Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Elxn44

Most recents (24)

Today I’m going to talk about this ‘Full Slate’ the NDP had in #Elxn44

There were amazing candidates on there. In fact, our grassroots is full of people perfect for the job - and determined to do the work.

But it wasn’t what it looked like.

And the stories keep rolling in…
Sure, we filled every spot.

But how did we get there?

Was it democratic? No

Did locals get a say in their candidates? Mostly, no.

Did it impact our result? Absolutely!

#cdnpoli
December 2019, just after the election, a group of Toronto area candidates gathered for dinner.

Guest caller: Jagmeet

He makes us all a promise.

To thank us for our commitment, our dedication to the movement, he tells us…
Read 6 tweets
Ever so slightly as mail-in ballots are counted, the gap in total vote between Conservatives and Liberals shrink. Went from +2.3 on e-day to +1.4 now. About 4/10 mail-in votes are from Liberals in a six party count. Wherever they're leading, they'll likely hold. #Elxn44 #Cdnpoli
Down to +1.3 now, constantly closing. In the end, the difference in "popular vote" that means nothing in Canada will be about 200k. All because Conservatives run up the score in Alberta and Saskatchewan, like Democrats with California in the US presidential. #Elxn44 #Cdnpoli
When all is counted, it's looking like Conservative seat count and vote share will be lower under Erin O'Toole than it was under Andrew Scheer. It's pretty hard to say PPC wasn't a factor - if anyone is still saying that. #Elxn44 #Cdnpoli
Read 5 tweets
🧵When @Ipsos @darrellbricker takes on #JagmeetSingh’s performance in his #Elxn44 analysis for @globalnews, he dispels the myth that 4th place loser #NDP “holds the balance of power” anymore than they did in the last Parliament. That Singh is no kingmaker.
globalnews.ca/news/8210659/c… Image
WHY? ##NDP faithful are coming outta the woodwork to tell us 1 reason NDP didn’t win more seats. It’s not just that #JagmeetSingh is a lying narcissist @JessaMcLeanNDP tells us Singh turned the NDP into his own branding Co @ expense of the party&candidates
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1440360…
Worse than a #NDP platform more concerned w VirtueSignalling than substance. Or leadership handicapping local ridings. #JagmeetSingh has weaponized legit #cdnpoli cynicism against Cdns. Forget PMJT not fixing every prob in 6yrs. I can’t think of anything…
globalnews.ca/video/8209836/…
Read 6 tweets
Voters turned up at the ballot box at the lowest rate in more than a decade to participate in #elxn44vote, according to preliminary data from Elections Canada.

Across the country, turnout was at least 59 per cent.

tgam.ca/elxn-trunout
That 59 per cent turnout figure will change as @ElectionsCan_E verifies roughly a million mail-in ballots.

The agency will also be counting ballots by those who were not registered but showed up at a polling station. Both those totals are not yet known.
tgam.ca/elxn-trunout Image
Turnout in 2021 was lower than the previous two elections:

🗳️ 2019: 67% of registered voters cast a ballot;
🗳️ 2015: 68.3% of registered voters turned out at the polls.

tgam.ca/elxn-trunout
Read 7 tweets
I was given a few seconds on @CBCTheNational last night to push back on simplistic narratives surrounding the PPC and its effect on the outcome of #Elxn44. I want to expand on these concerns 🧵1/

cbc.ca/player/play/19…
A lot of people are making strong claims about the effect of the PPC on Conservative Party fortunes by simply adding the PPC vote to the Conservatives. Not so fast... 2/
This assumes that in the absence of a PPC option these voters would have 1) turned out to vote; and 2) voted for O'Toole's CPC if they did so. Let's unpack this assumption..3/
Read 14 tweets
A question everyone should be asking: WHY has #cdnmedia failed to report on one of the biggest political scandals in decades. O’Toole & #CPC colluded w/ #Conservative premiers to delay implementing covid measures until after #elxn44vote. People died as a result #CovidInquiryNow ImageImageImageImage
The very next day after #elxn44vote, #JasonKenney shuffles Shandro, #ScottMoe flies under the radar & the UCP sends an official request to the Trudeau gov’t for help. (Because of jurisdiction the feds must be invited). Something UCP could’ve done weeks ago. #CovidInquiryNow ImageImage
I’d just like to underscore this point. The letter sent by Ric McIver the day he replaced Shandro, is extremely revealing. A “State of Public Health Emergency” was declared on Sept 15, but no formal request was made to the Trudeau gov’t until immediately after #Elxn44. #ABleg Image
Read 6 tweets
Thread:

CPC gains in the provinces of ON and BC didn’t translate into seats into the GTA and GVR.

