Thread by @SteB777

1) Now is the time to talk about population.

"British ‘baby shortage’ could lead to economic decline, says thinktank"
theguardian.com/money/2021/sep…

2) I have a somewhat complex position on the population issue. I accept ecologically, that the human population is far higher than it really should be. However, I also take the position that practically and ethically, there is nothing that can be done at the moment about it.

3) Essentially, even with a successful birth control strategy, it would take well over 100 years to significantly reduce the population, and that would take a type of cooperation for the common good approach, which is not possible without major system change.

4) When I have engaged with people who say the population issue is being ignored, I point out to them, that within the present growth economic model, that governments will try to reverse falls in the birth rate for economic reasons.

5) This has happened numerous times in the last half century. Governments of developed countries have been panicked by a fall in birth rates, then scared of an economic impact, they have tried to reverse that fall in the birth rate, through government policy.

6) I have a much longer and more complex argument, that actually human population growth is highly linked to the pursuit of economic growth. However, there's not enough space to deal with that here.

7) Anyway, here is the evidence that mainstream economists, and therefore government, will try to reverse any fall in the birth rate.

8) What this illustrates, is that to have a system that looks at things long term, in the context of ecological sustainability and the common good, means a huge shift from the system we currently have.

9) The present system, which prioritises economic growth over everything else, and where this growth is seen as an absolute necessity, is very arbitrary i.e. it operates on a set of parameters that were arbitrarily imposed, because this greatly increases the wealth of the 1%.

10) I made the same point yesterday about technology.

https://twitter.com/SteB777/status/1439670765431951363

11) Only profound system change will prevent future catastrophe from a failure to properly address the climate and ecological emergency, and to create a truly ecological sustainable human society and economy. It is somewhat circular in structure.

12) Any truly sustainable society i.e. one that does not have a trend to breach the planetary boundaries, will entail a radical shift from the system, the economic model our societies currently use. As I say, the parameters to the current system were arbitrarily imposed.

13) I am not an ideologue. I do not make these arguments to fit some preconceived idea of how society should be, some preferred ideology. My arguments are purely based on sustainability principles.

14) There is only one type of sustainable society and economy, and that is one that does not set us on trends to breach the planetary boundaries, to try and live outside the doughnut according to @KateRaworth's eloquent model.
kateraworth.com/doughnut/

15) There are probably many ways to create a sustainable society, and I take the position that it is not my position to tell people, which version they should chose. However, this choice must be sustainable. Not fake sustainable greenwash i.e. sustainable in only words.

17) The purpose of this thread is merely to illustrate that it is those who demand constant economic growth, who want to maintain the birth rate.

18) Therefore if you are one of those people who insist that population is the key issue, you should be demanding system change and attacking the economic growth model, rather than criticising those just trying to create system change and a sustainable system.

19) It's pointless arguing about what type of sustainable system we should create at this point in time, when there is no momentum to even change the system and most wrongly that these problems can be addressed with the business as usual economic model.

20) We must avoid all infighting and divisions, in our demands for a change to a genuine sustainable system. It will take a huge push to change the system, and any division within that movement, will just make it harder and less likely to achieve this aim.

21) Any discussion about how things should be is pure fantasy and science fiction, until a genuine system change is at least likely. You are not going to make system change more likely by coming up with a plan, that many will oppose.

22) It is my position that a realistic discussion about population can only take place in a cooperative and much less competitive society, where everyone is working towards the common good. Therefore we must take things one step at a time, and not get ahead of ourselves.

@GeorgeMonbiot @GretaThunberg @ClimateHuman @JKSteinberger

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