COT report thru Tues. shows 34% plunge(-24k gold futures contracts)for Managed Money(hedge funds) to just 46.8K. Last time hedge fund contracts this low: March 2021 bottom. See left side of chart. $200+ gain from there in 2 mos. However, 46.8K was BEFORE post-FOMC 3-day slam-down
Best guess(wish COT wasn't so lagging) is at least another -20K net contracts lower as of today, bringing hedgies' positions to around 20K+ contracts(maybe less). Last time that low: May 2019 (see chart below). Can always go lower of course, as they've been net short couple times
Managed Money(hedgies)went net short briefly at end of 2015(exactly at gold's bear mkt bottom $1050), again in 2018 (the next bottom at $1180) and just prior to that 2019 low. Prior to sell-offs, Managed Money positions often above 240K net longs - so lots to buy once gold turns
Remember the adage. Chinese&Indian gold buyers(they account for 1/2 world's physical demand)set gold floors. They're opportunistic buyers&they're buying heavily now. Western investor demand sets the ceilings. (mostly via futures contracts &ETF buying). Woefully underinvested now
Minutes ago a fund mgr. asked me what's the catalyst for gold? We have all catalysts we need (deeply negative rates, high inflation, exploding budget deficits). What we haven't had is complete washout of Western investors. that's what makes bottoms in gold. We're darn close
The catalyst at end of 2015 (gold bear mkt's end)? Certainly wasn't Fed's 1st rate hike(in Dec.) in many yrs. with more to follow (that's why Managed Money was negative). The catalyst was MMs had sold out completely & were net short. Today, MMs anticipating a "taper" gold decline
Lest I forget. Managed Money net silver futures contracts plummeted 91% in latest COT to just 1.3K contracts. That's also prior to 3-day post FOMC slam (Wed. thru today). So almost certainly MMs are now net short. Last time that happened was in mid-2019. Silver chart below.

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More from @htsfhickey

11 May
You just can't make this stuff up. Now that the "joke' crypto Dogecoin has fallen after hypster Elon Musk failed to lift the price of the "coin" following his SNL appearance, the new hot crypto is Dogecoin's logo called Shiba Inu.…
Shiba Inu became attractive to crypto punters when Dogecoin became too expensive (over 50 cents!) Shiba Inu is much cheaper at the current price of: $0.0000317. There's 395 trillion of these Shiba Inu "coins" in circulation. But you better get in fast: it's up 1807% last 7 days
Shiba Inu millionaires are being minted fast with the "coins" now valued at nearly $14 billion in total. And you can now buy them on the #1 crypto exchange -Binance (per CoinMarketCap). Binance offers up to 125 to 1 leverage for crypto futures trading.
Read 4 tweets
31 Mar
Currently looking at a chart from this A.M.'s GCRU newsletter. A 54 year chart (1967-2021) comparing gold to real T-bill yields. Shows that during great gold bull mkt decades of 1970s & 2000s it didn't matter if negative rates became less negative due to rising rates. Gold rose
Didn't even matter if "real" rates went slightly positive. As long as they were low, gold still rose. For example, from the summer of 1977 to early 1980 gold skyrocketed as the fed funds rate was lifted from 4.75% to 15%. It was only when Volcker raised to 20% did gold break
GCRU conclusion: "You’ll notice whenever the real yield (in that 54-yr chart) has been over 3-4%, it has put downside pressure on gold. But whenever the real rate
has been below that level, it has been bullish
for gold."
Read 5 tweets
8 Mar
In mid-2000s I was told(by Bernanke & others) there couldn't possibly be a nat'l housing bubble. But I could see it with my own eyes(& wrote about it). Now I'm told inflation's too low, yet I can see inflation percolating everywhere - from commodity prices…
to foods & now even to energy, to freight rates, to the unprecedented money supply growth (though current M's increases are historic & much lesser money growth has led to inflation before), from anyone producing durable goods, to the "prices paid" ISM reports, to housing prices
J. Powell doesn't even believe U.S. govt's unemployment data (believes they're far too low), so why should anyone believe U.S. govt. inflation data - when we know there's a motive to suppress them - so politicians can keep spending, handing out free money & running up deficits?
Read 4 tweets
5 Mar
Legendary gold investor, Pierre Lassonde recently said that investment demand sets the ceiling price for gold, but the jewelry market sets the floor price. This is what Bitcoin doesn't have - real physical buyers to take the other side of the speculators.…
Speculators (led by hedge funds) have been pressing gold lower using their levered paper futures contracts (they never touch an ounce of gold) knowing all the technicians' chart sell price levels. Breaking those levels causes "forced" selling. They push "trend" as far as they can
But eventually they run into the "floor" set by real physical gold demand. The gap between the physical prices (where there are great shortages today) and the speculators' much lower paper prices are as great as I've ever seen them - meaning paper pushers are running out of room
Read 6 tweets
8 Jan
The herd has little interest in precious metals & "value" stocks in general. Too enthralled chasing one-direction bubble symbols such as TSLA, GBTC & ARKK. Repeat of '99-2000. Exact same behavior. Only the symbols have changed. Back then it was the likes of YHOO, WCOM & JDSU
Ending will be the same too. Total collapse in the parabolic blow-off symbols (down 90%+) and huge shift to value stocks & precious metals. In the meantime, with so little trading volume in metals, they're vulnerable to -$25 all-in-a-few minutes smashes in wee hours of night.
From the '99-2000 experience, I know it is pointless to engage in "conversation" with the Bubbleheads. Nothing will make them understand - greed has clouded their minds & they are full of hubris. Let them party on... the higher their symbols fly - the greater the crashes will be
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct 20
Back in 2011 when gold was selling around today's level, Alamos Gold traded at over $20 a share. Today it's trading at just 8, yet tonight it reported outstanding Q3 results including record cash flow from operations of 33 cents per share (up 62% Y/Y), GAAP EPS of .17 (up 240%)
Alamos reported "adjusted" EPS of .15 per share, up 150% y/y (a big "beat"), hiked its dividend 33% & paid off the remainder ($100M) of its revolving credit line. AGI now has no debt. Better still, its Young-Davidson flagship mine (AGI's biggest producer), was limited in Q3.
Alamos's flagship Young-Davidson (Y/D) mine was severely limited in July as AGI completed a multi-yr expansion that will significantly increase the mine's production & lower its costs. At the midpoint, AGI is forecasting a 42% increase in Y/D's production from Q3.
Read 6 tweets

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