Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Evergrande

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Au 3 Novembre 2022, 13% de la capitalisation du marché #crypto est constituée de #stablecoins 🏦

Combien connaissent leur fonctionnement 🤔

À la fin de ce #thread, vous comprendrez le mécanisme derrière les plus grands stablecoins et leurs désavantages pour mieux s’en protéger.
[0 - XX] Ce thread vous apprends

• Le mécanisme derrière ce modèle économique 💰
• Son utilité 🤔
• Une présentation des différentes alternatives: $USDC, $DAI et $LUSD 👍

En 5 minutes.
[1 - XX] Retrouvez ce thread en format blog sur mon medium 👇…
Read 45 tweets
🧵THREAD - L'effondrement du marché immobilier chinois

Evalué à 60 000 milliards de dollars, il est 2 fois plus gros que le marché #immobilier américain.

Les analystes prévoient une chute de 30% de l'immo en #chine soit 1,5 fois pire que le #crash de 2008.

Détails 👇
Les acheteurs de logements en #Chine sont à bout de nerf alors que la #crise immobilière menace d'échapper à tout contrôle.

Des acheteurs de 80 villes et de 200 projets ont entamé un "boycott hypothécaire" refusant de rembourser leur prêt pour des projets immobiliers inachevés.
Le montant total des prêts hypothécaires pour des projets #immobiliers s'élève à 296 milliards de dollars.

Mais de nombreux projets se sont arrêtés car les promoteurs immobiliers n'ont plus de capitaux pour terminer la construction.
Read 25 tweets
⚠️ La marine américaine déploie quatre navires de guerre à l'est de #Taiwan alors que #Pelosi se rend à Taipei

Un responsable de la marine américaine a déclaré que le navire d'assaut amphibie USS Tripoli se trouvait également dans la zone dans le cadre d'un déploiement.
La #Chine avertit que les États-Unis "paieront le prix" si #Pelosi se rend à #Taiwan

Alors que la tension monte, le ministère des Affaires étrangères met en garde de "ne pas porter atteinte aux intérêts de sécurité souverains de la Chine"
Un déploiement massif de l'armée chinoise est en cours dans les espaces aériens, navals et terrestres dans un contexte tendu avec Taiwan.

En réponse, 8 mirage 2000 ont été déployés par #Taiwan 🇹🇼 pour protéger l'espace aérien en attendant la visite potentielle de #Pelosi 🇺🇸
Read 19 tweets
Via #vincenzotrasmissioni
Coloro che politicizzano e armano l'economia globale, imponendo sanzioni deliberate sfruttando il loro dominio sui sistemi finanziari e monetari internazionali, porteranno disastri al mondo intero e finiranno per danneggiare se stessi (Xi Jinping)
Via #vincenzotrasmissioni
"Il Sahara occidentale ex spagnolo è un problema per la Spagna, conteso tra Marocco e Algeria e il Presidente Trump ha riconosciuto le rivendicazioni di sovranità del Marocco"…
Un estratto dell'articolo negli screen
Read 73 tweets
China #Evergrande: The independent investigation into the pledge guarantee of Evergrande Property Services is being actively carried out. The expected timing for the completion of the independent investigation has not yet been determined at this stage.…
China #Evergrande: Due to the impact of the epidemic and the independent investigation of the pledge guarantee of Evergrande Property Services, the timing for the release of the 2021 annual results is yet to be confirmed.
Read 4 tweets
Thread: China #Evergrande Group is being marked to $0 today and removed from ETFs. After the Chinese company defaulted last year, they are being removed from investment vehicles. It is in emerging market and global ETFs. 1/4…
Not only r the ETFs being marked down, but they r probably rebalancing (adjusting all the percentages of investments owned by country) & since they r overseas investments, global funds would be selling their US allocation & buying other investments to replace Evergrande. 2/4
According to Google, "Evergrande is the world's most indebted property company, with more than $300 billion in total liabilities, which include nearly $20 billion of international bonds all deemed to be in default after a run of missed payments late last year." 3/4
Read 5 tweets
#TetherIsInsolvent, part 2. this is a followup to analysis @patio11 (link) and i did independently showing #Tether must be insolvent based on Tether's stated financials due to the crypto selloff. But this time... it's about foreign exchange rates.…
On May 19th #Tether announced that it had reduced its commercial paper reserves by $4.3B between 2021-12-31 and 2022-03-31 and that they had reduced their paper another 20% ($4B) since that March 31 "attestation" was done. Here's their press release:…
@ZekeFaux did some (maybe pulitzer-worthy) reporting for Bloomberg in Oct '21 where he reported he could not find anyone at a major bank who had sold tether any paper, and further that he had seen documents stating that at least some % of tether's paper was from Chinese companies
Read 19 tweets
Another thing to consider with $usdt is that #tether doesn’t disclose specifics about the commercial paper that substantially backs its “stablecoin. There have been unconfirmed reports that the Chinese real estate developer, Evergrande. (A thread 🧵):
In this tweet from 2021, @TheLastBearSta1 does a great job connecting the dots between #tether and #evergrande.
If it’s true that $usdt and #tether are tied to Evergrande, this could be problematic for the entire market. If $usdt needs liquidity and calls upon its biggest asset (the debt owed by Evergrande) and Evergrande can’t pay, it’s a valid conclusion that chaos would ensue.
Read 4 tweets
🇨🇳We Chat de Evergrande: "Evergrande Group Chongqing implementa inquebrantablemente la política de garantizar la entrega de edificios, proteger el sustento de las personas y garantizar la estabilidad."

