1/11. More on the immigration/skills link, using the @ukhomeoffice's very good impact assessment for the 2021 changes to skilled worker rules. Full 72 page document has some interesting numbers & charts gov.uk/government/pub…
2/11. This chart (figure 3, page 17) shows Home office's Nov 2020 forecast of net flow of EEA workers into/out of UK. Peak 150,000 inflow in 2015 shifting to net 40,000 outflow in 2021 before settling on average 10,000 inflow from 2025 onwards. "Policy" are 2021 rules. 
3/11. Forecasting migration is a mug's game but it's always a start to look at the numbers. What these show is that the 2021 rules (including a minimum Level 3 qualification threshold for skilled workers) would exclude lots of new EEA workers (but not those with settled status)
4/11. Economy-wide numbers are a bit abstract. The Home Office team did some analysis on which sectors would be affected by the 2021 reforms in a diagram. It's on Page 40. Large goods vehicle drivers in middle right. You might quibble on "contribution to public services" point
5/11. There's more in the Home Office impact assessment (including forecast of a 30k a year rise in long-term non-EEA immigration) but what UK system needs to get much, much smarter about is how this sort of analysis feeds into business/skills/education policy making.
6/11. In my work, I see very little government discussion on the skills/education side about what needs to change to deal with the 2021 immigration rules. For example, Skills for Jobs white paper, which plans an architecture for local skills planning, is silent on this issue
7/11. The Skills for Jobs architecture will take time to take effect, don't cover apprenticeships, will need some national direction and, above all, will need a rocket boost in terms of spending (see our spending review bid). Nevertheless they're a start aoc.co.uk/news/college-l…
8/11. UK policy should start considering immigration and skills together. In recent years UK has been a net importer of people - more so than the recent past. If forecasts suggest smaller inflows of people in the 2020s then policy needs to adapt
9/11. Some adaptation will take place in the labour market (eg pay & conditions might improve to attract UK resident workers to jobs) but the 2021 immigration rules are a big intervention by government in employment so it may sensible to make supplementary adjustments in skills
10/11. Leaving it all to the market in education doesn't work. Adults under-invest in themselves (as opposed to their children) and don't borrow. Employers focus on short-term needs. If UK migration policy cuts inflows of people to some sectors, UK skills policy should react.
11/11. An alternative approach might to be a bit smarter about UK migration policy. Don't, for example, assume that the "brightest and the best" are only those in jobs at a Level 3 qualification and above.
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