Taniel Profile picture
26 Sep, 16 tweets, 4 min read
Polls have closed in Germany. And the 2 exit polls aired by German media project a far tighter situation than final month’s polls.

One has SPD & CDU tied at 25%; other, SPD up 26/24.

Will be a historically low result for CDU regardless — but they have a path to hold to power.
At 25%, CDU is hovering about 10-15 % points below where it was in the past 4 elections (when twas led by Merkel).

SPD may be higher than it's been since 2005.

15% would be highest Greens have ever received in a national election. They're highly likely to be in next government.
Both German exit polls project for now that the AFD, Germany's far-right party, has gone *down* since the last elections (when it got a historic 12.6%). But also that it'll remain at a very high level (10-11%).
Germany's Green Party is likely to nearly DOUBLE its number of parliamentary seats in today's elections!

They may have hoped for better (esp. in that brief moment they led polls in the summer), but they're likely to be the junior coalition partner regardless.
—Green surge likely puts them in government.
—Tight finish between CDU (cons.) & SPD (center-left)

—Who of CDU/SPD gets more votes? more seats?
—If different, who'll have upper-hand to form gov?
—Will Left/Linke > 5.0%?
Note: Both sets of seat projections by the German media show that the 3 left-of-center parties (SPD, Grunen, & Linke) combined would fall short of 50% seat threshold to form a government. Twas an unlikely scenario anyway bc the SPD was likelier to look to its right, but still.
UPDATE: The 2 German projections, now each tweaked twice, are converging toward a small lead in votes for social-democrats (SPD) over conservatives (CDU). But they still disagree on which of the 2 major parties will end up with more seats.
It appears that, for the first time in Germany's postwar history, the 2 dominant parties (social-democratic SPD & conservative CDU/CSU) will combine for less than 50% in a national election.

An unprecedented fragmentation of the landscape that we've seen throughout Europe.
UPDATE: German media's projections are converging further still, to almost identical numbers. And...:

For first time of the night, *both* project that SPD (social-dem) will receive not just more votes but also more seats than the CDU (conservative).

(Remains tight, though.)
It may be time to re-up this tweet from last month...

(with correction that it's 12 of 16 years)

The big conservative drop nationally — this is CDU’s weakest result since creation after WWII — was fueled in part by a big drop in east Germany.

But this was also a Linke power base: their own drop contributed to taking off the table (mathematically) an SDP/left/green coalition
UPDATE: In 5th wave of the 2 media projections, the SPD (social-dem) would be ahead of the CDU (con.) by 1% & 1.4% nationally. And in seats, ahead by 5 & by 11.

If this holds, it’d be first time since 5 national elections ago (❗️) that the SPD would have more votes & seats.
UPDATE: As results come in, the 2 media projections get refined. Just now, a 6th wave.

And it’s confirming the (social-dem) SPD’s lead: now projected at +7 or +12 seats, & 1.2% or 1.5% in votes.

Note: 1st place doesn't *guarantee* chancellorship. But significant pressure point
It seems clear now that the Linke (Left) will save a substantial parliamentary group. Early projections created uncertainty. (H/t @mathieugallard’s excellent tracking.)

But this doesn’t change that adding SPD/Left/Green would not be enough mathematically (let alone politically).
What we (probably) know: Greens & FDP (center-right) are kingmaker: & will get to choose between SPD & CDU as to who to ally with & put in power.

But since the Greens beat the FDP and prefer the SPD, & since the SPD *seems* to have bested the CDU, you’d rather be in SDP’s shoes.
This analysis of the SPD’s platform shows that it’s the most left-leaning they’ve been in decades.

The SPD, which is emerging as the likely winner of the German election, is on its way to being the first German party for the first time in the past five national elections (❗️).

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More from @Taniel

20 Sep
🚨 Big stuff in Oregon.

Dems are pulling plug on a power-sharing arrangement on redistricting, and would then likely quickly pass a congressional map enshrining a 5-1 delegation.
This comes a couple of hours after the state Senate (which did not have such an arrangement) passed such a map.
Republicans may now break quorum in response (as they have in past years on other matters, which precipitated the crisis that led to the power sharing in the first place), which could paralyze the legislature and its map:
Read 4 tweets
8 Sep
Richmond is removing its Robert E. Lee statue today.

The erection of the statue & similar statues in the late 1800s caused huge fights, with black leaders -- incl. Frederick Douglass & black members in the Richmond City Council -- fighting it.

David Blight's "Race & Reunion":
We often see ppl shrug-off oppressive practices in the past, "they were living according to the consensus of the times" --- but "the times" contained plenty of public resistance, dissension & dissent, protest, & crushing those were inexcusable political choices not some fate.
Read 4 tweets
3 Aug
Conservatives heighten their push vs reform prosecutors.

Latest targets, 3 Dems elected in 2019 on progressive platforms in Virginia: in Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun counties. (The first 2 ousted Dem incumbents in primaries.)
I expect those VA recall *efforts* will be cited in many pieces as additional evidence of a backlash. But as Krasner's 2:1 win in May attests to, the existence of (much-publicized) political & policy *opposition* is both normal, & not synonymous with wide backlash. We shall see.
A note I'd add to @kenvogel's article: wave of wins for progressive prosecutors in VA was not unique to 2019, nor did it disappear this year. There were a few elections just this summer!

Just two months ago, a reform candidate won a primary in Norfolk. 
Read 4 tweets
1 Aug
An important @schadenfraade essay on how public services and urban governance are deeply value-imbued matters — and what it looks like to have a left project around them: slate.com/business/2021/…
“All these struggles fit within a long history of Americans stripping cities for parts, hoarding the wealth in the suburbs, and then claiming urbanites can’t govern themselves.”
Part of what’s needed is attention to the hundreds of places in the country where the battles and movements described in this piece are being fought, and what that’s already looking like. (Excited to continue chronicling that, starting with whatsontheballot.com)
Read 4 tweets
3 Jul
Good initial news for Garcia in early count of NYC absentee ballots.

She is overperforming in Manhattan mail-ins (up 38/13 over Adams, just among 1st-choice votes, compared to 32/19 among in-persons). And we know Manhattan overrepresented.

No question that this data should be released by the New York Board of Elections in full and with details if it’s going to be known & reported by the press—not drip drip in this way.
Garcia has netted at least 6,000 votes over Adams — erasing 40% of her total final-round deficit over him— with the first 24K absentees counted in Manhattan (Adams’s worst borough by far).

She’ll likely net even more among those 24K once RCV is run.
Read 4 tweets
27 Jun
NEW: Marine Le Pen's far-right party has failed to win any of France's regions in today's regional elections.

(It fell well short of its pre-election aim of winning several regions & its pre-runoff goal of winning Provence; overall, far further from a win than in 2015.)
The usual center-left (Socialist Party) & center-right (LR) parties have each kept the regions they'd governed since 2015.

A strong night for the right. But also a big relief for the left that keeps its 5 regions & strong local power despite all else.
Emmanuel Macron's party, which swept 2017 national elections, is again routed & largely irrelevant to these elections. Came in 4th or even 5th in many regions.

But Macron & Le Pen remain dominant as individual candidates, & remain favored to make Top 2 in 2022 presidential race.
Read 4 tweets

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