Situación de construcción de algunos proyectos de #Evergrande Group Chongqing
Evergrande Yunhu Shang County

El carril de incendios exterior del contratista general de la parcela se completó en un 90%, el muro de mampostería se completó en un 60%, la decoración interior de la unidad de decoración se completó en un 90%.
Condado Evergrande Yunhu Shang

El carril de incendios exterior del contratista general de la parcela se completó en un 90 %, el muro de mampostería se completó en un 60 %, la decoración interior de la unidad de decoración se completó en un 90 %
Read 10 tweets
Hang Seng Index Futures open up 5.47% or 1,130 to above 21,267.
🇭🇰 $HSI
Hang Seng Index opens up 6.7%, Tech Index rises 10.88%.
$XPEV, $BILI, $BIDU $JD up 15%, $BABA and JD Health up 14%
🇭🇰 #HongKong $HSI $HSTI Image
The mainland market is also up more than 1% on Thursday morning, spurred by the signals from China State Council's finance committee meeting and the pause of property tax trial yesterday
The property sector up 6.8%.

Read 6 tweets
🇨🇳The website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released that the Hengchi brand pure electric multi-purpose passenger vehicle of #Evergrande NEV (708) is in the "Catalogue of Recommended Models for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles"
This means that the Hengchi 5 has passed the one-month publicity period for new vehicles of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and is qualified for production and sales, and can be publicly pre-sold.

According to the plan previously disclosed by Evergrande Automobile, Hengchi 5 is positioned as an A-class SUV with a price of less than 200,000 yuan. It is the lowest-positioned and cheapest model among the 9 models of Hengchi Automobile. It is the benchmark for Audi Q3, BMW X1.
Read 5 tweets
China has dealt with 25 trillion yuan of shadow banking over the past 5 years. China's #realestate bubble has curbed in 2021, s Guo Shuqing, the head of China's banking regulator CBIRC.
#Evergrande #Shimao
#China will implement instructions from recent inspection, will forestall, defuse risks and push high-quality development.
Guo also says China needs strong measures for the economy, but not massive stimulus.
Will make targeted policies aimed at Small- and Medium Enterprises.
Guo Shuqing says #China will speed up the standardization of corporate credit #bonds, push forward the legislation on financial stability and #derivatives.
Read 4 tweets
Things may be looking up on #Bitcoin #btc
Here is a thread where my head is at.
Do your own research etc.

1/ I was nervous about the #evergrande news the other day, but i think its super bullish that there wasn't a sell off. Perhaps it was already factored in. Nobody really knows, they're lying if they say do.
2/ I was nervous about a potential near term upwick in #bitcoins going onto exchanges but this has quickly trended down again. Looks like Whales where messing with us potentially. This is a bullish sign.
Read 8 tweets
#BREAKING Chinese property giant Evergrande defaults for first time: Fitch Image
#BREAKING Chinese property company Kaisa defaults on $400 million debt: Fitch Image
#UPDATE Two major Chinese property firms have defaulted on $1.6 billion worth of bonds to overseas creditors, Fitch Ratings agency said Thursday, as contagion spreads within the country's debt-ridden real estate sector
Read 4 tweets
The imminent default of #Evergrande and the hawkish tilt of #Fed is sparking a global risk off event. This has similarities to all 3 of the last major crashes; 97 (LTCM - leverage), 2000 (tech - overvaluation), and 2008 (real estate - highly rated assets defaulting) #QQQ 1/9
97 started with the currency crisis of Thailand, a small economically unimportant country but set off a chain of currency crisis and defaults in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, Argentina & Russia. Culminating in the collapse of the massively over-leveraged LTCM
#QQQ #BTC #SPY 2/9
It started small and took significant time (1 yr) to fully play out, feeding on the most overexposed and over leveraged investors. I expect it to play out much faster this time as we are starting with the 2nd largest economy, and the debt levels are significantly higher
#ETH 3/9
Read 13 tweets
Who are #Evergrande's creditors? The list below shows the international investors and comes from #Bloomberg. 💸 $FNF $BLK $ASHM $ $UBS $RY $HSBC Image
International investors alone have put around $23.67B into 23 bonds & 3 large loans issued by #Evergrande. Among the already known institutional investors are well-known addresses such as Fidelity, Blackrock, UBS, Ashmore Group, Prudential, HSBC, Pictet, Vontobel, BNP & Allianz. Image
Investors should be concerned about the spillovers to the real economy and to broader credit conditions. Since #RealEstate is so central to the economy, #Evergrade's financial difficulties will have an amplified tightening effect on credit conditions in the broader economy.💸 Image
Read 4 tweets
#Evergrande CEO in talks for restructuring, asset sale: RTRS
#Evergrande Group’s chief executive is holding talks in Hong Kong with investment banks and creditors over a possible restructuring and asset sales, two people said, as the Chinese developer battles against default on more than $300 billion in debts.…
#Evergrande has left its offshore investors in the dark about repayment plans after already missing three rounds of interest payments on its dollar bonds.
But payments on onshore bonds continue...
Read 4 tweets
PBoC: #Evergrande's risks to financial system controllable.
PBoC urges developers, shareholders to fulfill debt obligations and asks banks to keep stable, orderly loans to real estate.
#evergrande #China
PBoC: Risk exposure of Evergrande's debt problems on individual financial institutions is not big. Relevant departments and local governments are resolving Evergrande's debt problems according to law.
#China #Evergrande
Read 5 tweets
1/3. A thread on ballpark estimate of -1% China growth shock, IF really bad chain reactions as some China commentaries suggesting

