Thread by @robfordmancs

Was reminded today that its been a while since I did one of these. Eve of Labour conference seems a good point to take another look. Starmer was announced as leader on 4th April 2020, so we are now (again) 17 months in...

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/832205371699785729

More don't seem to have done a leader approval for Sept 2021 yet (maybe they're holding it back for conference next week) but August's figure for Starmer was -26, while September's (related but somewhat different) satisfaction rating was -25. I'll use the -26

Here's Starmer ranked relative to earlier oppo ldrs on MORI data:

Corbyn: -38
IDS: -37
Foot -35
Starmer -26
Hague -21
Howard -20
Ed M -18
Kinnock -13
Cameron -4
Smith +4
Blair +22

So Starmer is more popular than his immediate predecessor Corbyn, but less popular than predecessor but one Ed M. Fourth from bottom on the overall list - all those in his vicinity went on to defeat at the next election or were deposed before it happened (IDS).

Also worth noting we're quite a long way in now, and only one of the leaders with -20 ratings at this point achieved a substantial turnaround in public perceptions thereafter. The exception, however, was Starmer's immediate predecessor Corbyn (though he still lost the election).

Meanwhile on the PM popularity ratings, here's Johnson rating 26 months in vs his various predecessors at the same point...

Prime Ministerial approval after 25 months (IPSOS-MORI):

Brown -42
May -33
Major -30
Thatcher -27
Cameron -24
Johnson -11
Callaghan +12
Blair +22

Johnson's current negative rating is not unusual - most recent PMs unpopular by this stage. Blair & Callaghan only exceptions

Johnson's current rating puts him 3rd out of the 8 we have ratings for - well above his immediate Con predecessors May & Cameron, and his Lab predecessor Brown, though still well behind Blair (whose long run of very high popularity ratings is pretty unique).

Combining the two ratings, both parties have leaders who are more popular at this stage in their reign than their immediate predecessors. However, Starmer's ratings are mediocre by historical oppo standards and portend defeat. Johnson's ratings are still above average.