Model guidance this afternoon for Hurricane Sam continues to be encouraging for a northward turn over open-ocean.
GEFS 12z ensembles (0.25°) through 180-hours are tightly clustered. Always outliers out of 31 solutions, so we focus on the mean (black line).
GEFS 12z ensembles (0.25°) through 180-hours are tightly clustered. Always outliers out of 31 solutions, so we focus on the mean (black line).
Uh oh!
The upgrade/experimental (47r3) HRES version
We cannot definitively say if/when Sam could affect the Northeast US. All we can do is provide probabilities & change them as time goes by. I'd estimate by Monday we will be confident enough in the forecast.
We cannot definitively say if/when Sam could affect the Northeast US. All we can do is provide probabilities & change them as time goes by. I'd estimate by Monday we will be confident enough in the forecast.
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