Worth knowing:
Economic growth can only offer, via deeply implausible future scenarios, an horrific 1.9°C-2.4°C future.
And if best estimates are wrong, it's 2.5°C-5.7°C climate hell.
Only postgrowth emergency action could aim for (still disastrous) 1.5°C-1.8°C.
A thread..🧵
Economic growth can only offer, via deeply implausible future scenarios, an horrific 1.9°C-2.4°C future.
And if best estimates are wrong, it's 2.5°C-5.7°C climate hell.
Only postgrowth emergency action could aim for (still disastrous) 1.5°C-1.8°C.
A thread..🧵
1.
'long-term net-zero targets that have robust plans for reducing emissions by 2030 would reduce the uncertainty in temperatures beyond this year, and could limit heating to 1.9-2.0°C.'
* 'could' *
The headline is misleading: 1.5-1.8°C is not in reach. phys.org/news/2021-09-c…
'long-term net-zero targets that have robust plans for reducing emissions by 2030 would reduce the uncertainty in temperatures beyond this year, and could limit heating to 1.9-2.0°C.'
* 'could' *
The headline is misleading: 1.5-1.8°C is not in reach. phys.org/news/2021-09-c…
2.
Net Zero 2050? It's a sham.
* 2.0–2.4°C utter calamity even if national emission targets are fully implemented
* 2.4–2.9°C (pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement)
* 2.7–3.5°C (currently implemented policies)
phys.org/news/2021-09-c…
* 'window' *nature.com/articles/s4155…
Net Zero 2050? It's a sham.
* 2.0–2.4°C utter calamity even if national emission targets are fully implemented
* 2.4–2.9°C (pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement)
* 2.7–3.5°C (currently implemented policies)
phys.org/news/2021-09-c…
* 'window' *nature.com/articles/s4155…
3.
Reality:
Emissions are projected to rise to record levels in the next 18 months.
We're at 420 ppm of CO2, heading for 450 ppm by 2031, and 550 ppm by 2047.
Continued economic growth will condemn species to 2°C-6°C in decades, with 3°C-4.5°C likely.
theconversation.com/just-how-sensi…
Reality:
Emissions are projected to rise to record levels in the next 18 months.
We're at 420 ppm of CO2, heading for 450 ppm by 2031, and 550 ppm by 2047.
Continued economic growth will condemn species to 2°C-6°C in decades, with 3°C-4.5°C likely.
theconversation.com/just-how-sensi…
4.
A rapid postgrowth transition could keep us below 1.5-2°C this century unless The Devil's Bargain of aerosol unmasking and/or tropical rainforest collapse and/or Arctic sea ice destruction makes our predicament worse than already feared.
boell.de/en/2020/12/09/…
A rapid postgrowth transition could keep us below 1.5-2°C this century unless The Devil's Bargain of aerosol unmasking and/or tropical rainforest collapse and/or Arctic sea ice destruction makes our predicament worse than already feared.
boell.de/en/2020/12/09/…
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