Thread by @Taniel

Polls have closed in Germany. And the 2 exit polls aired by German media project a far tighter situation than final month’s polls.

One has SPD & CDU tied at 25%; other, SPD up 26/24.

Will be a historically low result for CDU regardless — but they have a path to hold to power.

At 25%, CDU is hovering about 10-15 % points below where it was in the past 4 elections (when twas led by Merkel).

SPD may be higher than it's been since 2005.

15% would be highest Greens have ever received in a national election. They're highly likely to be in next government.

Both German exit polls project for now that the AFD, Germany's far-right party, has gone *down* since the last elections (when it got a historic 12.6%). But also that it'll remain at a very high level (10-11%).

Germany's Green Party is likely to nearly DOUBLE its number of parliamentary seats in today's elections!

They may have hoped for better (esp. in that brief moment they led polls in the summer), but they're likely to be the junior coalition partner regardless.

WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR IN GERMANY:
—Green surge likely puts them in government.
—Tight finish between CDU (cons.) & SPD (center-left)

WHAT WE DON'T KNOW YET:
—Who of CDU/SPD gets more votes? more seats?
—If different, who'll have upper-hand to form gov?
—Will Left/Linke > 5.0%?

Note: Both sets of seat projections by the German media show that the 3 left-of-center parties (SPD, Grunen, & Linke) combined would fall short of 50% seat threshold to form a government. Twas an unlikely scenario anyway bc the SPD was likelier to look to its right, but still.

UPDATE: The 2 German projections, now each tweaked twice, are converging toward a small lead in votes for social-democrats (SPD) over conservatives (CDU). But they still disagree on which of the 2 major parties will end up with more seats.

It appears that, for the first time in Germany's postwar history, the 2 dominant parties (social-democratic SPD & conservative CDU/CSU) will combine for less than 50% in a national election.

An unprecedented fragmentation of the landscape that we've seen throughout Europe.

UPDATE: German media's projections are converging further still, to almost identical numbers. And...:

For first time of the night, *both* project that SPD (social-dem) will receive not just more votes but also more seats than the CDU (conservative).

(Remains tight, though.)

It may be time to re-up this tweet from last month...

(with correction that it's 12 of 16 years)

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1432475214739296257

The big conservative drop nationally — this is CDU’s weakest result since creation after WWII — was fueled in part by a big drop in east Germany.

But this was also a Linke power base: their own drop contributed to taking off the table (mathematically) an SDP/left/green coalition

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1442182135402557440

UPDATE: In 5th wave of the 2 media projections, the SPD (social-dem) would be ahead of the CDU (con.) by 1% & 1.4% nationally. And in seats, ahead by 5 & by 11.

If this holds, it’d be first time since 5 national elections ago (❗️) that the SPD would have more votes & seats.

UPDATE: As results come in, the 2 media projections get refined. Just now, a 6th wave.

And it’s confirming the (social-dem) SPD’s lead: now projected at +7 or +12 seats, & 1.2% or 1.5% in votes.

Note: 1st place doesn't *guarantee* chancellorship. But significant pressure point

It seems clear now that the Linke (Left) will save a substantial parliamentary group. Early projections created uncertainty. (H/t @mathieugallard’s excellent tracking.)

But this doesn’t change that adding SPD/Left/Green would not be enough mathematically (let alone politically).

What we (probably) know: Greens & FDP (center-right) are kingmaker: & will get to choose between SPD & CDU as to who to ally with & put in power.

But since the Greens beat the FDP and prefer the SPD, & since the SPD *seems* to have bested the CDU, you’d rather be in SDP’s shoes.

This analysis of the SPD’s platform shows that it’s the most left-leaning they’ve been in decades.

The SPD, which is emerging as the likely winner of the German election, is on its way to being the first German party for the first time in the past five national elections (❗️).

https://twitter.com/tabouchadi/status/1441042080504156167