Alright, i promised a post on this so here goes. #Bitfinex is amassing a much bigger Bitcoin hoard than previously disclosed. Either that (by far most likely), or some whale trusts only trusts Bitfinex to trade with, and only accumulates at quarter end, in bulk.
Gonna be another screenshot heavy thread i'm afraid, since i've gotta prove ownership when that's hard to do. So.
This time we follow the money backwards. How did 53.5K Bitcoin accumulate in a ~6 month old wallet? Aside from a few tiny txn, all BTC came in via Bitfinex.
Got another juicy thread today tracking down Binance wash trading. Very juicy.
So, i was looking at the #USDT again that keeps flowing into #Binance via #Kraken. I did the crazy thing again, and found it in Binance Hot.
But this time i went even further.
See that red line? I figured, maybe the bot network is stupid enough to transfer all the funds in at once, because there's pages of IN at 6H22M - but the amounts are *ASCENDING* in order! Sorted almost!
So i clicked on *every wallet* in that screenshot. Here's the analysis:
Feb 24, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Been a while since i looked at the $FNMA Fannie Mae monthly summary.
And yknow what, history never repeats, but it often does rhyme...
Dug out an old summary from December 2008, and the liquidation rate's looking like it's having the same "blow off bottom" as it had in 2008.
Here's how that went in 2009 (from the January 2010 summary). Mind you liquidations spiked higher during covid than during the 2011 peak:
More BRRR. But that's not the question of today, which remains these darn chainswaps Bitfinex keeps doing.
This isn't small potatoes yknow. $388 million in 5 days!
I really wonder what the function of Bitfinex 2 on Ethereum is as well. Since these chainswaps keep originating from there, and the INs before the chainswap are a total mystery to me.
For some reason, that 2.8B didn't end up in Tether's treasury wallet directly. Somehow it ended up in multiple Binance hot wallets (as the top 11-50 holders grew alot compared to top 1-10).
And wouldn't you know it..
So what you're looking at is the moment of transfer out of Binance Cold 2, as well as 2 other Binance Hot wallets at that time which aren't the main one. Page 500 was already below 2 hours when i thought of tracking this transaction.
And while i can't correlate ins....
Dec 13, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Couple of highlights. I think the DoJ's case will be more extensive, this is gonna take ages to dig everything up, buuuuut there's a few gems in there none the less:
By the way; i wonder if people can figure out why Binance stopped withdrawals on USDC, but not USDT.
And for anybody saying "it's for arbitrage" - please compare the last few hours on Kraken, Coinbase, Binance and Bitfinex and tell me where arbitrage happened.
Print! +~$84 million $USDT from last night. But in keeping with the recent trend, i've got *yet more* suspicious behavior catalogued. Tether's in deep trouble if not straight up dying.
First off - i can finally tie the volume spikes into price action:
If you still think that's a glitch with THAT much convenient timing, there's nothing i can do for you, sorry. For the rest; the big spikes simply mean alot of quick transactions at scale, which CMC aggregates with an algo causing these big spikes.
The spikes can be small too.
Dec 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Correlation does not equal causation, atleast in this case i don't think so. Still, makes for a hell of a chart. #Tether $DXY $TLT
Here's the closeup though, before it drops off the 15m chart and it becomes less granular.
Tether's depeg happened to happen on the same day the last CPI report came out, which dropped the DXY and spiked TLT - inverting their relationship ever since then.
Jump up of about $80 mil, but treasury wallets display an interesting pattern. So a smol 🧵
First off, i think this pretty much decisively proves there's a conspiracy going on. Justin Sun, CZ, and Tether are colluding in the biggest ponzi in history.
Whenever #Tether's above peg, they print $USDT and give it to #Binance to wash-trade into the market and do whatever the fuck with it.
Below peg, Bitfinex swaps legitimate ETH Tether for bogus TRON Tether to washtrade the peg up. Above peg, the situation reverses:
Nov 30, 2022 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
Well, i did some more digging, and there's no point going deeper into transactions on the BSC chain. Since most of the (in)action's happening on the BNB-chain, and shit's VERY sus there at first sight; i know enough.
But i wanna go over what a mess the BNB token has become too.
Binance hot wallet 22 with 1,006,999.98 BNB in balance. How did it get there?
Well OK maybe it's "normal market operations" moving a million BNB. Checking Wallet 20 (which has alot more transactions) to see where *it* got 1 million BNB from; i came across this:
Nov 14, 2022 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
OK guys, time to ask an uncomfortable question.
Over the past 4 days, #Tether's circulating market cap dropped about $3.5 billion. During this time, $4+ billion of Tethers were collectively sent to the Ethereum and TRON treasuries.
The question is: Why is it ALL Bitfinex?!
You can see the screenshots yourself, literally all Bitfinex.
Compare that to the issuance of Tether on TRON during the time the market cap was growing (page 2/3) - and it's not just Bitfinex receiving.
USDT also goes to Binance... and FTX.
Nov 13, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Look i'm tired as is, it's been a trip with a new thing hourly, so i'ma just blast this one out there.
There's plenty of stables off-peg right now, but i hadn't taken an indepth look at $FRAX yet - though i'd seen it on curve.
I know it's a "fractional reserve stable coin", so part collateralized and part algorithmic. Looking at their website app.frax.finance, this is what you see what they count as algorithmic and what as collateralized.
I felt left out with all the unsubstantiated rumors flying around; considering i'm known for using other people's data against them, and crypto's... Opaque.
Buuuut, i'm stubborn. And i remembered i hadn't heard anything about the Circle SPAC for a while.
That's the cleanest dirty shirt when it comes to Circle's inner workings, considering they legally have to disclose everything some way or another, even if it's buried.