commands that don’t serve priorities (ie. buildup in Iran)
Read 6 tweets
Ashley Townshend Profile picture
17 Nov 18
Quick take on @VP Pence speech at APEC: Strong affirmation of America’s enduring commitment to Indo-Pacific. But US resources and policy still not well aligned with strategy. On the positive side: new deliverables on smart cities, digital infrastructure, development finance... 1/
regional transparency initiative and Manus military base. These — along with existing progress on BUILD and infrastructure partnerships — point to whole-of-government strategy edging in right direction. On negative side: uncompromising rhetoric on bilateral trade focus... 2/
..., no acknowledgement of region’s preference and need for multilateral trade, uncompromising on tariff war, and muted on climate change action. Plus, insufficient on development aid, foreign military finance, and security assistance. Finally, while Pence did well to... 3/
Read 5 tweets

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