Thread by @DesoGames

#China #Evergrande contagion check!

And possible shorting opportunities cause turns out, not everything's gone down yet!

Using this to find property developers in the first place:
investasian.com/2020/09/09/chi…

And Seeking Alpha/Bondsupermart. Picking a random bond cause i'm lazy.

1. Country garden: Fucked.
Their market cap is now 1/3rd of enterprise value, which i'm using as a quick check, should be obvious what problems are facing the entire sector now. The closer those values are, the less problems their in.

2. Poly Real Estate Group
Couldn't find much on this one, seems to be part of a larger SOE. Nevertheless, the bond POLHON 4.000% 10Nov2025 Corp (USD)
Ease Trade Global Limited (Keepwell: China Poly Group Corporation Limited) is also diving.

Iz best i got.

Skipping 3, cause we know Evergrande.

4: Vanke, not yet affected! Opportunity because it's part of the big 3 that my Chinese friend mentioned, and Country Garden was the one doing well.

Market cap is ~40% of enterprise value. Their last reported free cash flow: -$2.64B.

5, Sunac: Completely Fucked.
Market cap is <$9B, Enterprise value $52B.

Shows you how deeply troubled these markets are, because Seeking Alpha lists their last Net Income as $5,68B (on an Enterprise Value of $52B that's highly sus lol), and free cash flow of $4,77B (again, sus).

Also they're listed as -20% premarket LOL.
6, Longfor Properties: Opportunity! Not yet affected.

Enterprise value, $58 billion, Market cap, $25 billion.

Share price $39.67, book value per share: 2.84. Plenty of cash on hand ($15B), but that's according to SA.

Mind you, between CG ($58B), Vanke ($67B), Sunac ($52B), Longfor ($58B), and polygroup's probably around the same size, we're looking at a 2nd Evergrande already in terms of size.

7, Seazen holdings: Fucked.
Can't find market cap but i'm assuming around the same size.

8, China Resources Land: Opportunity! Not yet affected.

$56B enterprise value, $26B market cap.

SA's stats though is looking like the best one i've seen yet. But we're not talking polished turds here, but contagion risk. The market might not care.

Finally 9 (couldn't find 10), China Overseas Investment & Land Ltd: Fucked.

Couldn't find a bond because there's too many, part of China Holdings Group.

I know they're fucked, because Ping An is also a part of them, and they already got hit with contagion.

$44B EV, $22B MC.

Now, there's probably more, but i'm not gonna keep this up all night.

The point i wanted to make is, #Evergrande #Contagion is already well underway, and we're not dealing with small companies here. Each one of these is large enough to shock the system, and MOST are already gone