Suppose there was a $10 strike call on both of these investments. What's it worth?
Ok I'll take 150 retweets, and a million likes now.
If someone managing money finds any of this "eye-opening" they are committing malpractice. This is what's known as a first round interview question for a 21 year old analyst role. There are no dumb questions, but if you have a seat and any of this is interesting I'm 🤯
(correction thanks to @AlbertBridgeCap....if you roll a 6 you get paid $21 not 21-1. I didn't intend for the payoff to be a function of bet size which is what 21-1 means.
But if you took the payoff to be 21-1, then now what's the game worth? Chance to use what you learned...)
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Is it inconsistent to be more compassionate to "horrible" people than to animals?
Animals that suffer seem to be a big monkey wrench in trying to hold together some worldviews.
A winding observation in the past week got me there...
I was at an exhibit in a museum in Danville that dealt with the opening of the US western frontier including the fate of native Americans.
It gets you thinking of course about how human cultures could evolve so differently.
But one of the ideas that I fixated on was...
The view to some tribes that owning land made no more sense than owning the air or water.
And the only thought that occurred (actually recurred, because I have it a lot) is how made up everything is. I mean rules and laws (not say physics...I mean we can build bridges and cars)
If your work makes you study companies and business models you build a deep pattern library to cross-reference a new idea against, adjusting for differences.
I totally lack this and it's a cool thing to have. Next best thing would be to lean on your friends who have it I guess
You can read and listen to pods to learn it maybe. You can even pick up some jargon that compresses some of the patterns (ie "melting ice cube"). But I wonder how far you can get without immersion of investing in companies.
When I hang out with friends (local dads) and shop talk comes up I'm always the one slowing it down "hold on what does that mean". A lot of it very credit/PE-sounding stuff, with more references to legal sounding stuff than I'm used to.
My career has mostly been surrounded by Ayn Randian types but some of the absolute smartest people I've seen in this biz are very progressive and kind of black sheep and I've always been intrigued by genius idealogues.
On one hand you have what Munger says about them...
What will a 95th percentile return for single stock be in the next 6 months be?
What if we restrict to optionable? Anyone have a dashboard that can ask:
"5% of names have an N(d2) of at least 3x"
but 3x is a threshold you can move until you capture 5% of the universe
Because it's optionable I think that sets a floor for what the true 95th percentile return will be since the investable universe for this contest is all stocks.
But I presume that at least half the kids won't realize that picking a recognizable name won't cut it....
Meaning the probability that any kid picks a name that finishes in the 95th percentile is probably small.
Using this to think about what range of implied odds to look for in a biotech. A name that has 5x potential is probably unnecessary to strive for but 2x prolly not enuff
Not in the same league, but have a distant relative that owns a bunch of buildings in LA (he lives in a Santa Monica house that was worth $5mm 20 years ago).
When I asked him about anything related to business, he just says Jesus tells him what to buy.
A fintwit-raised dashboard of dashboards (kind of like layouts in Bloomberg/TradingView/Koyfin/Excel etc) where individuals shared:
🌡️their dashboard
🧠the reasoning for what's on it
⏱️the timeframe/decision the metric informs
i say "rhetorical" since it would not make sense for people to contribute to this...but maybe. I think I could have shared every one of my dashboards and what my positions were and i think almost everyone would still f it up...
since the strategies are ultimately discretionary and sizing, gameplan, and relationships are important
But the dashboards themselves are useful base rate starting points esp since they narrow from the infinite