To investigate this, I sliced the electoral map against some demographic values. Two values jumped out at me: visible minorities (generally) and ethnic Chinese. #elxn44 #cdnpoli
1. Here are maps of GVR and the GTA with ridings shaded by percent VM population:
2. And then here are maps of the ridings with the raw numbers of ethnic Chinese voters:
Read 16 tweets
If you think our news reporting covered the key themes of this election well, name one shadow cabinet critic in Canada’s third party, & an issue of concern they’re advocating.

#cdnpoli
#elxn44
How many hours of coverage did the PPC get, just by throwing tantrums at PMJT’s appearances?

Relative to that third party you know nothing about, which won more seats than Jagmeet Singh…

#cdnpoli #elxn44
The point is that the press—the only industry/profession specifically named & protected in our constitution—has a role to play in elections, to inform the public about matters of national importance.
Read 11 tweets
The people have spoken! Our next government will be another minority. But what does that mean in practical terms? Check out these awesome past Policy Options pieces for some insight as to what you might expect! #CdnPoli #Elxn44 #🧵
In this piece from 2011, Dan Gagnier examines the nature of majority and minority government from the perspective of his personal involvement in public service and political service. options-po.li/39rynKw
In 2016, @EmmMacfarlane reminded us that we don't *actually* elect the prime minister. He says it's more than just semantics and explains why it matters for electoral reform. options-po.li/3lNmuEs
Read 5 tweets
🇨🇦 With Canada's ruling Liberals projected to form a minority government, here's a look at how voters decided their vote and what they had to say 👇More #Elxn44 coverage: twitter.com/i/events/14313… 1/9
♻️ Emily Wynn, a first-year student at Ryerson University, said action on #climatechange is what guided her vote for #Elxn44. After a summer of record-breaking weather, climate change action was the top issue this election, data shows reut.rs/3zCqmx3 2/9
🏞 For many Canadians, 2021 is the year the climate crisis hit home. John Moore said his message is to make the world know that Ontario and Canada care about the environment #Elxn44 reut.rs/3zCqmx3 3/9
Read 7 tweets
The same old Liberals will form the next government – but with a new agenda of measures that affects your personal finances if you’re a parent, a home buyer, a senior or a high earner, writes @rcarrick.

#Elxn44 #cdnpoli

tgam.ca/elxn-promises-…
Since affordability was an election theme for all parties, @rcarrick explains how the Liberal election promises will affect your finances – from new taxes to daycare to help for home buyers.

tgam.ca/elxn-promises-…
If you're a parent...🧑‍🍼

The most financially significant Liberal measure for families is $10-a-day child care, which is targeted to be in place in five years or less.

