Thread by @docbaty

Today’s reading of the @SatPaper begins with an article by @KarenMMiddleton "Under the surface of Australia’s submarine deal”

thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/…

"Hours before cancelling a $90 billion contract for French submarines, Australia was still telling the company to proceed with design – but the plan to renege had been in the works since 2019.”

- there are ways to treat your allies, and then there’s what happened here.

"On the morning of September 15, Paris time, the French government-owned Naval Group received a letter from Australia’s Defence Department…

...it said Australia had accepted new documents sent by Naval Group, including technical specifications.”

“Everything was okay to finish the negotiation and sign this new contract quickly,” the chairman of Naval Group, Pierre Éric Pommellet, told French newspaper Le Figaro this week.

'Within hours, however, at 1.30pm Paris time, Pommellet was asked to join a teleconference with the Defence Department.

“It was during this meeting that they informed us that the contract would be terminated for convenience,” he explained.'

Let’s pause for a moment.

Let’s separate out two separate components of these events:
1. The decision to drop the French contract and instead agree to a US/UK version; and
2. The manner in which this was communicated to the French…

Both stink, but best to be clear.

"This week, Prime Minister Scott Morrison defended the way his government handled the contract, saying he made a decision in Australia’s national security interests: “I know that France would do the same.””

This is a dubious assertion.

It’s also a shitty rationale for shitty behaviour. “I won’t apologise; other people do shitty things too.” - hardly the stuff of strong leadership.

At the same time, the PM is yet to acknowledge the impact on the South Australian businesses that were getting ready to begin production in just over 18 months; nor the end to that domestic capability.

"Involving Australia, America and Britain, with the shorthand “AUKUS”, it is not a new security pact but an agreement to share nuclear technology. It will see Australia buy eight nuclear-powered submarines."

Note: we don’t know the cost of those 8 subs.

@KarenMMiddleton then gets into the background of when the Morrison Gov’t began formulating this alternative plan (roughly two years ago).

"It seems those dealing with the submarine contract in Defence were themselves unaware the nuclear deal was being pursued. “

I mean, why would you?

"One irony is that the French Barracuda Attack-class vessel, which Australia was buying, is a nuclear submarine it demanded be modified to diesel.”

- this is an important point, and hasn’t really been made clear...

"Australia did not contemplate buying the French nuclear version initially or now. The French technology requires an onshore nuclear industry to service it, while American and British technology does not."

So, this speaks to that first point about the decision: it seems like a reasonable choice from a technology point of view.

However, we don’t know the cost. We don’t have a timeline. We don’t have the submariners to crew them (numbers have been declining for years).

These new subs are larger and less agile. They will be more exposed to new types of attack, especially the development of swarms of small underwater drones. That threat might be 20 years away, but so are these subs...

"In June, Morrison attended the G7 meeting in Cornwall, where the three leaders are understood to have sealed their agreement.

The gatecrashing of Morrison’s photo opportunity with Biden by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson now appears slightly less spontaneous."

"Greens leader Adam Bandt condemned the move as buying “floating Chernobyls”. Labor has effectively accepted it.

Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese set several conditions on Labor’s agreement, all of which were already being met."

Labor really is adopting a small target approach going in to the next election. It’s a strategy that could see them disappear entirely...

There is concern that this step towards nuclear power will open the doors for nuclear energy for domestic use. With action on climate change now critical, there is already a push under way to adopt nuclear as a replacement to coal & gas...

"The eight new nuclear-powered submarines … are expected to take years longer to design and build than the cancelled French fleet of 12. Australia needs to develop the workforce to crew and maintain them, including the capacity to respond if there is an accident.

"In the meantime, the existing Collins-class boats will need to have their collective life extended through refurbishment.

And herein lies another possibly unanticipated complication: two key components required to do that are French.”

Oh.

Let me quickly recap the how of the announcement:
* Australian reps at various levels have expressed concerns about the French contract for a number of years.
* It has been delayed several times and experienced cost increases of significance.
* Those concerns have been made clear

* We secretly negotiated a new deal with the US & UK, whilst continuing to work with the French (fair enough);
* As recently as the same day we announced the new deal, the French were informed things were progressing smoothly...

* The new deal was announced jointly by President Biden, PM Johnson and PM Morrison - something that requires detailed planning.
* An hour before the announcement Morrison tried calling French President Macron, unsuccessfully.
* He eventually sent a text message.

In all of this, the thing I want most is to see a copy of that text.