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David H. Montgomery Profile picture
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1 Sep, 5 tweets, 2 min read
I’ve got a meeting in a few minutes, so just a few quick #COVID19 charts today.

All the key metrics for MN’s COVID outbreak are pretty flat right now.

Of course, this wave has already given us one or two instances of plateaus that didn’t last…
#COVID19 hospital bed use is near the heights set in the Spring 2021 wave, but hasn’t yet come close to how bad things were last fall.
New first vaccinations are trending steadily down.
Recent weeks have seen Native Americans in Minnesota with particularly high case rates.
Things are getting rough in the Dakotas.

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More from @dhmontgomery

David H. Montgomery Profile picture
2 Sep
Isn’t this a tantalizing development in Minnesota’s positivity rate? That little turn downward after a period of flatness...

We’ll see whether it’s just a blip or the start of something significant in future days.
Cases, hospitalizations and positivity growth all continue to slow steadily…
One thing worth noting: more than 20 new #COVID19 deaths reported today. This isn’t a backlog — they basically all took place since Aug. 24. Not sure what’s up with this, but again: never overreact to one day of data.
Read 7 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
31 Aug
No peak yet to Minnesota’s #COVID19 wave — but no escalation, either. Just hovering barely above flat. Our current positivity rate of 5.6% is just slightly above the 5.2% two weeks ago and flat week-over-week. Image
This is the slowest Minnesota’s positivity rate has been growing since the earliest days of this current wave. Image
With lag times for infection, and then testing and reporting, the earliest a State Fair bump would probably show up in the data would probably be next week.
Read 11 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
30 Aug
THREAD: In a speech this weekend at an anti-vaccine-mandate rally at the MN Capitol, #mnleg Sen. @jimabeler said there have been "212 [deaths] in Minnesota, *from* the vaccine."

Let's break down where that figure came from, and what it really means. 1/
2/ First, this ISN'T about "breakthrough" deaths, people got a #COVID19 vaccine but got sick and died anyway.

That figure, as of today, is 80.

Abeler is talking about something else — alleged deaths *because* of the vaccine.
3/ The ultimate source of his figure appears to be the CDC's Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, or VAERS, a database of "information on unverified reports of adverse events (illnesses, health problems and/or symptoms) following immunization with US-licensed vaccines."
Read 17 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
30 Aug
Minnesota’s current #COVID19 wave continues to limp along, now into its 8th week. No peak yet (though also no shift yet back to explosive growth):
By this point in our past three waves, positivity growth had already started to decline, (and we were in each case on the verge of a moderate but temporary backsliding):
Confirmed cases by age are all just below the Spring 2021 peaks — with the exception of seniors, who are considerably higher.

This highly vaccinated group was barely affected by the spring wave, but delta seems different.
Read 7 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
7 Aug
1/ No new #COVID19 data today, so here’s a thread summarizing my newsletter yesterday: why I think MN’s current #COVID19 wave is going to peak, soon.

Read the whole thing here, or follow along below!

view.connect.mpr.org/?qs=ec8caeee88…
2/ Here’s the big picture: #COVID19 cases are up everywhere, but in Minnesota they’re up like 1.5x, while the hardest-hit states are up 10x or more.

The biggest Q: is MN going to belatedly follow these hard-hit states with time? Or is our wave qualitatively different?
3/ So far MN’s current wave looks a lot like our Spring 2021 wave (a relatively slow climb) rather than the exponential spikes of the 2020 waves (and of many southern states now).

But that’s no guarantee it’ll STAY gradual. Maybe delta will find another gear?
Read 17 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
6 Aug
Not much new in today’s #COVID19 data — the same disquieting trends are continuing, without meaningful slowing or acceleration. Cases are up to about 730/day, positivity 4.3%.
Hospital admissions are still rising, though not at levels like what we saw in past waves (as one would expect with most vulnerable people vaccinated).
It was about this time in the Spring 2021 wave that case growth started to peak.

The 2020 waves peaked about a week later.

So it wouldn’t be surprising if we’re within a week of peaking. But past trends are not guaranteed to continue!
Read 6 tweets

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