tgam.ca/elxn-promises-…
Read 6 tweets
The older I get and the more I study the relationship between voters and political actors, the less patient I am with fanciful narratives that commentators concoct to explain the results to themselves and their audiences. Canadians didn't "say" anything. They reacted.+ #Elxn44
In an election, Canadians have only one or two choices to make: whether to vote and, if so, for whom. There's no arguing with the fact that people explain their choices to themselves in all manner of ways but, ultimately, they must choose one of the candidates presented to them.+
Those individual races are as diverse as you can possibly imagine. And the motivations that underlie one voter's decision cannot be easily applied even to a voter who makes the same choice. We literally do not know *why* people make the specific choice they do.+
Read 10 tweets
My post-election takeaway. We've got a big Civics IQ/EQ deficit in Canada. Many users of social media have decided that facts don't matter. They'll just invent their own. Mainstream broadcasters don't care about facts, either. /2 #cdnpoli #Elxn44
2/ One fix would be a better public broadcaster. Instead, the CBC is quasi-commercial because its mandate and funding are at a mismatch, so it emulates the worst of private broadcasting for revenue purposes. /3
3/ The CBC needs a mandate that specifies that it focus on information and not conflict. Ratings for advertising should be irrelevant to the public broadcaster. The CBC needs to stop advertising itself as "what you need to know" and start providing the goods.
Read 5 tweets
Vote efficiency isn’t accidental. All three Trudeau Liberal campaigns were among the most efficient in 🇨🇦 history. The unsung team of super geniuses put together and led by @tompitfield at Data Sciences deserves a lot more credit than they’ve ever received. #Elxn44 (43 and 42)
Campaigns are a ruthless optimization exercise: where will your incremental investment drive the maximum return in real time, especially at the end. Elexns 42 and 43 were amazing. But the more I look at last night’s returns the more I’m awestruck. #Elxn44
My buddy David tweeted this funny observation last night, but it makes a serious point. You probably couldn’t do this in 2006 because Tom, Sean, Megan and John hadn’t invented it yet.
Read 5 tweets
Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party won their third straight election, but failed to capture a majority mandate in Canada’s #Elxn44.

By early Tuesday morning, the results nearly mirrored the seat count when parliament was dissolved.

tgam.ca/decibel-elxn
So now the question that is being asked is: Was the campaign worth it?

Political columnist @JohnIbbitson and parliamentary reporter @kkirkup join #TheDecibel to break down what happened on election night and what it means for the country.

#Elxn44

tgam.ca/decibel-elxn
🔊 @kkirkup: Perhaps this election is going to go down as the Groundhog Day Election. Frankly, I think, there is a sentiment among a large number of Canadians that this election didn’t need to happen in the first place. And, yet, here we are.

playpodca.st/decibel
Read 7 tweets
🇨🇦La soirée d’élection fédérale anticipée est passée au #Canada.
Une occasion pour comprendre plus finement l’architecture politique de ce pays et son traitement médiatique.
Apparemment, on est sur quelque chose de comparable à une dissolution d’assemblée nationale.
#Elxn44
Les parlementaires représentent chacun une des 338 circonscriptions. Le scrutin se fait en 1 tour et le parti ayant le plus de député élu choisi son premier ministre. Le cap des 170 (338/2 + 1) députés note la majorité au parlement, facilitant les décisions du gouvernement. Infographie majorité élections radio canada
Au-delà du nombre de députés, un parti ayant eu la majorité de député peut ne pas avoir la majorité des suffrages (un peu comme à l’américaine), mais ce sont le député qui compte.
Les Canadiens semblent s’orienter vers un gouvernement minoritaire c.-à-d. avec moins de 157 sièges. présentation carte radio canada
Read 7 tweets
Anyone know where I can download (perhaps a csv) current electoral results? Or at least a website where I can sort results by vote margin?

#Elxn44
I found the 'special ballot voting kit' CSV here.
elections.ca/vote/app/vbm/r…

Still working on the results CSV, but I'm told it is there....
Ah, courtesy @trevortombe and @jenwinter_YYC, here is a direct link to an ascii file with the results by district.

Not sure how they found this link; I can't see a button for it on the @ElectionsCan_E website, but I can confirm it works!

enr.elections.ca/DownloadResult…
Read 4 tweets
🗳️ Election 2021: Latest updates

@JustinTrudeau didn’t get the Liberal majority he hoped for in Monday’s election, but with 158 seats leading or elected, the party is set to govern in a 44th Parliament that looks largely the same as the 43rd. #elxn44

tgam.ca/3lN1zRF
In coming days and weeks, Trudeau is likely to face questions from his caucus about whether the snap #elexn44 call was worth it, but Monday night he focused on what he called the “clear direction” from voters to stay on a progressive course.

#cdnpoli

tgam.ca/3EGc2XI
To form a majority, a party needs 170 or more MPs in the 338-member House of Commons.

