Thread by @jonst0kes

Lotta good responses here, but also:

- Supply chain is a pipeline, & some of what we're seeing now is just problems that started last year popping out the other end.
- China's manufacturing centers have been hit by heavy flooding & Delta. Also their shipping is hit by Delta.

https://twitter.com/interpretantion/status/1439309280021291011

- Other ports & manufacturing centers have been taken offline by Delta (I think Viet Nam & Indonesia are worst affected, but I may be recalling incorrectly).
- The system was already fragile, & Delta + aforementioned time-delay-based shocks hurt it even worse.

- In general, the system is complex, highly interconnected, & prone to cascade effects & crashes. So failure modes are hard to predict & even reason about in real time.
- Shipping will remain constrained until COVID is over because the cartels don't want to increase capacity...

...until they know they can fill the boats.

I think the short answer to the OT is: supply chains were actually breaking a year ago, but there was inventory buffer & so on. Now that buffer is emptying out + they're breaking even worse.

Also, feedback loop dynamics mean they're breaking because they're breaking.

Regarding that last point, it's a little bit like a bank run. Once a run kicks off, then the answer to "why is there a bank run?" becomes "because there is a bank run."

Y'know, we're REALLY lucky that the developed world is awash in cheap food, & that we waste a crap-ton of it (some 30-40% is wasted). That excess and immense wastage has probably save us from a lot more crazy, b/c if it had been tight going into 2019 we'd be screwed.