Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Evergrande

Most recents (24)

¿Cómo logrará 🇨🇳 China hacerse con la supremacía mundial?

Ataque en 4 fases:

1- Coronavirus: dependencia total del mundo al depender de sus productos y sacar a #Trump de La Casa Blanca introduciendo un caballo de Troya #Biden
2- Desabastecimiento: crisis de los contenedores, comercio marítimo, dependencia total, marcando los tiempos, dependencia de materias primas, chips, colapso.

3- Crisis económica: #Evergrande bonistas extranjeros, los mayores tenedores de deuda. El efecto dominó que provocará 👇🏻
4- Ataque militar: precedido de un #Ciberataque a gran escala, desactivando las defensas y atacando el corazón de 🇺🇸 Estados Unidos con misiles hipersónicos.

La supremacía en la tecnología #5G y #6G 🌐 es la clave.

Avisé sobre el #COVID19 en septiembre de 2019, ver es creer 👁‍🗨
Read 3 tweets
#Evergrande CEO in talks for restructuring, asset sale: RTRS
#Evergrande Group’s chief executive is holding talks in Hong Kong with investment banks and creditors over a possible restructuring and asset sales, two people said, as the Chinese developer battles against default on more than $300 billion in debts.
reuters.com/article/china-…
#Evergrande has left its offshore investors in the dark about repayment plans after already missing three rounds of interest payments on its dollar bonds.
But payments on onshore bonds continue...
Read 4 tweets
PBoC: #Evergrande's risks to financial system controllable.
PBoC urges developers, shareholders to fulfill debt obligations and asks banks to keep stable, orderly loans to real estate.
#evergrande #China
PBoC: Risk exposure of Evergrande's debt problems on individual financial institutions is not big. Relevant departments and local governments are resolving Evergrande's debt problems according to law.
#China #Evergrande
Read 5 tweets
1/3. A thread on ballpark estimate of -1% China growth shock, IF really bad chain reactions as some China commentaries suggesting

#Evergrande Fallout LEADS To
#Real #Estate #Contraction -10% LEADS To
#China #GDP -1% LEADS to

#US and the rest of the world?
2/3. IMF paper @KamiarMohaddes etc. estimated in 2016, w. -1% China growth shock

GLOBAL growth - 0.23%.
#INDIA will be least impacted.
#ASEAN-5 countries (except Philippines), ranging between -0.23% and -0.35%
#EURO Area -0.12%
#UK -0.04%
#US -0.07%

imf.org/external/pubs/…
3/3. Caveats: written 2016. Estimates Statistical with wide band. China has further integrated with the world where it BOTH imports and exports significantly. Hope Prof. @KamiarMohaddes keep updating as it will be called up frequently next 30 years
Read 5 tweets
1. A thread on three #PBOC 2021 Q2 Macro sentiment surveys from Bankers (Sample 3200), Industrial Companies (5000) and Urban Bank Customers (20,000). Surveys data are considered less informative and need to be heavily discounted, but could be complimentary to other data source.
2. Though data came from two diff. surveys, bankers and entrepreneurs have similar view:

Entrepreneur(Bankers) view on Macroeconomy 23.9%(25.5%) as “Cold”,72.6%(71.8%) “Normal”,3.5(2.7%)% “Hot”. Normal got 50 and HOT got 100. Indexes recovered to pre-Pandemic, Q3 lower than Q2
3. Product Selling Price (Raw Material Purchasing) Sentiment, 24.4%(47.1%) expect “Increase”,67.6% (49.6%) "Same",8.0%(3.2%) "Decrease”. Expect China PPI/CPI finally converge somewhat as companies raise prices on consumers. Some Q3 pull back from Q2.
Read 14 tweets
1/14. A thread on India/China. A rumored but likely authentic notice of #Walmart moving it's "Supplier Enablement Team" from #China to #India has been circulating on Chinese social media. Is this the beginning of business decoupling? A few pointers.
2. First, my understanding is Supplier Enablement team is to help suppliers getting their business efficiently so Walmart has efficiency in its own part of business. It is likely tied to Walmart commitment to source $10 Billion of India-Made Goods Each Year by 2027.
3. But is this a leading event in a significant shift of international businesses moving from China to India? It remains to be seen & an active area of attention. Southeast Asia are the common denominator in many of these supply decisions on the ground.
Read 19 tweets
By popular request:
J Cap just published a new report on $FFIE, an EV scam founded by China’s most famous securities fraudster. Read it here: jcapitalresearch.com
1/Like other EV frauds, $FFIE seems to have invented most of its “reservations.” They disappeared from company docs after Hindenburg’s Lordstown report in March. And no wonder: 78% of the 14,000 bookings had been “disappeared” a year earlier and converted to a note payable—at 8%.
2/$FFIE has reneged on every promise it ever made to start a factory. Why should the current one be any different? And to be sure, we visited: For a company supposedly rushing to “mass” manufacturing in 7 months, the plant is awful quiet.
Read 11 tweets
In #China, efforts are ongoing to resolve #Evergrande debt crisis:

