The UK desperately needs a destigmatisation of debate over how its economy and state need migration. For years culture wars distracted from a reality that EU and non-EU migration is an inevitable feature of economic growth that fluctuates depending on labour market demand
EU and non-EU migration alone cannot fix labour shortages, but both are an inevitable part of a mix of policy solutions to alleviate the end of the labour market surplus of the 00s. New conditions for which UK business, political and media elites are psychologically unprepared
How UK elites are psychologically unprepared for global shifts from labour surplus to labour shortage that have been apparent in Europe for years is itself a product of endless culture wars that viewed migration as a symbol of identity rather than an embedded structural process
The Right constructed migration as a cultural threat, while among parts of the Left migration has become a symbol of societal cultural progress in ways that have become detached from the economic dynamics that sometimes attract migrants and in other cases mean they go elsewhere
Discourse stagnation embodied by Brexit culture wars mean UK debate is fixated on EU workers. But for years demographic and income data indicated that Eastern European societies are experiencing rising incomes and tightening labour markets. The great EU migration wave is over
The end of the EU migration wave means the UK needs a debate about how it can compete with other European states to attract non-EU skilled migrants or such migrants willing to acquire skills to fill gaps in the labour market that equally necessary training of UK workers can't
And this need to attract migrants to fill labour market gaps that training UK workers can't is not separate from need to improve pay and conditions in entire business sectors that need workers.
Shit pay and conditions will deter migrant as well as UK workers who can go elsewhere
Culture wars in UK political debate have generated a stigma around looking at migration as an inevitable structural aspect of a successful economy that the UK state and economy can no longer afford
ps if for years I've been monotonously repetitive when issues in my research areas of EU neighbourhood borders and migration touch on the UK, it's because UK debate on migration, borders and security has been stuck in a rut of assumptions of 2007 in a very different world of 2021
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The EU, US and China have continental economic structures with economies of scale that enable logistics an supply chains to shift assets around to mitigate strains on specific points of the system. The UK like other smaller states struggles because it has less capacity to draw on
UK government with legislative power to impose regulations on a sector that improve pay and conditions shocked that sector will not voluntarily improve pay and conditions
Labour shortages need a balance of state measures to open up affordable training, foster pay rises and improve conditions as well as active migrant recruitment policy that competes with other states for a limited pool of skilled workers or workers willing to go through training.
If the UK's attempts to get EU workers falter because EU states face labour shortages in the same sectors, then the UK government is going to have to come to terms with the fact that it will have to compete with the EU for skilled workers from non-EU states like Turkey or Algeria
If you want migrant as well as domestic workers to do a job and stay in the job if they're doing it, you need to offer them decent pay and conditions.
Differentiating between migrant and domestic workers misses the point. If you can't get domestic workers, and migrants move to another job the moment they get a chance, you still have shortages
That's the key difference to 1978 or the fuel crisis of 2000. In both cases the supply chain could get up again because the drivers and workers were in place in sufficient numbers to shift goods around the economy. The UK now needs to find workers that may go to the EU instead
Alleviating the supply chain crisis in the UK requires fundamental structural change to UK political and economic life. It involves improved conditions to attract domestic workers and fostering a state welcoming culture to attract needed migrants who can go elsewhere in Europe
Brexit is one of several factors exacerbating structural shifts in the UK economy that have been building for a decade. But anti-migrant political culture severely exacerbated by Brexit debate is a key barrier to policy needed to sustain the UK economy in times of labour shortage