Thread by @althecat

The Ethiopian-Tigray Crisis-War has reached what looks like a turning point. The rumours, which are everywhere, that @POTUS @JoeBiden is about to sanction Ethiopia and Eritrea are clearly being telegraphed for a reason.

@POTUS @JoeBiden E.G. this is one of the most recent ones. And this one is weirdly specific. "18 Hours". sounds like there will be a press conference or something.

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1438539900895350789?s=20

Apparently the announcement of the sanctions has been approved. On the day that @KarenBassTweets was due to depart for Ethiopia on CODEL (Congressional Delegation) visit. However this seems to have been postponed, now till 27th-29th September. Which is odd.

It was unlikely that this meeting with Tewodros Teshome caused the delay - even though it was simultaneously cathartic and diplomatically unfortunate. .

Much more likely, the delay is due to whatever Biden is scheduled to announce.

. @RedaGetachew's very unwise @AbiyAhmedAli bashing interview with Egypt TV probably provides a better clue as to what is going on.... The TPLF is disintegrating.

Just three days ago a very different, though clearly equally panicking @RedaGetachew gave a late New Years interview in which he appears to have tried to stick to a vaguely sane script.

There were two other big hints yesterday that something big is going down:

1. This statement from the Minister of Peace Muferihat Kamil addressed the catastrophe that is underway in Wollo/Wello. Notably it includes Intl. aid agency agreement to help.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1438163032555786246?s=20

2. The ENDF posted a notice addressing youth and militias fighting for the TPLF, telling them that if they surrender peacefully they can expect to be dealt with generously.

@AAAquaponics provided a translation of the statement into English >>

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1438238965849591826?s=20

The statements are strong & reflect on:
a) how many of us feel about the horrific events that have been taking place in Amhara for the past two months, and;
b) the new TPLF induced starvation threat, following 2 months of death, destruction, rape & looting.

On the US side the fact that the sanctions are said to be about to be imposed by the President, rather than @SecBlinken, or @Treasury etc. is also a significant escalation.

https://twitter.com/farahmaalimm/status/1438519700447657988?s=21

And the idea of imposing them with a deadline also seems like an escalation. Certainly very overtly coercive. They will likely call for Ethiopia to enter into ceasefire negotiations with TPLF and for Eritrean troops to withdraw. Neither of which will be agreed to.

And from a diplomacy 101 perspective asking for something that you are not going to get under a deadline is setting yourself up to get a lot of egg on your face, it makes little to no sense. But then none of the USG's moves have made much sense for months now.

The simplest explanation for what appears to happening (Occams Razor) is that senior US officials believe some nonsense being told to them by the TPLF, perhaps about concentration camps and bodies in the Tekeze, and are also aware that the TPLF are about to be defeated.

Another explanation, or contributing factor, might be other crises breaking out. Djibouti's President is apparently in Paris and may or may not be dead.
& Somalia's PM Roble has just been sacked by the Somalia President.

https://twitter.com/SomaliPM/status/1438583165237530629?s=20

Somalia being Somalia there is a non-zero chance of this turning into a firefight. And Kenya appears to be involved in the affair. An unsanctioned visit by Roble to meet President Kenyatta a few days ago is one of the reasons he was sacked.

And while the GERD negotiations may be back on, the level of tension on the Sudan border is at very high levels. There are rumours that Egyptian supplied tanks are in the area with Sudanese crews and that a light aircraft was shot down a few days ago.

However these regional stability issues also don't provide any rational reason to be threatening sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea, as most of these issues are not being caused by either.

Some creative and helpful mediation and advice would be much more useful.

Kenya will doubtless be upset about what is happening in Somalia, and may have escalated to UNSC. However they are not on solid ground, having abducted @AbdiwahabSheik7, a TPLF critic who had been blowing the whistle on Roble, prior to being bundled into a 4WD in Nairobi on 9/9.

@AbdiwahabSheik7 In Washington circles they say the job of the @AsstSecStateAF - currently Robert F. Godec, a former Nairobi Ambassador - is to keep Africa off the desk of the President. Which makes the ceremony and drama around these telegraphed sanctions all the more odd.

Especially with the active interest of the very influential Congressional Black Caucus Chair @RepKarenBass / @KarenBassTweets in Ethiopia. The last minute postponement of her visit also looks very bad.

Timing wise this is also very odd.

Just six days ago, Sept. 10th @FLOTUS @DrBiden and @POTUS @JoBiden sent a polite and very diplomatic congratulatory message to the peoples of Ethiopia for Enkutatash. whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

To turn around on a dime and suddenly threaten sanctions in these circumstances would seem very politically unwise, especially after the recent FP debacle in Afghanistan, a debacle which is increasingly being referred to by analysts in relation to policy mistakes in the HoA.

Anyway, we will soon see.

Based on @Joyce_Karam's timing, 18 hours from four hours ago is midday Washington time tomorrow. 6pm CEST and 7pm EAT.

Watch this space.

@Joyce_Karam /ENDS

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