👉 4th-Oct.: Property developer Hopson Development Holding Co was reported to plan to acquire about 51% of Evergrande's property management unit, and the deal could be valued at more than $5.14 billion.

1/16
👉 29th-Sept.: Evergrande announced that it has sold 1.753 billion non-tradable domestic shares of Shengjing Bank to Shenyang Shengjing Financial Holding Investment Group.

2/16
To predict the fate of Evergrande, three factors can be considered:

1) The management of the bankruptcy of other large Chinese companies which faced the same problem of debt-fuelled expansion.

3/16
Read 16 tweets
Aplicando la teoría de las derivadas al caso #Evergrande ($3333.HK) ¿Cómo saber si la crisis de Evergrande puede contenerse y no ser un problema mayor para #China y el resto de mundo? Poniendo la vista en la compañía inmobiliaria más grande del país (2020) Country Garden
(1/4) Image
¿Señales? Este es el China Comp. Index, un índice que representa bastante bien la economía China. Vemos que está en soporte que ha funcionado desde 2008 y se ha apoyado en él varias veces, lo que suma probabilidad de que la caída pueda estar frenándose
(2/4) Image
Igual que antes, podemos analizar el ETF iShares China Large Cap (como Country Garden o #Tencent o #baba), para empresas grandes de China que también está alcanzando zona de soporte
(3/4) Image
Read 4 tweets
China Credit Update - Mini Thread (10/6/21) 👇👇
2. #Evergrande made headlines in the US two weeks ago when markets dropped 2%. But the slide was more likely due to gamma "unclenching" after a massive 9/17 options expiration. Since Evergrande has now been deemed "contained", attention has moved elsewhere.
3. The story was never #Evergrande. The story is a decade of unsustainable, unproductive debt fueled growth that is key to Chinese economic growth, holds the countries wealth, and is at risk of imploding as Beijing breaks the implicit debt backstop.

Read 11 tweets
1. Is #Evergrande stock suspended news? If you've followed me, you know I've said many times the screenplay on how to restructure is largely already laid out in past restructuring of companies like HNA or Huarong. #HNA Group is turned into a trust to pay to bond holders.
2. How long will it take? Majority of HNA restructuring took about 10 months, with the rest still ongoing. It's broken into 4 pieces with three parts introducing strategic equity investors, with the rest turned into a trust for bond holders.
3. How about the those wealth management products? HNA bankruptcy procedure mentioned that if all law is followed, they are likely so low in debt priority to get nothing. But it gave each person Yuan30k, with the rest going into official pool of debtors. Call it socialism.
Read 5 tweets
Die Anzeichen, dass wir uns einer Logistik- und Energiekrise nähern, verdichten sich. Ich habe mal ein paar Quellen und Gründe gesammelt.

1. China zu trocken: Strom durch Staudämme braucht Wasser. Der Sommer war sehr trocken.
(Bild des 3-Schluchten-Staudamms) Image
Mangels großer eigener fossiler Reserven hat China viel auf Staudämme gesetzt. Image
15% weniger Energie als sonst üblich gab's deshalb im Juni im Süden Chinas - Fabriken mussten 1 bis 2 Tage pro Woche schließen.
Read 26 tweets
@federalreserve @POTUS @Fxhedgers @zerohedge

