1/n Me parece que la periodista se olvidó de mencionar quizas al país más importante en el NO uso del barbijo. Casualmente el único que no tiene una tercera ola a lo Israel (país que más rápido vacunó a su población en el mundo).
2/ Le recomendaría a @LNdata que cuando vayan a sacar una nota de tal relevancia, verifiquen con expertos en estadísticas para no quedar en offside. Digo conozco gente ahí mismo que hubiera hecho notar la grosera falta si se le hubieran preguntado.
3/ De pronto me parece que no mencionar a un país con alta circulación viral pero con una de las menores mortalidades ajustada por población de riesgo es como una omisión 'importante' ya que hizo todo lo contrario de los demas (Dinamarca fue similar pero con menos circulación).
4/ Con esto digo, no podemos hacer la vista gorda con Suecia. Suecia mostró que nada de lo que hicimos sirvió para nada. Su dinámica epidémica por ahora es bastante distinta a la de otros lugares en el mismo hemisferio con el ingreso de la misma variante.
5/ Yo me acuerdo cuando mostraban en las filminas la 'abominación' Sueca. Sin embargo, ellos sabian que era una maratón. No solo nos mostró como se hacía, tendríamos que estar pidiendo perdón de rodillas.

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More from @federicolois

18 Sep
1/ A pedido de algunos familiares y amigos que siempre me preguntan, pero no pueden enviar nuestra información en inglés porque es muy técnica, lean este hilo explicativo de cómo era posible saber en Abril de 2021 el alcance de la segunda ola de COVID.
2/ Con @LDJaparidze al principio en forma individual y luego en forma conjunta desde Agosto de 2020 quisimos entender cómo se comporta el SARS-Cov-2 y cual es la mejor forma de atacar el problema. O sea, como tener menos muertos.
3/ En resumen, el caso de Argentina es particularmente interesante, porque hicimos exactamente lo contrario. Si nuestro objetivo era disminuir la mortalidad, según nuestros resultados hicimos todo al revés. Esto es fácil de constatar, somos el país número 11 en mortalidad.
Read 25 tweets
1 Sep
@Akustronique 1/ There is a general misunderstanding on what a CI with p=whatever means. When you say your CI is [x..y] with a p=1-alpha you are essentially saying... I will accept p chances (say 4 in 100) of being wrong that the actual value X is within the bounds defined by x and y ...
@Akustronique 2/ What most people dont understand is that any value within the interval x and y is fair game with uniform distribution. There is NO guarantee that the prior distribution (the thing you are measuring) would follow a gaussian distribution or any other.
@Akustronique 3/ Which also mean that given a wide enough confidence interval [x..y] you just cannot accept a point estimate at face value. Where those intervals cross the null-hypothesis in the crude there is no 'adjustment' to be done that wouldn't bias your sample and throw off the analysis
Read 5 tweets
1 Sep
1/ A new "Masks RCT" has been doing the rounds lately with "The miracle of masks". Don't say more. What do you know when your CI cannot rule out no-effect or harm? Yeah, that's correct. You drop it in the garbage can where it belongs.
2/ I wouldn't even going to comment on it, a cursory look at the tables already show that whatever math you apply to it was going to be anything... but given that I got bombarded with "What do you think about the masks RCT" it forced me to comment.
3/ Looking at the tables is a good time saver. I just didn't have to read 90 pages where a single table would suffice to tell me everything I need to know.
Read 5 tweets
1 Sep
1/ Say I show you casually this picture... And I am mention that it comes from somewhere around the Pacific. What would be your immediate reaction to it?
2/ I know, I know everything is better with a poll.
3/ Truth be told I haven't look at the methodology in detail, so I cannot comment on how many horrors I will find. But it is funny that the conclusion after watching that is:
Read 5 tweets
27 Aug
Notice the date... @ducdorleans61 was asking me on other thread about the "I told you so".
Another "I told you so". Let me repeat it again. It isn't a smart thing to do.
Made a mistake in the equation in an earlier tweet of the thread, but the general result is the same. In the wake of waning immunity, it becomes much more relevant.
Read 15 tweets
26 Aug
1/ While I agree here, with most of the critique; I cannot stop thinking that everybody is looking for the tree but it is missing the forest. In the process to find explanations of why this and that, confounders and else. The elephant in the room is there staring at us.
2/ Truth be told, the problem was noticed (hats off). But I am not witnessing an entire realization of the full implications of this discovery.
3/ Coincidentally, 2 studies published today about the very same topic showcase the exact same issue. What are the odds?
Read 8 tweets

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