2006-15: Conservatives dominate. In 2011 Cons achieve near hegemony. Liberals relegated to third behind NDP. talk of realignment.
2015: Liberals make unexpected return under Trudeau and win maj.
2019: Libs unexpected lose maj.
Trudeau called the election because he thought he could win a maj again. But he didn’t need to call it as he could comfortably govern as a minority with the NDP. He’s wilted in the short campaign. Most pundits/poll saying as a result they’ll be another Lib minority.
System is First Past the Post, a la UK. System is more multi-party overall though though so even less predictable. Been prone to some huge swings over the last decade.
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So with a US trade deal off the table where are we with post-Brexit trade deals overall? 🧵
DIT tells me they've signed 68 trade deals since Brexit.
Which sounds great (about third of the globe).
But vast majority of these were EU rollover deals, ie the same we had as members
Those rollover deals include
Albania
Canada
Cameroon
Carribean States
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
Chile
Honduras
Nicaragua
Cote d'Ivoire
Mauritius
Seychelles
Zimbabwe
Ghana
Israel
Jordan
Kenya
Kosovo
Lebanon
Mexico
Moldova
N Macdeonia
Pacific States
South Korea
Turkey
As for bespoke deals, ie deals which go beyond that which we enjoyed with the EU, DIT says there are improved deals with
Japan
Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein
An Agreement in Principle with Australia
.@AngelaRayner:”Can I begin with my commiserations to the Prime Minister after he flew away to the US and made absolutely zero progress on the trade deal that he promised us.”
Raab replies that “thanks to our diplomatic engagement” US has lifted the UK travel ban
No doubt that UK has been working v hard behind the scenes to get this lifted. But Biden decision predated PM meeting and applied to all of UK and EU.
Rayner asks Raab how much the UC cut and NICS rise will cost a worker on £18k a year
Raab says govt helped pay the wages of millions through pandemic and UC rise was always supposed to be temporary
This trip (and Pelosi’s to UK) has reinforced what we already knew: 1) Democrats and this administration are not especially interested in a trade deal with the UK 2) Even if they were the Protocol/NI remains overwhelmingly more important.
They’ve been entirely consistent about this (you can argue the Dems have been even going back to Obama). It’s just that SW1 often hasn’t seemed to want to listen.
This trip was the moment that reality dawned- with PM effectively conceding it won’t happen in Biden’s first term.
FTAs don’t don’t matter nearly as much as you might think given the outsized position they’ve had in our discourse in recent years. But they were one of the big economic pillars of the Brexit argument and the US deal the biggest of all. For at least the medium term, it has gone.
Ben Bradshaw: “What Keir is trying to do is to ensure that what the Labour Party under his leadership is doing is looking out to the country, out to the public and is not constantly inward looking and involved in faction fighting.” #Newsnight
Critics will say that looking inward is precisely what this row will endure (and rule changes exactly what Labour “moderates” criticised Corbyn for).
Talking to Labour sources they’re convinced that if they can get this done (or largely done) quickly the rule changes on deselection will make the party more harmonious and act as a signal to the country that Starmer is serious about party reform.
"We're mourning 4.5 million people. From every region. From every background."
Says this decade will be a "decisive one" for the global community, especially on climate change.
This is his first speech to the UN as President
Biden with an oblique reference to Afghanistan: "We stand at an inflection point in history...instead of continuing to fighting the wars of the past we are fixing our eyes on devoting our resources involved with challenges which hold the keys to our collective future."