Thread by @tdarling1

Global Macro Review 09/19/2021

1/13

#OPEX did not disappoint.

Volatility ↗️, SPX sold ↘️, and the USD ↗️ for the 2nd week in a row, causing damage to EU and EM longs.

Let’s dig in to the damage done and opportunities ahead

(Please retweet ❤️)

2/13

After coming in early in the week, equity vol (especially VIX) accelerated into OPEX, but ended ↘️ for the week

$VIX 20.81 -0.67%
$VXN 22.27 -2.11%
$RVX 26.43 -6.57
$VXEEM 24.26 +3.03%

Chart: $VIX weekly +0.53% on a (T) duration (3-months) and finding resistance

3/13

True to #OPEX form $SPX closed ↘️ for the second week in a row taking $COMPQ with it while $IWM eked out small gain

$SPX 4433 -0.57% ♉️
$COMPQ 14054 -0.47% ♉️
$IWM 222.48 +0.39% (N) where N = neutral trend

Chart: $SPX -2.6% into #OPEX on volume, as it has for past 4 mos

4/13

There were only 2 winners in US equity sectors this week, but you did not get 🤕 in financials and REITs

$XLE +3.85% 🐻
$XLY +0.66% ♉️
$XLRE +0.00% ♉️
$XLF + 0.00% ♉️

Sector losers
$XLB -3.19% 🆕 (N)
$XLU -2.99%
$XLI -1.60% 🆕 (N)

Chart: $XLE +3.85% (W), but -5.86% (T)

5/13

International equities were mostly ↘️ but KOSPI and NIKK eked out gains

$KOSPI +0.47%
$NIKK +0.39% ♉️
$DAX -0.77% 🆕 neutral T
$CAC -1.4% 🆕 neutral T
$SSEC -2.41% ♉️
$HSI -4.9% 🐻

Chart: NIKK +12.91% (t) and +5.3% (T) #BTFD

6/13

In USDs, international ETFs did not fare so well

Winners
$EWJ +0.85% ♉️
$RSX +0.7% ♉️
$INDA 0.0% ♉️

Losers
$EWH -5.52% 🐻
$ENFL -4.36% neutral
$FXI -3.97% 🐻
$EWZ -3.76% 🐻

Chart: $ EWZ -4.48% (t) -17.02% (T) despite WTIC ↗️

7/13

Metals 🐒🔨’d

$GOLD -2.27% (for 2nd week in a row) with $GVZ 15.92 +5.08%
$SILVER -6.53% with $VXSLV 30.70 +15.2%
$PLAT -5.53%
$COPPER -4.49%

Is there a 🩺 in the house?

Chart: $SILVER -13.96% (T)
Is it headed to $14.00? 😮

7b/13

$COPPER -4.49% failed to break ↗️ from ♉️ 🚩

8/13

Hydrocarbons ↗️ with $WTIC breaking out ♉️

$WTIC +3.01% with $OVX 32.32 tranquilo
$BRENT +3.47%
$NATGAS +3.44%
$GASO -1.40% #divergence

Chart: $WTIC +15.58% (t), +0.74% (T), breaking ↗️ from consolidation

9/13

Grains mostly ↗️ on the week

$CORN +1.88% 🐻
$WHEAT +2.94% ♉️
$SUGAR +2.08% ♉️
$SOYB -0.19% (N)

Chart: $DBA hanging onto trend (T) = +3.22%

10/13

$CHF and $AUD punished vs. $USD 93.18 +0.64% and up for a 2nd week in a row.

CHF -1.53%
AUD -1.22%
GBP -0.8%
EUR -0.65%
CAD -0.6%
JPY -0.04%

Chart: $CHF - has growth stalled in 🇨🇭? 🤔

11/13

UST yields little changed on the week
10/2s to 113.7 BPS +0.8%
MOVE 56.06 +8.37%

$TLT +0.52%
$CWB +0.45%
$HYG +0.19%
$IEF -0.28%
$TIP -0.34%
$IVOL -0.46%

Chart: $TNX +2.16% at an inflection point with bond ETFs to (N) trend

2/13

👀 critical junctures in Global Macro

#CPI +5.3% and $TNX at 1.37% on the verge of a break ↗️

Post #opex, will $SPX rip ↗️?

$USD raising havoc with 🇪🇺 longs - new (T) under way, or episodic?

$WTIC just barely back to ♉️ - will it run or fail like $COPPER?

#FOMC 😵

13/13

I played the 🎲🎲 last week, selling (some) $TLT $LQD $TAIL & #BTFD in $SPY $VGK $UNG $URA $XLI $XLU $SPLV

I will pivot on a dime if wrong

Coming into #FOMC, wouldn’t it be ironic if Kaplan was forced out of $ES just before a big ↘️

🤔

Have a super profitable 💰 week!