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16 Sep, 8 tweets, 5 min read
THREAD: After yesterday’s #AUKUS plan to deepen defence industrial base integration tailored to Indo-Pacific priorities, today's #AUSMIN presser signals an ambitious collective defence agenda — much of which we have recommended in @USSC reports. 1/
ussc.edu.au/analysis/state…
Big things flagged by Austin and Duton:

1) Major force posture initiatives to expand US access and presence in Australia

2) Agree to take immediate steps to improve interoperability through deeper integration

We cover extensively here: ussc.edu.au/analysis/avert… 2/
3) Reaffirmed our commitment to expanding multilateral efforts especially with Japan…and India

4) Greater air coop through rotational deployment of US military aircraft of all types through Australia

We also cover here: ussc.edu.au/analysis/state… 3/
5) Establish combined logistics, sustainment and capability for maintenance to support our enhanced capabilities…incl for our submarines and surface combatants in Australia

We called for here: 4/ ussc.edu.au/analysis/avert…
6) Will be complemented by conducting more bilateral exercises and greater combined exercise engagement with partners in the region

Explored in our work on deterrence with @PacificForum, including this report: 5/ ussc.edu.au/analysis/opera…
7) Agreed to cooperate on the development of Australia’s guided weapons and explosive ordnance capability.

My former colleague @BrendanTN_ and I have called for this for some time, including in his report Ebbing Opportunity ussc.edu.au/analysis/austr… 6/
These seven lines of effort are critical to advancing collective deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. They support Australia's plan in 2020 Defence Strategic Update to contribute ambitiously to a stable regional order, which I write about for @IISS_org here: 7/
Looking forward to dissecting the 2021 #AUSMIN Communique shortly...! 8/8

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More from @ashleytownshend

Ashley Townshend Profile picture
16 Sep
BIG NEWS: There's a force posture nugget in #AUSMIN presser.

Looks like new Australia-United States military bases are on the horizon, which will include a naval component for sustaining combined submarines and surface fleet.
The just-released #AUSMIN statement reinforces this.

Major expansion of allied force posture initiatives to include AIR, LAND and SEA elements. Latter is overdue and critical for regional security.

The focus on logistics, sustainment, maintenance is essential for US position.
Leveraging Australia's strategic geography to support a more robust US forward military position in the Indo-Pacific is important for ensuring a favourable balance of power in light of China's rising A2AD challenge. This @USSC map shows why.
Read 7 tweets
Ashley Townshend Profile picture
13 Jun 20
China’s use of coercive statecraft against Australia — disinformation, economic threats, covert foreign interference etc. — is and will remain the day to day reality of international affairs in our region. It’s not the product of a mishandled... 1/ abc.net.au/news/2020-06-1…
...China relationship; it is the way Beijing seeks to advance its interests against countries, like Australia, that do not comply with its preferences and are active in defending their own. So we must approach this grey zone challenge in a bipartisan and whole of society way. 2/
The government is right to pursue multiple internal and external groupings to boost Australia’s resilience and reduce our dependence on China where possible. Five eyes is one promising venue for promoting new tech and R&D partnerships while protecting this from Chinese ties. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Ashley Townshend Profile picture
21 Feb 20
Australia’s move to upgrade RAAF base Tindal for advanced fighters and long-range bombers is a solid investment in our strategic depth and ability to support conventional deterrence. Thx @australian⁩ for noting our @USSC report called for such boosts 1/ theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence…
In Averting Crisis, we argued that in light of the growing mismatch between US strategy and resources, “Canberra should increase security cooperation with Washington and other likeminded partners to advance a strategy of collective regional defence.” 2/ussc.edu.au/analysis/avert…
The Tindal upgrade is a step in this direction. Given its strategic location outside the range of conventional long-range Chinese missiles, but close enough to flashpoints in Southeast Asia and the Pacific etc, Tindal offers value in terms of dispersal, strike and op support. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Ashley Townshend Profile picture
18 Jun 19
The loss of a second Secretary in less than six months is a major blow for the US Dept. of Defense.

It’s likely to hurt implemention of the National Defense Strategy, which calls for prioritising resources for major power competition in the Indo-Pacific. nytimes.com/2019/06/18/us/…
All of the key policy architects and stewards of the NDS have now left the Pentagon — Jim Mattis, Elbridge Colby, Jim Mitre and Pat Shanahan — meaning others will need to pick up the baton. This may happen, but it will be a disrupting process.
Crucially, it will require strategic discipline within Defense and across the national security establishment to (1) work with Congress/Services on properly resourcing the strategy, and (2) say no to requests by Combatant Commands that don’t serve priorities (ie. buildup in Iran)
Read 6 tweets
Ashley Townshend Profile picture
17 Nov 18
Quick take on @VP Pence speech at APEC: Strong affirmation of America’s enduring commitment to Indo-Pacific. But US resources and policy still not well aligned with strategy. On the positive side: new deliverables on smart cities, digital infrastructure, development finance... 1/
regional transparency initiative and Manus military base. These — along with existing progress on BUILD and infrastructure partnerships — point to whole-of-government strategy edging in right direction. On negative side: uncompromising rhetoric on bilateral trade focus... 2/
..., no acknowledgement of region’s preference and need for multilateral trade, uncompromising on tariff war, and muted on climate change action. Plus, insufficient on development aid, foreign military finance, and security assistance. Finally, while Pence did well to... 3/
Read 5 tweets
Ashley Townshend Profile picture
21 Jul 18
So many Australians are calling for a rethink of our foreign policy and US alliance because of Trump. While this makes sense it's only part of the story. Trump's antics are a confidence killer. But relative power changes in Asia are the real worry. 1/
brisbanetimes.com.au/world/north-am…
America's enduring ability to maintain its leading role in Asia was in doubt long before Trump took office. It's relative economic weight has been declining for decades, and its military -- while the world's largest -- is globally stretched. 2/
Meanwhile, China has developed military assets to make America's regional presence more costly and risky. And it is actively seeking to displace US leadership through its trade linkages, political influence and geo-economic offerings like the BRI. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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