I write #PerspectiveandContext on @SubstackInc and @Medium and will try and give both on the #AUKUS security announcement and the spillover negative effect of 🇦🇺reneging on its giant submarine contract with 🇫🇷.

For personal context: I was born in FR&now a dual FR CA citizen.
Background: 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇫🇷 cooperated closely during WW2 in New Caledonia and Noumea became the main rear naval base after Pearl Harbor. 182ndinfantry.org/defending-new-…

#NouvelleCaledonie #Noumea ImageImage
My take: 🇺🇸 doesn’t respect 🇫🇷’s strategic role in the Pacific region b/c it analyzes, perhaps rightly, that France doesn’t belong there fully and its presence is residual, at best, and post-colonial. I don't agree.
French Polynesia and New Caledonia are fully 🇫🇷 territories but the 🇺🇸 analyzes and considers that they’re already quasi independent.
Both territories enjoy increased autonomy but are still closely tied to 🇫🇷in countless ways, w a premium on military, financial and economic.
IMO this means official DC & the Pentagon thinks it can collaborate w 🇫🇷 in Africa&Mideast yet “stab it in the back” as it forces the ripping up of this giant 🇦🇺🇫🇷military equipment contract worth more than 50B euros.
The intel&military collaboration between 🇫🇷 and 🇺🇸 is deep and already an extension of the 5 Eyes treaty. mainichi.jp/english/articl… Image
Re ISIS: French forces have killed Adnan Abou Walid al Sahraoui, leader of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISIS-GS), in a drone strike, the French government announced on Thursday. edition.cnn.com/2021/09/16/afr… Image
.@JoeBiden specifically mentioned 🇫🇷 as a key ally last night as the #AUKUS was announced. IMO part of the ripping up of the contract will involve recycling part of the already started naval program&🇫🇷 will get a junior partner role. The Pentagon needs 🇫🇷&will do what's needed

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Frederic Guarino 💉

Frederic Guarino 💉 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @fredericg

18 Sep
48 hours after the #AUKUS announcement, it's surprising there's not more analysis/coverage of the REAL transformative deal, which has NOTHING to do re subs but about US deployment of forces in Oz. reuters.com/world/australi…

cc @marcaross

#Australia Image
the #submarines deal is a small facet of a much larger shift towards a NATO-style linkup in the Indo-Pac region. When FR furor calms down, there's a high level of probability that FR&EU will be integrated to #AUKUS, FR is the natural partner given its presence in the region.
Japan's constitutional constraints re military engagements make it a nominal partner, Korea is much less constrained and both will also be integrated in #AUKUS, because geography > short term snafus.
Read 6 tweets
16 Nov 18
My 2 cts: Zuck’s stoicism is a huge weakness and he will act all surprised when the government regulates/breaks up fb >> Zuckerberg Refuses Responsibility for Facebook’s Latest, Greatest Scandal vanityfair.com/news/2018/11/m…? via @mekosoff
Huge 🔥 from @PublicisGroupe - Zuck+Sandberg will start to become even more radioactive and government intervention will accelerate. Can someone send Zuck a history book re Standard Oil or does he refuse to see reality?
nytimes.com/2018/11/15/bus… #techlash
Should Zuck be interested, he can search #techlash here and look up my tweets over the past 2 years warning him about what is to happen to his company. #ohwell
Read 39 tweets
13 Jan 18
#perspective 2018's first 12 days have been a rollercoaster of Trumpian reactive oxygen-sucking media cycles, ranging from the "i got a bigger nuke button" to @MichaelWolffNYC s Fire&Fury to the shithole controversy, to finish w/ Stormy Daniels 1/
Sober,rational analysts of our current feverish "moment" are few&far between- @RadioFreeTom @NoahCRothman @ianbremmer @umairh try to provide sustenance to who are interested in immediate&mid-long term consequences of the circus show started on the gold plated escalator in 2015 2/
Throwing my hat into the ring, some random observations to pierce the #Trumpian-media feedback loop (ICYMI @MattGertz's must-follow tweets) : Trump's #Outsourced Presidency could have lasting consequences as it paradoxically shows 2 facets 3/
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(