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18 Sep, 8 tweets, 4 min read
BREAKING: the UN has indicated that with today's plans for economic growth Earth's species will likely suffer profoundly catastrophic global heating of somewhere between 1.65 and 2 degrees Celsius by the 2030s
Where are the appropriate headlines?

There won't ever be any, not in state-corporate media anyway.

Extinction is driven by the whole global growth economy of industrial agriculture, logging, road-building, mining, war, etc

2.5-3C by the 2050s?

Thread:
What happens at 2°C?

100s of billions of tonnes of CO2 will likely be released from soils..

Corporate media won't tell you

1) 2.7°C (or even more) is possible/plausible/likely by 2050-2070 nevermind 2100, and

2) 1.5-2°C is utter horror for millions of species (declines/extinctions).

The problem is economic growth, but the UN won't admit it.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2021/…
Capitalist pledges are lies.

IPCC assumptions about the near-term creation of a vast carbon-sucking industry are extreme.

And 'countries [are] aiming to produce 120% more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C'unep.org/resources/repo…
The IPCC AR6 report (first part) from August has been completely dropped by media outlets. Reading between the lines, it is terrifying according to scientists:
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

⚠️This week's report implies economic growth won't keep us below 1.8°C:
unfccc.int/news/full-ndc-…
'Full NDC Synthesis Report: Some Progress, but Still a Big Concern'

Progress?

ffs

We're at 420 ppm which means carbon cycle feedbacks may well already be beyond us. We're facing 475-550 ppm by the 2040s.

Progressing towards horrific mass extinction.

unfccc.int/news/full-ndc-…
'some studies have indicated the IPCC’s “worst case scenario”, in which temperatures rise by up to 5C by the end of the century, remains the most accurate model'

(Nov 2020)

The new 2021 IPCC report: 5C is possibe.

Climate justice & postgrowth action now.independent.co.uk/climate-change…

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Ben See Profile picture
17 Sep
new peer-reviewed science: a temperature increase of 5.2 °C above the pre-industrial level at present rates of increase would likely result in mass extinction comparable to that of the major Phanerozoic events, even without other, non-climatic anthropogenic impacts

journalists:
1.
We're heading for somewhere between 2.5 °C and 6 °C with collapsing rainforests and Arctic sea ice destruction within decades on the current economic growth pathway.

The implications are staggering.

But guess what? Corporate mass media remain silent.nature.com/articles/s4146…
2.
The biosphere is being smashed by industrial agriculture, logging, road building, mining, pollution - the global growth economy.

We're currently heading for 2°C-3°C within a few decades.

Which/How many species might survive such extreme conditions?
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
17 Sep
Worth knowing:

Economic growth can only offer, via deeply implausible future scenarios, an horrific 1.9°C-2.4°C future.

And if best estimates are wrong, it's 2.5°C-5.7°C climate hell.

Only postgrowth emergency action could aim for (still disastrous) 1.5°C-1.8°C.

A thread..🧵
1.
'long-term net-zero targets that have robust plans for reducing emissions by 2030 would reduce the uncertainty in temperatures beyond this year, and could limit heating to 1.9-2.0°C.'

* 'could' *

The headline is misleading: 1.5-1.8°C is not in reach. phys.org/news/2021-09-c…
2.
Net Zero 2050? It's a sham.

* 2.0–2.4°C utter calamity even if national emission targets are fully implemented

*  2.4–2.9°C (pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement)

* 2.7–3.5°C (currently implemented policies)

phys.org/news/2021-09-c…

* 'window' *nature.com/articles/s4155…
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
15 Sep
BREAKING: abrupt climate change will more than triple thе proportion of cropland affected by drought by the 2040s
Analysis of corporate media is essential with much useful information to be found.

But a basic reality is omitted: we're heading for >460 ppm of atmospheric CO2 and 2°C horror by 2036-2045.

Fair emergency action to protect everyone may yet be achieved. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
'BREAKING' is ironic as we've known for years that crop yields will be negatively affected by climate change much earlier than once expected:

'we will see, on average, an increasingly negative impact of climate change on crop yields from the 2030s onwards'phys.org/news/2014-03-c…
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
13 Sep
BREAKING: Earth's 8.7 million species call for immediate system change
60% of primate species are threatened with extinction, 75% are declining.

Main threat: habitat destruction due to logging/agriculture.

Hunting, road construction, oil & gas extraction, mining, pollution, disease, and climate change are also key threats. theconversation.com/60-of-primate-…
40-60% of tree species are threatened with extinction.

dumptheguardian.com/environment/20…

more than half of species are only found in one country, suggesting vulnerability to potential threats, such as deforestation from extreme weather events or human activity.

bbc.com/news/science-e…
Read 20 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
12 Sep
Dr James Hansen, climate scientist, 2008:

"If you leave us at 450ppm for long enough it will probably melt all the ice - that's a sea rise of 75 metres. What we have found is that the target we have all been aiming for is a guaranteed disaster".

Our trajectory: 450ppm by 2032.
1. "if we follow business as usual I can't see how west Antarctica could survive a century. We are talking about a sea-level rise of at least a couple of metres this century."

That wrecks coastal cities.

Corporate media like Gdn are now silent on 450ppm.
dumptheguardian.com/environment/20…
2. Rapid transition to a postgrowth economy via careful, emergency, climate justice action is required now. It'll be extraordinary if we avoid 2C by 2035-2050 but we must try to limit the damage and protect everyone. Today's growth economy must go.

Thread:
Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
12 Sep
Editors and journalists are shamefully silent on the scientific projections that show without action on inequity billions of people exploited in poverty will face multiple high level food, water and energy risks from 2026-2035 due to ecological collapse and abrupt climate change.
1.
State-corporate media are busy protecting today's ultra-destructive global growth economy of which they are a key part and so only occasionally pay lip service to crucial ideas of climate justice.

It's not too late for fair, radical system change.

⬇️
2.
To limit the damage and suffering requires profound system change.

Read 4 tweets

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