Thread by @althecat

It appears the US assumption that the rains are ending soon in the Middle East and Horn of Africa is incorrect.

A rainfall forecast for the #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and the #MiddleEast follows.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1439571837260795909

This is the cause, the Indian Monsoon is not over yet. Here we see a 16 day forecast through till early October.

This GFS long range forecast shows a significant monsoon boost which has the capacity to bring significant rain to both the Middle East and the Horn of Africa in the coming fortnight, including a late season tropical storm to Somalia.

This big-picture view of the full weather system in the wider Arabian Sea environs finds things settling down, but the forecasts indicate this will not last.

This animation shows the next five days of precipitable water anomaly, and as you can see there are already fairly high levels of moisture over the Arabian Peninsula. These will increase dramatically over the fortnight.

The rainfall forecasts begin as usual with North Africa. Here we have: Euro, GFS, KMA and CMC 10 day forecasts.

And here 16-day GFS and 12-day KMA model accumulated rainfall forecasts.

And here are 48 hour, two day forecasts.

Before moving to the #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts here's a view of the Horn over the last 24 hours. Rain cloud activity is already picking up again.

Here are three 10-day and one 12-day accumlated rainfall forecasts for, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somaliland and Somalia.

And three 48 hour forecasts from the same three models: The Euro @ECMWF; @NOAA GFS; and Korean KMA,

@ECMWF @NOAA Middle East forecasts follow. But first a reminder that very wet Arabian Peninsular weather that began in April has continued throughout the Northern summer. Here's a video from KSA from yesterday.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1438889448683491328?s=20

That one and this one were both shot in Saudi Arabia on Friday.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1438889108424859648?s=20

[HT @Arab_Storms]

And this one is from Lebanon on Thursday.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1438889108424859648?s=20

These images show the Arabian Peninsula at 4.30pm on the 19th, 18th, 17th and 16th of September.

This summer has seen a lot of #DesertRain.

10 Day forecasts for the #MiddleEast region from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC and KMA models.

48 hour forecasts from the same four models.