Is it inconsistent to be more compassionate to "horrible" people than to animals?
Animals that suffer seem to be a big monkey wrench in trying to hold together some worldviews.
A winding observation in the past week got me there...
I was at an exhibit in a museum in Danville that dealt with the opening of the US western frontier including the fate of native Americans.
It gets you thinking of course about how human cultures could evolve so differently.
But one of the ideas that I fixated on was...
The view to some tribes that owning land made no more sense than owning the air or water.
And the only thought that occurred (actually recurred, because I have it a lot) is how made up everything is. I mean rules and laws (not say physics...I mean we can build bridges and cars)
And I can imagine an argument from some about capitalism, and lifting people from suffering, and progress and so forth.
But of course any reasoning like that still optimizes for something and that something is obviously human-centric.
But to take that view...
Is to say these other cultures way of life is wrong. They optimized for something that was,in a modern lens, very non-compassionate.
And then, what do we make of animals and industrial meat in our modern calculus.
So here we are, cultural evolution, which is value-free just
does it's weeding.
At any one point it could be a local maxima (we might all just blow humanity up with nuclear weapons and our modern cultural will be revealed to be a point where the sign changed)
But the idea that all the arguments are made up and entrants into the idea
tournament just remains.
And so, talking your own book or secretly supporting views that accrue to your own book are all that's left. Super relativistic and nihilistic.
But contending with the fate of trampled cultures and animals feels hard to assimilate otherwise.
Anyway, simply thinking about the property rights thing which is so native to our thinking just can get you into some weird water if you're like me and have no coherent worldview. It's just all made up, and it's hard for me to take metaphysical crusades seriously...
Everyone talks their own book, everyone is a hypocrite.
But embracing that is ugly and dangerous. So we need to pretend.
And realize that when people look closely at the hypocrisy they will always find it
But it's moot. but we also have to pretend it's not.
Infinite loop
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Suppose there was a $10 strike call on both of these investments. What's it worth?
Ok I'll take 150 retweets, and a million likes now.
If someone managing money finds any of this "eye-opening" they are committing malpractice. This is what's known as a first round interview question for a 21 year old analyst role. There are no dumb questions, but if you have a seat and any of this is interesting I'm 🤯
If your work makes you study companies and business models you build a deep pattern library to cross-reference a new idea against, adjusting for differences.
I totally lack this and it's a cool thing to have. Next best thing would be to lean on your friends who have it I guess
You can read and listen to pods to learn it maybe. You can even pick up some jargon that compresses some of the patterns (ie "melting ice cube"). But I wonder how far you can get without immersion of investing in companies.
When I hang out with friends (local dads) and shop talk comes up I'm always the one slowing it down "hold on what does that mean". A lot of it very credit/PE-sounding stuff, with more references to legal sounding stuff than I'm used to.
My career has mostly been surrounded by Ayn Randian types but some of the absolute smartest people I've seen in this biz are very progressive and kind of black sheep and I've always been intrigued by genius idealogues.
On one hand you have what Munger says about them...
What will a 95th percentile return for single stock be in the next 6 months be?
What if we restrict to optionable? Anyone have a dashboard that can ask:
"5% of names have an N(d2) of at least 3x"
but 3x is a threshold you can move until you capture 5% of the universe
Because it's optionable I think that sets a floor for what the true 95th percentile return will be since the investable universe for this contest is all stocks.
But I presume that at least half the kids won't realize that picking a recognizable name won't cut it....
Meaning the probability that any kid picks a name that finishes in the 95th percentile is probably small.
Using this to think about what range of implied odds to look for in a biotech. A name that has 5x potential is probably unnecessary to strive for but 2x prolly not enuff
Not in the same league, but have a distant relative that owns a bunch of buildings in LA (he lives in a Santa Monica house that was worth $5mm 20 years ago).
When I asked him about anything related to business, he just says Jesus tells him what to buy.
A fintwit-raised dashboard of dashboards (kind of like layouts in Bloomberg/TradingView/Koyfin/Excel etc) where individuals shared:
🌡️their dashboard
🧠the reasoning for what's on it
⏱️the timeframe/decision the metric informs
i say "rhetorical" since it would not make sense for people to contribute to this...but maybe. I think I could have shared every one of my dashboards and what my positions were and i think almost everyone would still f it up...
since the strategies are ultimately discretionary and sizing, gameplan, and relationships are important
But the dashboards themselves are useful base rate starting points esp since they narrow from the infinite