#Evergrande Fallout LEADS To
#Real #Estate #Contraction -10% LEADS To
#China #GDP -1% LEADS to

#US and the rest of the world?
2/3. IMF paper @KamiarMohaddes etc. estimated in 2016, w. -1% China growth shock

GLOBAL growth - 0.23%.
#INDIA will be least impacted.
#ASEAN-5 countries (except Philippines), ranging between -0.23% and -0.35%
#EURO Area -0.12%
#UK -0.04%
#US -0.07%…
3/3. Caveats: written 2016. Estimates Statistical with wide band. China has further integrated with the world where it BOTH imports and exports significantly. Hope Prof. @KamiarMohaddes keep updating as it will be called up frequently next 30 years
Read 5 tweets
1. A thread on three #PBOC 2021 Q2 Macro sentiment surveys from Bankers (Sample 3200), Industrial Companies (5000) and Urban Bank Customers (20,000). Surveys data are considered less informative and need to be heavily discounted, but could be complimentary to other data source.
2. Though data came from two diff. surveys, bankers and entrepreneurs have similar view:

Entrepreneur(Bankers) view on Macroeconomy 23.9%(25.5%) as “Cold”,72.6%(71.8%) “Normal”,3.5(2.7%)% “Hot”. Normal got 50 and HOT got 100. Indexes recovered to pre-Pandemic, Q3 lower than Q2
3. Product Selling Price (Raw Material Purchasing) Sentiment, 24.4%(47.1%) expect “Increase”,67.6% (49.6%) "Same",8.0%(3.2%) "Decrease”. Expect China PPI/CPI finally converge somewhat as companies raise prices on consumers. Some Q3 pull back from Q2.
Read 14 tweets
1/14. A thread on India/China. A rumored but likely authentic notice of #Walmart moving it's "Supplier Enablement Team" from #China to #India has been circulating on Chinese social media. Is this the beginning of business decoupling? A few pointers.
2. First, my understanding is Supplier Enablement team is to help suppliers getting their business efficiently so Walmart has efficiency in its own part of business. It is likely tied to Walmart commitment to source $10 Billion of India-Made Goods Each Year by 2027.
3. But is this a leading event in a significant shift of international businesses moving from China to India? It remains to be seen & an active area of attention. Southeast Asia are the common denominator in many of these supply decisions on the ground.
Read 19 tweets
By popular request:
J Cap just published a new report on $FFIE, an EV scam founded by China’s most famous securities fraudster. Read it here:
1/Like other EV frauds, $FFIE seems to have invented most of its “reservations.” They disappeared from company docs after Hindenburg’s Lordstown report in March. And no wonder: 78% of the 14,000 bookings had been “disappeared” a year earlier and converted to a note payable—at 8%.
2/$FFIE has reneged on every promise it ever made to start a factory. Why should the current one be any different? And to be sure, we visited: For a company supposedly rushing to “mass” manufacturing in 7 months, the plant is awful quiet.
Read 11 tweets
Aplicando la teoría de las derivadas al caso #Evergrande ($3333.HK) ¿Cómo saber si la crisis de Evergrande puede contenerse y no ser un problema mayor para #China y el resto de mundo? Poniendo la vista en la compañía inmobiliaria más grande del país (2020) Country Garden
(1/4) Image
¿Señales? Este es el China Comp. Index, un índice que representa bastante bien la economía China. Vemos que está en soporte que ha funcionado desde 2008 y se ha apoyado en él varias veces, lo que suma probabilidad de que la caída pueda estar frenándose
(2/4) Image
Igual que antes, podemos analizar el ETF iShares China Large Cap (como Country Garden o #Tencent o #baba), para empresas grandes de China que también está alcanzando zona de soporte
(3/4) Image
Read 4 tweets
China Credit Update - Mini Thread (10/6/21) 👇👇
2. #Evergrande made headlines in the US two weeks ago when markets dropped 2%. But the slide was more likely due to gamma "unclenching" after a massive 9/17 options expiration. Since Evergrande has now been deemed "contained", attention has moved elsewhere.
3. The story was never #Evergrande. The story is a decade of unsustainable, unproductive debt fueled growth that is key to Chinese economic growth, holds the countries wealth, and is at risk of imploding as Beijing breaks the implicit debt backstop.

Read 11 tweets

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