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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
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20 Sep, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The govt released a detailed comparison of children admitted to hospital between wave 1 (spring 2020) and wave 2 (winter 2021) on Friday.

Some things that stand out:

Large marjority (80%) were admitted BECAUSE of covid & almost 60% of children had no underlying conditions 1/3
Once again, we get more confirmation that children have COMMON SYMPTOMS that are NOT the ones govt uses to prompt a test. Eg, vomiting, stomach ache, diarrhoea & fatigue & cold symptoms.
Govt needs to update (and communicate) the symptom list. 2/3
Finally, kids needing hospital much more likely to be non-white and much more likely to be from deprived communities.

High infections in kids do not affect communities the same - a lesson govt still hasn't learned after year or doesn't care about. 3/3
Report here:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

supplementary material here
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

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More from @chrischirp

Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
17 Sep
THREAD:
It's tiring to be attacked as if I (and others) am an "extremist" on covid or with suggestions that I'm a mouthpiece for others... when actually I'm very mainstream and it's UK policy that isn't. 1/10
The government's science advisors, SAGE, have literally just warned that we are risking a rough winter through not implementing simple mitigations now
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… 2/10
The British Medical Assocation have this week highlighted the ongoing burden of Covid on an NHS that is understaffed, underfunded and exhausted.

bma.org.uk/what-we-do/ann… 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
17 Sep
Quick THREAD on current England situation:

TLDR overall cases falling but case positivity pretty flat... cases rising in school children but falling in young adults.

Hospitalisations remain relatively high. Simple things now will prevent things getting worse. 1/10
First off - some excellent news: vaccine uptake in 16/17 yr olds is very good and many 20-30 year olds are now fully vaccinated. I have no doubt this is having a big impact on cases! 2/10
Now some less good news... Hospital admissions have fallen slightly this week (good) but remain relatively high, as does hospital occupancy at just over 6,000 inpatients. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
15 Sep
THREAD: Was on @BBCNews earlier discussing yesterday's SAGE consensus statement particularly their advice that relatively minor measures could prevent a big autumn surge

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… 1/4
Almost a year ago SAGE advised a 2 week circuit break - we don't need that now with vax BUT we do need *something* in addition to the vaccines.
Alongside masks & some continued homeworking, there are clear things we could do that will help that are NOT RESTRICTIVE AT ALL 2/4
The government plan B does not say what "unsustainable pressure" on the NHS is... but the NHS is already extremely stretched and understaffed - and people are exhausted.

25% of current ICU beds are already Covid patients. We need to protect our NHS not keep piling more on. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
14 Sep
THREAD on latest PHE report on vaccine waning (and need for boosters):

Important new report from @PHE_uk on vaccine waning by age and at risk status - basically yes there's waning, but still good protection against severe disease for most people. 1/9
Firstly, protection against symptomatic infection starts waning against Delta (orange) about 10 weeks after 2nd dose (70 days).

Waning with both vax, but AZ starts and ends with lower protection. 2/9
Protection against hospitalisation is much higher and stays stronger - particularly for Pfizer. Some waning in AZ from about 20 weeks (5 months/140 days) after dose 2 but even so efficacy remains at about 80% for AZ after 20 weeks 3/9
Read 10 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
10 Sep
QUICK THREAD on UK covid situation...

Cases in the UK are going up. We've had high cases for several months now - over 2.7 million confirmed cases since Delta took over in mid May. And no sign of coming down any time soon. 1/9
By nation, Scotland has by far highest rates right now (800/100K people/week). Then come NI & Wales - but NI is decreasing & Wales increasing. Plus Wales has v high positivity rates - that's bad.
England is flattest & lowest right now. Everywhere way higher than year ago. 2/9
Geographically we can see the high numbers in Scotland, NI and Wales. In England cases are highest in the North and parts of Midlands (again), and the SW. English cases flat in adults but rising steeply in under 20s... 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
9 Sep
THREAD on Scotland, cases, schools and hospitals:

TLDR: cases *and* hospitalisations in kids are much much higher than they've ever been.

13% of children are off school (for any reason).

England likely to follow suit... Protect schools. 1/7
Schools in Scotland were back by 19 Aug. Scotland moved to its final level of opening on 9 Aug.

Cases in 15-19 year olds shot up week after 9th & carried on increasing after 19th. Most recent week has seen a fall.

Cases 2x previous peak in July and 6x high than Jan peak. 2/7
Of course, many 15-19 year olds are not in school tho.
Looking at Under 15s, we see rise in cases in summer term, drop over holidays and then they have shot up this term. 5x higher than July peak. Last week plateaued... 3/7
Read 11 tweets

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