One of the points of contention about Covid transmission (for reasons I find hard to understand) has been whether children infect other members of the household, e.g., their parents. The question's a bit more interesting now that most parents are vaccinated. (1/4)
https://twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1441791826411802625
Although one can't provide definitive evidence by looking at Covid rates, it is at least possible to test a simple prediction that follows from a model in which children get infected at school and then infect their parents. (2/4)
In particular (all things equal):
a) increases in rates among children should precede those among adults, and
b) increases in rates among adults of parental age should precede those of other adults.
(3/4)
a) increases in rates among children should precede those among adults, and
b) increases in rates among adults of parental age should precede those of other adults.
(3/4)
So far the data seem pretty consistent with this model. But causal inference isn't easy, and there may be other models that could explain these data (scratches head). What other theories are there? (the more absurd the better).
(4/4)
(4/4)
https://twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1441791826411802625?s=20
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