Thread by @fredericg

48 hours after the #AUKUS announcement, it's surprising there's not more analysis/coverage of the REAL transformative deal, which has NOTHING to do re subs but about US deployment of forces in Oz. reuters.com/world/australi…

cc @marcaross

#Australia

the #submarines deal is a small facet of a much larger shift towards a NATO-style linkup in the Indo-Pac region. When FR furor calms down, there's a high level of probability that FR&EU will be integrated to #AUKUS, FR is the natural partner given its presence in the region.

Japan's constitutional constraints re military engagements make it a nominal partner, Korea is much less constrained and both will also be integrated in #AUKUS, because geography > short term snafus.

all in: @JoeBiden has the right instincts w/ #AUKUS IMO but the actual execution of the deal could have been MUCH better. SecState Blinken will have to do substantial "clean-up" in Paris, in a matter of weeks if 🇺🇸is serious.

@JoeBiden Last point: this deal w FR could very well have been a massive head fake by Oz, whose military was surely already concerned in 16 by China's increased presence. FR could have been used as a stalking horse here and should calm down&offer to be integrated on a security basis.

And right on cue ➡️ the cleanup phase begins: “@EmmanuelMacron and @JoeBiden will have a phone call in the coming days “at Biden’s request”
politico.eu/article/emmanu…
#AUKUS