Thread by @ashleytownshend

So many Australians are calling for a rethink of our foreign policy and US alliance because of Trump. While this makes sense it's only part of the story. Trump's antics are a confidence killer. But relative power changes in Asia are the real worry. 1/
brisbanetimes.com.au/world/north-am…

America's enduring ability to maintain its leading role in Asia was in doubt long before Trump took office. It's relative economic weight has been declining for decades, and its military -- while the world's largest -- is globally stretched. 2/

Meanwhile, China has developed military assets to make America's regional presence more costly and risky. And it is actively seeking to displace US leadership through its trade linkages, political influence and geo-economic offerings like the BRI. 3/

These changing power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific are the main reason why Australia needs to boost its strategic self-reliance and rethink its foreign policy. Trump in many ways is the shock messenger for a set of worrying regional trends we were already tracking. 4/

Indeed, we have been adjusting to prepare for this new reality for far longer than Trump has been in the White House. Australia, Japan, India, Singapore and other US partners have been networking and boosting regional security contributions with this difficult future in mind. 5/

The collective effort to build an Indo-Pacific balance of power by the US, Australia, Japan and to a lesser degree India has also been in progress for some years; and was very much an aim of Obama's pivot to Asia. 6/

For Australia, as I wrote for the AFR last week, this collective approach is already a strategic Plan B -- based on the recognition that our alliance Plan A for the region (a sustained American security umbrella) is no longer viable. See here: afr.com/news/policy/fo… 7/

Trump makes Indo-Pacific strategy harder to achieve because of his hostility to allies and preference for cutting US investments abroad. But his antics are not the root cause of the structural problems that both the US and its partners face in Asia. 8/

If Trump's shock therapy in Asia spurs greater independent efforts by Australia and others to further increase contributions to regional stability, this will be a silver lining. But sustained US resources and leadership is what Asia needs to effectively carry out its Plan B. 9/9