As of Tuesday morning, the seat distribution was more or less the same as Aug. 15, when Parliament was dissolved. #elxn44vote

tgam.ca/3lN1zRF
Read 7 tweets
A snap election called during a pandemic was bound to deliver intrigue. Here is a brief look at 5 of the notable winners and losers from #Elxn44.

tgam.ca/2Z8AhO2
Winner: Jenica Atwin, the Green Party floor-crosser who joined the Liberals just three months before the election, held a small lead with most polls reporting. Atwin made a major breakthrough for the Greens in 2019 as their first MP from Atlantic Canada.
tgam.ca/2Z8AhO2
Winner: In #KitchenerCentre, the Green Party appeared to have made a long-awaited Ontario breakthrough, thanks in part to a Liberal party candidate withdrawing from the race. Mike Morrice looked set to win with roughly 33 per cent of the vote.

tgam.ca/2Z8AhO2
Read 7 tweets
#Elxn44: @JustinTrudeau's Liberals won a third straight election on Monday, but fell short of the majority they sought in the snap vote and will return to government with what will effectively be a status quo Parliament.

tgam.ca/3lEljHg
The Liberal victory left @erinotoole's leadership of the Conservative Party in jeopardy. O'Toole rose to the helm of the party last year promising to deliver in seat-rich Ontario.

tgam.ca/3lEljHg
But O'Toole struggled in the campaign with questions on how he would handle the pandemic and wavered on key platform pledges.

tgam.ca/3lEljHg
Read 6 tweets
Word is Tim Uppal is about to arrive and speak to his team. Excitement building here. #elxn44 #cdnpoli #yeg
They’ve brought in a truck and Conservative Tim Uppal going to be standing in the back of the truck to give a speech to supporters about his win in Edmonton Mill Woods shortly. #yeg #elxn44 #cdnpoli Image
The crowd has more than doubled at this point — I count more than 100 people here now.
Read 7 tweets
1/ Ridings NDP narrowly trails in:
-Halifax (1,249 votes; 2.7%)
-Davenport (147; 0.9%)
-Hamilton Mountain (642; 1.9%)
-Nickel Belt (1,431; 3.9%)
-Parkdale-High Park (473; 2.3%)
-Spadina-Fort York (246; 2.9%)
-Sudbury (700; 2.2%)
-Saskatoon West (239; 1.4%)

#Elxn44
2/
-Kootenay-Columbia (644; 2,2%)
-Nanaimo-Ladysmith (156, 0.3%)
-Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge (736; 2.7%)

Not saying all will flip but I definitely think some will. 30-32 seats seems likely outcome. Mail in ballots will be decisive for some of these very close races. #Elxn44
NDP now very slightly trails in Windsor-Tecumseh (514 votes; 0.9%) but NDP are expected to win this one once all the votes are in.

Whoa, unexpectedly close race in Laurier-Sainte-Marie! NDP only 824 votes behind (4.7%).
Read 5 tweets
.@CanadianGreens Leader @AnnamiePaul says they are sending two, possibly three Greens back to Parliament. Congratulating @ElizabethMay and @morricemike and wishes @paulmanly good luck in a tight three-way race in Nanaimo-Ladysmith. #Elxn44 #Cdnpoli
@CanadianGreens @AnnamiePaul @ElizabethMay @morricemike @paulmanly Paul says this was a pandemic election in the fourth wave and thanks all @CanadianGreens candidates who ran in the election. #elxn44 #cdnpoli
@CanadianGreens @AnnamiePaul @ElizabethMay @morricemike @paulmanly Paul says it is hard to lose but congratulates @MarciIen on her election win in Toronto Centre. Paul placed fourth with nine per cent of the vote. #elxn44 #cdnpoli
Read 18 tweets
I’m at Conservative Tim Uppal’s campaign party here outside his office by Best Buy on Tamerack Way. Tim isn’t here yet but there a lively crowd here anticipating his arrival and following along with the election results. @edmontonjournal #elxn44 #cdnpoli #yeg
Still too close to call, but Uppal is leading over city councillor Ben Henderson. #elxn44 #yeg #cdnpoli edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/…
BREAKING: Conservative Tim Uppal has been re-elected in the Edmonton Mill Woods riding, #elxn44 #cdnpoli #yeg
Read 4 tweets

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