Thread by @Biotech2k1

@HassanAesthetic Profile $VERV:

1/ This is probably my least favorite of the CRISPR companies. They just licensed all the base editing tech for use in liver diseases around cholesterol from $BEAM. They even licensed their use of the LNP vectors from another company.

2/ Other than their biology understanding of these diseases, I don't know what they actually bring to the table. They are focused on PCSK9 for their lead asset. The preclinical data looks good. This technology still has all the same concerns in humans a the $BEAM base editors.

3/ They throw around huge numbers for these indications, but the actual patients that would opt for these therapies are probably around 1,500 to 3,000. That would put this in the $1.5 billion to $3 billion at best case numbers.

4/ $BEAM has opt in rights to 50% of the US on any indications they chose. Even if they don't they still lose about 20% in royalties to both their licenses. If we plot this on a bell curve for a 8 year cycles, they would peak at $1 billion in year 4 or 5.

5/ I know $AMGN has the current top PCSK9 drug on the market with only $550 million per year in sales. There is already a lot of competition in this space with very good drugs.

6/ Their second program is for another liver indication for hyper triglycerides. This would probably match the same numbers as their first program for $1 billion.

7/ Based on the lack of human data, I can't justify a valuation of more than $2 billion for this company. Its like they are just a subsidiary of $BEAM.

8/ I don't like this space they are targeting for cholesterol. There is so much competition and so few really bad patients that would opt into this kind of program. There are already very successful PCSK9 drugs on the market that work well.