#Tether watch!

I'ma bout to lose my goddamn mind. I've broken down a monthly+ chart of Bitfinex's USDT:USD peg, compared to BTC:USD on Coinbase and Tether's market cap; everything since the recent BTC bottom.

I mean to me these patterns are obvious. This is such a disaster.🧵 To clarify:

Every ponzi has a dollar (or local currency) limit. That's the real cash pile, which they use to service real dollar obligations; obligations that don't take casino tokens.

The real cash limit here is whatever leverage Abraxas/Cumberland/Wintermute can build up.

Let's just consolidate every country shall we? Chart of the day:

Despite every country having its problems, there's only two materially different on this chart.

And the material difference is; it's the only two refusing to do anything material about their debt.

https://twitter.com/DesoGames/status/1871546414129644002

You know why the fucking Greek 10 year is trading 1.4% below the US 10 year? Why the market is *explicitly* saying the US is riskier to lend money to than Greece?

Greek debt-to-gdp in 2023 was *lower* than 2012. Italy is our worst basket case running 6% deficits - still lower.

#Tether watch!

#Bitcoin tagged a $94K handle because the cartel needed some USD. We're sorry for the inconvenience this caused (thanks for the $1B in liquidations though).

The peg was restored and we'll return you to your regular slumber forthwith. USDT:USD on Kraken can only spike if somebody throws a bunch of dollars at it, which means somebody is buying Tethers with dollars en masse. Not the behavior of somebody trying to rapidly get out of crypto, it'd be the other way around.

And why not buy USDT with BTC directly?

#Tether watch!
BREAKING: 🚨Binance continues to abandon the TRON blockchain!🚨

They've done another $500M chainswap and are now up to $5B chainswapped THIS MONTH!

They were already adding USDT on ETH via the Kraken prints/chainswaps, but they accelerated it after the election.

https://twitter.com/DesoGames/status/1862069977810862303

Below top 100 holders on TRON now hold 82.5% of supply, and that'll increase if Tether swaps more/burns what's in the treasury.

Without Cold 3 which is backing BSC-USD tokens on the BNB chain, Binance has LESS THAN $1B USDT LEFT in their wallets *in the top 100*.

#Tether's done $1.4B in 2 days at 0%, so Saylor had best hurry up if he wants to keep pace with their rate of printing. $3.5B just this week alone. Especially since Tether's still at a high premium so they'll print way more. Infact they're printing hundreds of millions right now.

https://twitter.com/OccamiCrypto/status/1859225707852988697

DISGUSTANG

Jesus christ, calm the fuck down. #Tether's premium's hit $1.0023 on CMC, a full 10x above the minimum arb. Highest price since March atleast (though it's down a bit since i started making the thread). This happening while Binance does another $2B "chainswap" from TRON to ETH. To be fair, it was done a while after the runup started. Printer's started up on TRON again, including a Bitfinex TRON to ETH chainswap.

Second one in a few days:

https://x.com/DesoGames/status/1854261786658107527

#Tether watch!

I don't know who needs to hear this, but the vast majority of USDT holders+USDT on TRON are fake, and i'm tired of pretending they're not. Over the past year, accounts holding USDT on TRON have gone from 26 million to 43.6 million in straight linear fashion. 🧵 How come the transfer accounts and counts stay the same at the same time that number of accounts have nearly doubled; with only a 50% increase at best in transfer amounts?

#Tether/#Justinscam watch!

BREAKING: Justin Sun steals another ~$60M from #HTX customers with Tether's direct help, and #Binance money laundering to try and hide it. I just happen to catch it pretty much live so it was fast to track. Observe. 🧵 $60M (rounded) freshly redeemed Tethers, because ETH's quiet so it's not a chainswap.

It's notable because it came *directly* from Binance. Which is a giant proof that says "NOT ALL redemptions come via Bitfinex".

Keep that in mind when looking at all treasury ins in 3 months:

Just remember this while crypto prices go crazy again this week. Understand it's all fake and i can create yet another chart where market cap is unrelated to price action to the upside. This time in the biggest pairs in crypto. It'll end in tears #Bitcoin #Tether #Ethereum #FDUSD Luna/Terra had the EXACT same setup. If reducing Luna supply leads to increasing UST supply, then increasing Luna supply should reduce UST supply, because arbitrage works two ways! With UST it only worked one way; until all supply came to market at once.

PSA: Justin Sun has now (very fraudulently) printed OVER A BILLION DOLLARS worth of shitcoins.

His wallet holds $1B+ in Just Lend Wrapped Staked USDT.

The #TUSD movement that's happening rn is him swapping TRON TUSD for #stUSDT.
tronscan.org/#/address/TT2T…




This could also indicate stUSDT is infact (or atleast partially) backed by TUSD, which itself is naturally fraudulently printed.

No idea what this contract is for but it was made 03-08-2023: tronscan.org/#/contract/TLT…

#Tether watch!

