Scholar Hungarian scholar Balint Magyar offers a theory that explains why the US held out against the same tactics that caused other countries to collapse into autocracy.

His theory also explains why comparisons across nations don’t always work.

1/
While writing about post-communist mafia states, he talked about the “big bang” theory:

He says that the “conditions preceding the democratic big bang have a decisive role in the formation of the system.”

2/
Here’s how I understand the theory (to use Russia as an example. I'll get to Germany in a moment).

At the time of the Russian Big Bang (early 1990s, when a Democracy struggled to be born) the Communist Party had a monopoly on power and resources.

3/
.@mashagessen explains this well. In fact, I learned about Balint Magyar from her.

Russia never had working democratic institutions.

Germany had a very different history from the US. Until 1918 (do I have the year right?) Germany had a kind of monarchy.

4/
The Weimar Republic was created out of whole cloth amid much chaos (including economic chaos.)

At the time of the American Big Bang, we lived in a hierarchy with white men at the top. We had operating democratic institutions . . .

5/
By operating democratic institutions, I mean courts based on rule of law, a jury system, local governments.

But the institutions protected the freedom of white men only.

So that’s our default.

6/
That, I think, is why people like McConnell and Pence could not take the additional step and destroy democratic institutions altogether.

They want to keep them.

But only for white men because they are afraid of a fully functioning multi-racial democracy.

7/
. . .which brings me back to the argument I made here.

Trump could have created much more chaos had (for example) Pence gaveled in Trump as president, but we were not moments away from Trump overturning the election.

Too much still stood in the way.
I just looked back and saw all the typing errors.

You see, I have these pesky little keyboard gremlins that jump onto my keyboard and make mischief.

All errors are their fault.
Thanks @americanarena.

Comparing two countries has limits.

The US government is a complex sprawling system that spreads power widely. This makes it hard to get anything done. It also makes it hard for a dictator to take over.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Teri Kanefield

Teri Kanefield Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Teri_Kanefield

21 Sep
Let's be clear about what we're talking about with the attempted coup on January 6, including the new info in the John Eastman memo.

We're not talking about "another term" with Trump as president.

If he would have pulled this off, he would effectively be a dictator. . .

1/
Because he would have (1) overthrown an election and (2) installed himself as president in place of the duly elected president.

It would mean all democratic institutions had broken down.
It would also mean that the population would either tolerate it or be subdued by force.

2/
When we say "he came close" the question is "close to what?"

I believe we came close to a major constitutional crisis and possibly a great deal of violence and bloodshed.

3/
Read 12 tweets
20 Sep
According to John Eastman, "The Constitution assigns the power to the vice president as the ultimate arbiter" when electoral votes are counted.

(It's not true)

But does he still think that's true?

If Democrats create a dispute, can Kamala Harris pick the next president?
A key error here is that it assumes that the Electoral Count Act is illegal and assumes that states can set aside the laws they have on the books for allocating their electors.

In fact, rules governing the election have to be in place before the election.
The idea was to create chaos and give Trump's claim that he won the election more legitimacy.

He still wouldn't have stayed in the White House because this wouldn't have worked -- but it may have persuaded more people that Biden didn't win, which undermines the government.
Read 9 tweets
19 Sep
Criminal Law for Twitter 101

For this week's video/blog post, an analysis of Trump’s criminal liability in Georgia (As I promised yesterday)

Spoiler: The correct answer to every legal question is: "It's complicated." (Alternate answer: "It depends.”)

1/
For people who prefer to read, here's a transcript.
terikanefield.com/trumps-crimina…

By the way, some of left-leaning Twitter has a weird* idea of criminal law and the justice system. They want justice to be swift and brutal.

The problem: That can backfire. Right?

*authoritarian

2/
For someone to be prosecuted, there has to be a specific statute on the books, and the prosecutor has to prove each element of the offense beyond a reasonable doubt. This is a high standard.

One question is whether Trump has violated Georgia Code § 21-2-604.

3/
Read 18 tweets
18 Sep
For all the people in my mentions saying this like this, please see the video I recorded last Sunday.

I think people are confusing "They're still fighting" with "they think they won."

I also find the "no consequences" peculiar. Trump lost. He's out of power . . .

1/
Dems hold both houses. (Slim majorities, but still)

Trump lawyers are being sanctions and disbarred.

Hundreds of insurrectionists are being criminally prosecuted.

Trump is facing countless lawsuits.

Criminal investigations are ongoing.

See:

2/
Okay, "We'd like to see all the people involved in jail," is quite different from, "There have been no consequences."

Right?


3/
Read 5 tweets
12 Sep
This week, I addressed this question about Republican attacks on democracy: “I honestly can’t take it anymore. When will it end?”

And this comment: “I’m really worried they’ll try again and next time they’ll succeed.”



I’ll have a transcript shortly.

1/
Scholars relied on: @dziblatt, Steven Levitsky, Max Weber, Lucan Way and, indirectly, @karen_stenner

After more ☕️ I'll come back and attempt a Twitter Summary.

The transcript is here: terikanefield.com/when-will-it-e…

2/
The latest attacks are in the Calfornia recall with a chorus of voices, including TFG, insisting that if Newsom wins, it will be because the election was rigged (CA went for Biden 63.5% to Trump 34.3)

The problem: A swatch of angry and militant Californians think it’s true.

3/
Read 22 tweets
8 Sep
This means that DeSantis is likely to keep losing.

The interesting question, of course, is why he's pushing a losing and unpopular issue.

The judge held that while Florida law gives parents control over their children's health, there is a clear exception . . .

1/
. . . for government actions that are (1) needed to protect public health and are (2) reasonable and limited in scope.

He said a school district’s decision to require student masking to prevent the spread of the virus falls within that exemption.

2/
I can't imagine such a debate. If Trump wants the nomination (and is in a position to be the nominee -- I am skeptical) I suspect everyone will step back.

I think the contest is to be Trump II

Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(