1/ The most infuriating part of the #Evergrande default is they essentially have empty ghost cities and apartments as their 'toxic' asset that is actually worth maybe 0 (akin to '08 subprime swaps etc.), if you grand masters of the
2/capital markets didn't insist on command economies and crony capitalism then you would have the invisible hand doing its thing and the millions of homeless Americans would have a roof over their heads.. do you see how you all fucked it up now? Let me be crystal clear here...
3/ because of capital misallocation you actually now have worthless apartments in china and record homelessness in the USA. Congrats guys, you have made a fuck up the size of France.
Read 3 tweets
I'm thinking through power outages in #China in the context of the #Evergrande blow up. Either China's economy is a real-estate and debt-driven house of cards that is collapsing, or electricity demand is grinding up to all time highs. Particularly with #bitcoin mining banned.
The context for this is that power consumption in China is considered one of the most reliable indicators of economic activity, and that Bitcoin mining had been a rapidly growing portion of power demand there until it was discouraged and then recently banned.
Read 4 tweets
🚨🚨Banks in Theory and Practice (9/27/21)👇👇
THEORY: Banks play a crucial role in a country's economy. They take money that is not currently being used and lend it to others. Through extending credit, they are allocating resources, but importantly they are also responsible for assessing the value of capital they have lent.
3. Example: a bank lends $100, and that money is used by the borrower to generate value, that ensures the bank is repaid $100 with interest. But that doesn't always happen. Its up to the bank to constantly reassess the value of that loan and the likelihood they will be repaid.
Read 24 tweets
LEITURA DE BALANÇO: CHINA EVERGRANDE GROUP ou para os moradores de Hong Kong apenas #EVERGRANDE ou para a galerinha do mercado financeiro HKG #3333
1/n MOEDA: Moeda do balanço está em RMB Million, caso queiram realizar a conversão utilize 1 RMB (Remimbi) para cada 0,15 USD.
2/n Parecer da auditoria: A PWC levantou 3 pontos chaves em seu relatório: 1) Avaliação do valor realizável líquido de propriedades em construção e concluídas mantidas para venda 2) Fair Value do PPI 3) Impairment no intangível, ágio e novo negócio de carros elétricos.
Read 14 tweets
We should do less thinking of what China is doing to itself in the short-term and more of what they are trying to achieve long-term. Moves that appear to be bad right now may be hugely beneficial 5 years or more into the future. Some that appear good now could actually harm them
as these moves could impede progress. Reining in the tech sector to give Beijing time to put in regulations is likely positive, as platforms will have an even and clear playing field. Banning #cryptocurrency seems self-defeating now, but in the context of avoiding capital flight
that could destabilize the financial system later on and shutting down illicit flows from criminal activities, it is a positive. Launching a #CBDC in Feb opens up tighter surveillance and monitoring of people, but will bring in hundreds of millions of unbanked into the digital
Read 7 tweets
GIVEAWAY #Bitcoin setara Rp. 250ribu bagi 2 pemenang beruntung, caranya:

Follow akun @JackSitorus7
Rt + Like
Drop proofnya dengan tagar #WD40 #BennyBongLawanWD40

Announce hari Rabu (30/9)! Posting sebanyaknya utasan ini, semakin banyak RT & Like besar peluang menang.
Gue mo share kasus gugatan hukum dari perusahaan raksasa Amerika WD-40 kpd temen baik gue bernama Benny Bong, dia ini pedagang UKM di Pasar HWI Lindeteves Jakarta & telah membuat produk pelumas anti karat serbaguna dgn merk dagang "Get All-40" $WDFC #WD40 #BennyBongLawanWD40
Benny Bong ini pemilik merek dagang Get All-40 sejak thn 2008 dlm perkembangan, thn 2015, dia mendaftarkan 3 merek dagang ke Hak kekayaan Intelektual (HKI) & mendapatkan dua sertifikat merek & Lukisan Get All-40: IDM, 0006165482 & IDM, 000616482. $WDFC #WD40 #BennyBongLawanWD40
Read 10 tweets
#Evergrande - es ist dabei zu passieren: Der Chinesische Immobilienentwickler hat heute seine Zinsen nicht beglichen.

(thread)

Evergrande hatte am Mittwoch mitgeteilt, dass sich das Unternehmen mit Gläubigern über Zinszahlungen für eine im südchinesischen Shenzhen gehandelte Anleihe geeinigt habe.

(2/6)
finanzen.net/nachricht/akti…
83 Millionen Dollar wären heute fällig gewesen, am 29. September weitere 47 Millionen. Allerdings gibt es wohl die Möglichkeit einer "Nachfrist", was auch immer das genau bedeutet.

