I write #PerspectiveandContext on @SubstackInc and @Medium and will try and give both on the #AUKUS security announcement and the spillover negative effect of 🇦🇺reneging on its giant submarine contract with 🇫🇷.
For personal context: I was born in FR&now a dual FR CA citizen.
Background: 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇫🇷 cooperated closely during WW2 in New Caledonia and Noumea became the main rear naval base after Pearl Harbor. 182ndinfantry.org/defending-new-…
My take: 🇺🇸 doesn’t respect 🇫🇷’s strategic role in the Pacific region b/c it analyzes, perhaps rightly, that France doesn’t belong there fully and its presence is residual, at best, and post-colonial. I don't agree.
French Polynesia and New Caledonia are fully 🇫🇷 territories but the 🇺🇸 analyzes and considers that they’re already quasi independent.
Both territories enjoy increased autonomy but are still closely tied to 🇫🇷in countless ways, w a premium on military, financial and economic.
IMO this means official DC & the Pentagon thinks it can collaborate w 🇫🇷 in Africa&Mideast yet “stab it in the back” as it forces the ripping up of this giant 🇦🇺🇫🇷military equipment contract worth more than 50B euros.
The intel&military collaboration between 🇫🇷 and 🇺🇸 is deep and already an extension of the 5 Eyes treaty. mainichi.jp/english/articl…
Re ISIS: French forces have killed Adnan Abou Walid al Sahraoui, leader of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISIS-GS), in a drone strike, the French government announced on Thursday. edition.cnn.com/2021/09/16/afr…
.@JoeBiden specifically mentioned 🇫🇷 as a key ally last night as the #AUKUS was announced. IMO part of the ripping up of the contract will involve recycling part of the already started naval program&🇫🇷 will get a junior partner role. The Pentagon needs 🇫🇷&will do what's needed
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48 hours after the #AUKUS announcement, it's surprising there's not more analysis/coverage of the REAL transformative deal, which has NOTHING to do re subs but about US deployment of forces in Oz. reuters.com/world/australi…
the #submarines deal is a small facet of a much larger shift towards a NATO-style linkup in the Indo-Pac region. When FR furor calms down, there's a high level of probability that FR&EU will be integrated to #AUKUS, FR is the natural partner given its presence in the region.
Japan's constitutional constraints re military engagements make it a nominal partner, Korea is much less constrained and both will also be integrated in #AUKUS, because geography > short term snafus.
My 2 cts: Zuck’s stoicism is a huge weakness and he will act all surprised when the government regulates/breaks up fb >> Zuckerberg Refuses Responsibility for Facebook’s Latest, Greatest Scandal vanityfair.com/news/2018/11/m…? via @mekosoff
Huge 🔥 from @PublicisGroupe - Zuck+Sandberg will start to become even more radioactive and government intervention will accelerate. Can someone send Zuck a history book re Standard Oil or does he refuse to see reality? nytimes.com/2018/11/15/bus…#techlash
Should Zuck be interested, he can search #techlash here and look up my tweets over the past 2 years warning him about what is to happen to his company. #ohwell
#perspective 2018's first 12 days have been a rollercoaster of Trumpian reactive oxygen-sucking media cycles, ranging from the "i got a bigger nuke button" to @MichaelWolffNYC s Fire&Fury to the shithole controversy, to finish w/ Stormy Daniels 1/
Sober,rational analysts of our current feverish "moment" are few&far between- @RadioFreeTom@NoahCRothman@ianbremmer@umairh try to provide sustenance to who are interested in immediate&mid-long term consequences of the circus show started on the gold plated escalator in 2015 2/
Throwing my hat into the ring, some random observations to pierce the #Trumpian-media feedback loop (ICYMI @MattGertz's must-follow tweets) : Trump's #Outsourced Presidency could have lasting consequences as it paradoxically shows 2 facets 3/