Thread by @dhmontgomery

Today’s #COVID19 update (really the last update from last week — this is data as of Friday morning) closes off an up-and-down week on a bright note. Cases and positivity rate both fell slightly week-over-week, but remain quite elevated.

Hospitalization numbers are still ticking upwards, though, which is more concerning.

Overall, the impression I’m getting from the data in Minnesota is a plateau — not recovering, but also not accelerating again.

Looking at rate of change, you can see we’ve been at constant slow growth for close to 3 weeks now, excepting a teasing blip last week.

You may have noticed that this #COVID19 wave has just dragged on and on in Minnesota, unlike any of our past waves.

Of course, this wave also started at MUCH lower levels than the last two…

The line for the Spring 2020 wave here starts at the beginning of April, when positivity rate really started taking off. But of course the disease was circulating in MN for a month before that.

So as an experiment, I rejiggered the Summer 2021 start date from the date when positivity rate started to rise to the date when positivity surpassed our March low point.

No idea if this is anything, but we don’t look so weird any more…

Cases are growing most quickly in northwest Minnesota, and most slowly in Hennepin/Ramsey:

We have not seen cases spike following the State Fair.

That’s not to say that cases wouldn’t have been lower had the Fair not happened! COVID is really complicated, and it’s *super hard* to sort out exactly what impact any one event or policy had.

https://twitter.com/natepentz/status/1439997576602918917

New #COVID19 cases in Minnesota are highest among Native Americans (the least-vaccinated racial/demographic group) and lowest among Asians (the most-vaccinated group).