(3/6)
Read 7 tweets
Los desarrollos recientes en torno al promotor inmobiliario chino #Evergrande ponen de manifiesto la forma en que los #riesgos financieros se van transformando.

A continuación me refiero a esto.

1/7
#Evergrande no es un banco, pero tiene deuda por 300 mmdd; para que se den una idea, esta deuda es 3 veces más grande que la deuda de Pemex.

Un posible default generaría una fuerte sacudida en los mercados financieros internacionales.

2/7
Además, #Evergrande vendió #instrumentos de inversión a pequeños inversionistas por 6.8 billones de dólares (el equivalente a la mitad del presupuesto del Gobierno de la Ciudad de México).

3/7
Read 7 tweets
El gran dilema de Xi Jinping. Debe salvar a #Evergrande con dinero público? En actual cruzada contra multiples empresarios y tras citar en cada discurso "common prosperity" = repartir la riqueza, el propietario Evergrande fue en 2017 el más rico del país. Asi operaba la promotora
Compraba terrenos a gobiernos locales, se dice q sobrepagando al resto d inmob. Luego recibia avances pagos de clientes muchos meses e incluso con años d antelación (a veces d un % s/total elevado). Tambien vendía directa e indirectamnte productos financieros ligados a proyectos
por ejemplo con Ping An, la mayor aseguradora del país. Con todo este dinero compraba más terrenos y hacia lo mismo. No esta muy lejos de un esquema ponzi. Además con tanta financiación compró un Club de Futbol (Guanzhou Evergrande) que perdió $274 mill. en 2019 (ganó la liga)
Read 9 tweets
The filing said that the interest payment of 20 恒大 04 “has been resolved via negotiations off the clearing house", which has triggered speculation that #Evergrande struck a deal with noteholders to postpone interest payments without having to label the move a default.
Li Kai, founding partner of bond fund Shengao Investment said #Evergrande's arrangement to pay noteholders directly may be because the companies can’t transfer the cash on time or in full, and it usually will involve extension, payment in installment, or a reduction in the coupon
#Evergrande will also have an interest payment due Sept. 23 on its 8.25% US dollar note due 2022, which is about $83.53 million.
Read 3 tweets
🔵#Hilo | Agitación en los #mercados en un arranque de semana marcado por el miedo a la posible quiebra de #Evergrande como desencadenante. ¿Qué es y por qué preocupa al mercado? En este hilo tienes una guía para entender el impacto del 'Lehman chino'. ⬇️ bit.ly/3nOnZ7X
🔵#Hilo | ¿Qué es?
▶️#Evergrande Real Estate forma parte de un complejo entramado industrial cuya cabecera es Evergrande Group.
▶️Era la 2ª promotora inmobiliaria china antes de desplomarse más del 90% en un año.
▶️Ayer se hundió a mínimos de 2011. bit.ly/3nOnZ7X
🔵#Hilo | ¿Por qué preocupa a los #Mercados?
▶️#Evergrande se hunde bajo una deuda de más de 300.000M$.
▶️Su crisis comenzó en 2020 con las medidas de Pekín para controlar el endeudamiento de las grandes inmobiliarias.
▶️Podría entrar en impago el jueves. bit.ly/3nOnZ7X
Read 14 tweets
#PortadaExpansión 🗞️ | Hoy, #EnPortada de Expansión bit.ly/2gaGJNP
Lea la edición impresa sin salir de casa, en Orbyt por 1€ el 1er mes: bit.ly/2M4WhmN
#Economía #Política #mercadosfinancieros #Ibex #finanzas #Empresas #emprendedores #expansioncom #FelizMartes
#PortadaExpansión 🗞️ | El miedo de los #inversores a una posible quiebra de #Evergrande despierta viejos fantasmas por temor a un colapso que tenga riesgos sistémicos como el que llevó a la desaparición de Lehman.🖊️ @crosique11 y @rociomartinezri ⬇️bit.ly/3tXEFuz
#PortadaExpansión 🗞️ | El hólding hispanobritánico dispara su cotización tras anunciar la principal economía mundial que relajará, a partir de este noviembre, las restricciones para entrar en el país. 🖊️ @artur_zanon y @RcasadoRoberto ⬇️ bit.ly/3zrLyFN
Read 5 tweets

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