G a a h Profile picture
Sep 22, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
3.5 channel breaks in 2013, reversal requires 4 total channel breaks, totaling 1 entire sub-cycle.
2.5 channel breaks in the correction we are currently in, much softer than 2013 even retracing -55% since the last top.
After testing in the Neutral Zone, retracement to the stealth point (50% of the REFERENCE CHANNEL) historically occurs.

This point is important as it is where market sentiment turned, as well as being the daily close of the first dip and also the bar close of the Monthly chart.
The Neutral Zone is the top of the Resistance. After breaking through, it will be the reference support, as it is the lower range of the new Reference Channel for the trend.
In 2013 you can clearly see the top of the resistance being confirmed as support after breaking through. This is the target after the move to the stealth point around $37,000
The difference between the channel breaks is seen above the Neutral Zone. In 2013 the movement within the sub-cycle was larger compared to the current one, yet it was not Reversal of the main trend.
Therefore, it is still fully open for a retest in the quoted range for the price resumption to move forward, thus forming a bullish PIVOT after a few weeks of highs.
[Current Momentum can technically be seen in 2013]
#Bitcoin #BTC

Read also in a quick and direct way at Quicktake:
cryptoquant.com/quicktake/614a…

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More from @gaah_im

May 19, 2022
#Bitcoin 's "post Halving cycle" is compromised.

After each new Halving the price has developed cyclically different behavior.
The structures are similar, but not the same.

-Follow the thread below👇 1/5🧵
In 2013 the price advanced 2 full channels (3 phases), leaving the first move without phase4.

In 2017 price advanced only 1 full channel (3 phases) besides phase 4 being the fastest in history, until then.

#BTC #Bitcoin

2/5🧵
In the current cycle, in 2021, price stopped at phase2 and did not realize phase3, besides realizing phase4 after phase1 and now being inside phase4 again.

A cyclical mess. #BTC

3/5🧵
Read 5 tweets
Mar 18, 2022
The price has tried the last 3 times to break $40.8k and was successful, next testing $44.4k.

However it came back all 3 times equally, ripping down in search of $37k.

This time price is fighting with high volatility at $40.8k

#Bitcoin

1/4🧵
$40.8k is the key to probability being in favor of a trend reversal (breaking $44.4k), currently the risk of breaking $37k still exists if $40.8k continues to be Resistance!

2/4🧵

Below $37k the Bears are "forcing the bar", so this is the strategic point to be held by the Bulls for the accumulation structure ($60k-$30k) to remain bullish.

50% of the reference channel balances the strength of the armies (Bull vs. Bear).

3/4🧵
Read 4 tweets
Mar 17, 2022
During an uptrend people rush to buy and sell with a sense of desperation, not wanting to be left out of valuations.

Such holders move the Network at these times, creating UTXO/spending UTXO at a profit.

#Bitcoin

1/5🧵
After a spent output is realized, the price in USD of the UTXO created/UTXO spent shows whether the UTXO realized profit/loss.

With one more variable (lifespan) included, in the realization it categorizes whether it is STH(age 1h~155days) or LTH(age >155days).

2/5🧵
That said, when demand is hot in the short to medium term, the reflection in the chain by Short Term Holders (STH) is shown by the #SOPR.

3/5🧵
Read 5 tweets
Sep 23, 2021
The best time to buy #Bitcoin is now!

The ratio MVRV is defined as the market capitalization of an asset divided by the realized capitalization. With this indicator it is possible to map the behavior in previous cycles and define the revenue of the current moment.

Thread👇👇
1. Ranking the phases of the cycles in sequence of 1-3 starting with NUMBER 1 after the start of the bull market and the top meeting in the middle of the bullish cycle.
2. There is a historical moment in the middle of the bull run, where it always looks like the end of the valuation, however it is just a short-term top in the middle of the bullish run. By hitting that top and offering the best buying moment within the bull market, 👇
Read 16 tweets
Sep 21, 2021
The yellow dotted arrow shows the complete move, it advances 0.5 of the channel in a complete move.

The breakout attempt above 50% led to the trap, and is discounted later in the PIVOT to miss the main bottom of the last few pattern moves. Image
Breaking through sets up a new full move and hits $37k, at the stealth point of the price rebound.

It has only walked 0.5 of the move (the discount at 50% and at the PIVOT). This moment is crucial for the Bulls to advance above $44,400 and have a daily close. Image
If this does not happen, the full move must be completed.

The quick turn around after the dip to $40k has a high probability of being Short positions.

Interest at this time in opening short positions should increase as sentiment is in fear and speculators take advantage. Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 21, 2021
About Management and Risk, follow the Thread👇

1. Due to the Macro environment in the chain and the cyclical moment that #Bitcoin is in, I am leaving the more aggressive Risk Management in the Private Fund (BANCA2) that I manage.
2. Today we have positions in over 10 different crypto-actives, including the largest position in #Bitcoin .

The targets set are according to the expansions of my operating model, so they will only be hit when the market wants them.
3. First target in 2 #Bitcoin operations were reached around $51,000 - $52,000

Still the Private Investment Fund has 45-50% of the dollar cash available for operational, plus that cash will go up if it needs it, as there is more liquidity in the Fund for this next leg up.
Read 9 tweets

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