Alright, i promised a post on this so here goes. #Bitfinex is amassing a much bigger Bitcoin hoard than previously disclosed. Either that (by far most likely), or some whale trusts only trusts Bitfinex to trade with, and only accumulates at quarter end, in bulk. Gonna be another screenshot heavy thread i'm afraid, since i've gotta prove ownership when that's hard to do. So.

This time we follow the money backwards. How did 53.5K Bitcoin accumulate in a ~6 month old wallet? Aside from a few tiny txn, all BTC came in via Bitfinex.

#Tether watch!

#Bitfinex is printing themselves money again. Quite literally. They're using a new account to try and obscure it but i can pretty much prove it at this point.

Lemme walk you through. So Tether printed $100 million to an account 10 hours ago on TRON.

This is a fresh account with 5 TRX txn and 2 other txn.

#Tether watch!

Got another juicy thread today tracking down Binance wash trading. Very juicy.

So, i was looking at the #USDT again that keeps flowing into #Binance via #Kraken. I did the crazy thing again, and found it in Binance Hot.

But this time i went even further. See that red line? I figured, maybe the bot network is stupid enough to transfer all the funds in at once, because there's pages of IN at 6H22M - but the amounts are *ASCENDING* in order! Sorted almost!

So i clicked on *every wallet* in that screenshot. Here's the analysis:

Been a while since i looked at the $FNMA Fannie Mae monthly summary.

And yknow what, history never repeats, but it often does rhyme... Dug out an old summary from December 2008, and the liquidation rate's looking like it's having the same "blow off bottom" as it had in 2008.

Here's how that went in 2009 (from the January 2010 summary). Mind you liquidations spiked higher during covid than during the 2011 peak:

#Tether watch!

More BRRR. But that's not the question of today, which remains these darn chainswaps Bitfinex keeps doing.

This isn't small potatoes yknow. $388 million in 5 days! I really wonder what the function of Bitfinex 2 on Ethereum is as well. Since these chainswaps keep originating from there, and the INs before the chainswap are a total mystery to me.

#Tether watch!

🚨P̨ͯ̎͐ͦ̓ͨ͟҉̣̺̖̳̝͔ͅR̛̞̩̟̬̺̪͙̱͋̓ͭͨͯ̽̄̈͌͂ͤ̑͘͡͠Į̛̯͚̣͖̼͇̪̖̭̹̱͖͎̬̭̒ͯ̍̾͒ͥ͒ͯͧ̒̈̈ͨ͋ͩ̃͟͝N̐͌ͮ͒̿̒҉̛̕͏̺̯̗̥̪̯̦̩̩̗̘̗͉͈̳̯̝͚̣̕T̡̈́ͧ̄ͩ͢͏̲̦̩̠̖̖̤͈!̴̶̢̧̢̭̝̻̣̞͓̯̱̺̦̳͕͍̗͍͍̼̽̅̂̒̈́̆͛͑̂ͪ̚🚨

The fuck?

https://twitter.com/DesoGames/status/1602529359180533761

So, in a nutshell, Coinmarketcap and Coingecko circulating supply have become completely unreliable. I've squared the numbers before as has @Cryptadamist, so it's notable that there's a change.

Which also means the market cap readout on EVERY WEBSITE is now unreliable.

Caught this with #Tether and #Binance doing their chain swap.

For some reason, that 2.8B didn't end up in Tether's treasury wallet directly. Somehow it ended up in multiple Binance hot wallets (as the top 11-50 holders grew alot compared to top 1-10).

And wouldn't you know it.. So what you're looking at is the moment of transfer out of Binance Cold 2, as well as 2 other Binance Hot wallets at that time which aren't the main one. Page 500 was already below 2 hours when i thought of tracking this transaction.

And while i can't correlate ins....

Couple of highlights. I think the DoJ's case will be more extensive, this is gonna take ages to dig everything up, buuuuut there's a few gems in there none the less:

https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1602622142188867585

Shoulda kept ya mouth shut buddy.

By the way; i wonder if people can figure out why Binance stopped withdrawals on USDC, but not USDT. And for anybody saying "it's for arbitrage" - please compare the last few hours on Kraken, Coinbase, Binance and Bitfinex and tell me where arbitrage happened.

#Tether watch!

Print! +~$84 million $USDT from last night. But in keeping with the recent trend, i've got *yet more* suspicious behavior catalogued. Tether's in deep trouble if not straight up dying.

First off - i can finally tie the volume spikes into price action: If you still think that's a glitch with THAT much convenient timing, there's nothing i can do for you, sorry. For the rest; the big spikes simply mean alot of quick transactions at scale, which CMC aggregates with an algo causing these big spikes.

The spikes can be small too.

Correlation does not equal causation, atleast in this case i don't think so. Still, makes for a hell of a chart.
#Tether $DXY $TLT Here's the closeup though, before it drops off the 15m chart and it becomes less granular.

Tether's depeg happened to happen on the same day the last CPI report came out, which dropped the DXY and spiked TLT - inverting their relationship ever since then.