Let's be clear about what we're talking about with the attempted coup on January 6, including the new info in the John Eastman memo.

We're not talking about "another term" with Trump as president.

If he would have pulled this off, he would effectively be a dictator. . .

1/
Because he would have (1) overthrown an election and (2) installed himself as president in place of the duly elected president.

It would mean all democratic institutions had broken down.
It would also mean that the population would either tolerate it or be subdued by force.

2/
When we say "he came close" the question is "close to what?"

I believe we came close to a major constitutional crisis and possibly a great deal of violence and bloodshed.

3/
"What if the Supreme Court allowed it?"

The courts had already made clear they were not going to hand Trump the election.

I believe, to succeed (meaning take over all parts of the government) he would have needed the military willing to participate in a military coup.

4/
The violence we would have experienced is whatever these guys would have been able to pull off.

It would have been them against law enforcement.

5/
Right-wing extremists would rather live in an autocracy than a liberal democracy.

I am using "liberal democracy" in this sense⤵️

Liberal democracies tend to expand (include more people) and they see this as illegitimate.

6/
The current right-wing extremism we are seeing today is a reaction to the civil rights movement and changes brought about since 1954 when the Supreme Court declared racial segregation illegal.

They can't and won't tolerate an inclusive government.


7/
The best way to understand what is happening is this:

The United States had never actually been a multi-racial democracy. Before the modern civil rights movement, America was ruled by white men.

For the past 60 years, we've been trying to make the transition.

8/
What we are seeing now is a reaction. They don't want the US to make the bridge. They want to go back to the time when white men ruled.

That's what John Eastman wants. They are terrified of a multi-racial democracy and think that Trump is the better alternative.

9/
I left something out back there.

The military made clear it was not going to help Trump stay in power, and I don't believe that the US military would help overthrow an election.

10/
Right.

In a very convoluted way (sorry) I argued that we were not actually close to a dictatorship. Trump would have needed the courts or military.

We were, however, close to chaos if, say, Pence had gone along.

But he didn't.

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More from @Teri_Kanefield

22 Sep
Scholar Hungarian scholar Balint Magyar offers a theory that explains why the US held out against the same tactics that caused other countries to collapse into autocracy.

His theory also explains why comparisons across nations don’t always work.

1/
While writing about post-communist mafia states, he talked about the “big bang” theory:

He says that the “conditions preceding the democratic big bang have a decisive role in the formation of the system.”

2/ Image
Here’s how I understand the theory (to use Russia as an example. I'll get to Germany in a moment).

At the time of the Russian Big Bang (early 1990s, when a Democracy struggled to be born) the Communist Party had a monopoly on power and resources.

3/
Read 10 tweets
20 Sep
According to John Eastman, "The Constitution assigns the power to the vice president as the ultimate arbiter" when electoral votes are counted.

(It's not true)

But does he still think that's true?

If Democrats create a dispute, can Kamala Harris pick the next president?
A key error here is that it assumes that the Electoral Count Act is illegal and assumes that states can set aside the laws they have on the books for allocating their electors.

In fact, rules governing the election have to be in place before the election.
The idea was to create chaos and give Trump's claim that he won the election more legitimacy.

He still wouldn't have stayed in the White House because this wouldn't have worked -- but it may have persuaded more people that Biden didn't win, which undermines the government.
Read 9 tweets
19 Sep
Criminal Law for Twitter 101

For this week's video/blog post, an analysis of Trump’s criminal liability in Georgia (As I promised yesterday)

Spoiler: The correct answer to every legal question is: "It's complicated." (Alternate answer: "It depends.”)

1/
For people who prefer to read, here's a transcript.
terikanefield.com/trumps-crimina…

By the way, some of left-leaning Twitter has a weird* idea of criminal law and the justice system. They want justice to be swift and brutal.

The problem: That can backfire. Right?

*authoritarian

2/
For someone to be prosecuted, there has to be a specific statute on the books, and the prosecutor has to prove each element of the offense beyond a reasonable doubt. This is a high standard.

One question is whether Trump has violated Georgia Code § 21-2-604.

3/
Read 18 tweets
18 Sep
For all the people in my mentions saying this like this, please see the video I recorded last Sunday.

I think people are confusing "They're still fighting" with "they think they won."

I also find the "no consequences" peculiar. Trump lost. He's out of power . . .

1/
Dems hold both houses. (Slim majorities, but still)

Trump lawyers are being sanctions and disbarred.

Hundreds of insurrectionists are being criminally prosecuted.

Trump is facing countless lawsuits.

Criminal investigations are ongoing.

See:

2/
Okay, "We'd like to see all the people involved in jail," is quite different from, "There have been no consequences."

Right?


3/
Read 5 tweets
12 Sep
This week, I addressed this question about Republican attacks on democracy: “I honestly can’t take it anymore. When will it end?”

And this comment: “I’m really worried they’ll try again and next time they’ll succeed.”



I’ll have a transcript shortly.

1/
Scholars relied on: @dziblatt, Steven Levitsky, Max Weber, Lucan Way and, indirectly, @karen_stenner

After more ☕️ I'll come back and attempt a Twitter Summary.

The transcript is here: terikanefield.com/when-will-it-e…

2/
The latest attacks are in the Calfornia recall with a chorus of voices, including TFG, insisting that if Newsom wins, it will be because the election was rigged (CA went for Biden 63.5% to Trump 34.3)

The problem: A swatch of angry and militant Californians think it’s true.

3/
Read 22 tweets
8 Sep
This means that DeSantis is likely to keep losing.

The interesting question, of course, is why he's pushing a losing and unpopular issue.

The judge held that while Florida law gives parents control over their children's health, there is a clear exception . . .

1/
. . . for government actions that are (1) needed to protect public health and are (2) reasonable and limited in scope.

He said a school district’s decision to require student masking to prevent the spread of the virus falls within that exemption.

2/
I can't imagine such a debate. If Trump wants the nomination (and is in a position to be the nominee -- I am skeptical) I suspect everyone will step back.

I think the contest is to be Trump II

Read 4 tweets

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