Ever so slightly as mail-in ballots are counted, the gap in total vote between Conservatives and Liberals shrink. Went from +2.3 on e-day to +1.4 now. About 4/10 mail-in votes are from Liberals in a six party count. Wherever they're leading, they'll likely hold. #Elxn44 #Cdnpoli
Down to +1.3 now, constantly closing. In the end, the difference in "popular vote" that means nothing in Canada will be about 200k. All because Conservatives run up the score in Alberta and Saskatchewan, like Democrats with California in the US presidential. #Elxn44 #Cdnpoli
When all is counted, it's looking like Conservative seat count and vote share will be lower under Erin O'Toole than it was under Andrew Scheer. It's pretty hard to say PPC wasn't a factor - if anyone is still saying that. #Elxn44 #Cdnpoli
Once Nanaimo-Ladysmith is finalized, and if Vancouver Granville stays Liberal, we're going to have 20% of the NDP caucus coming from Vancouver Island. This is the new Hamilton. #Elxn44 #Cdnpoli
While Vancouver Island is the new Hamilton, actual Hamilton no longer anything close to an NDP fortress. Liberals took 3/5 seats there, NDP has one of the other two. Hamilton Centre stays true to orange with the very formidable Matthew Green. #Elxn44 #Cdnpoli
With more mail-ins counted, the Conservative "popular vote" lead is now just +1.1 or about 193k votes. Again, they did that largely by running up votes in Alberta & Saskatchewan. More people than that ride the Bloor-Danforth subway line in a non-pandemic weekday. #Elxn44 #Cdnpoli
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
