Thread by @FinPlanKaluAja1

Review of the Nigerian Economy Q1 2021

Total Imports: N6.85t
Total Exports: N2.90t

Trade Deficit of N3.94t

As Nigeria imports more, the currency gets weaker as more N is needed to buy same $.

This is why Naira sells for N570 in the black market

Let's talk exports....

Crude oil exports : 66%
Non oil export: 33%

Nigeria is still a mono export nation. This means that fx earnings are tied tightly to only one product, crude oil and gas.

Let's talk debt

Local debt: Increase of N490b
Foreign debt: Decrease of $488m

Nigeria is exposed to

Multinational 54%
Wall Street (Eurobond) 32%
None Paris Bilateral 12%

Watch the Eurobonds, that's the most expensive component.

Now Revenues

Q1 deficit from oil revenues of 25% or N226b off-target

Non-oil surpassed the target, led by strong growth in VAT and CIT

Now Expenses

Total Recurrent: N1.09t
Total Capital: N1.07t
Total Debt Service: N1.08t

Total Expenditure: N3.38t
Revenues: N1.09t
Deficit: N 2.29t

Debt Servicing takes more than capital expenditures.

Summary

Retained Revenues down 34%
Total Expenditure up 17%
Fiscal deficit up 87%
Personal cost up 4%
Domestic debt service up 6%
Foreign debt service down 1%
Interest owed to CBN N275b

Now Expenses

Total Recurrent: N1.09t
Total Capital: N1.07t
Total Debt Service: N1.08t

Total Expenditure: N3.38t
Revenues: N1.09t
Deficit: N 2.29t

Debt Servicing takes more than capital expenditures.