This one's for Dawn ...
Anyone who wants to claim that the link between cases and hospitalisation has been "broken" or "severed" might like to explain why the red line (cases) and the blue line (admissions) have been moving in near-perfect synchrony since the start of June.
Anyone who wants to claim that the link between cases and hospitalisation has been "broken" or "severed" might like to explain why the red line (cases) and the blue line (admissions) have been moving in near-perfect synchrony since the start of June.
One of the things I was at pains to point out in this interview is that we haven't broken the link (0:25).
Some people were confused that the plot above had separate scales on the left and right. This version might help. Note that hospitalisations are actually coming 7 days later than the case specimen date; the plot takes the lag into account so you can see the lines moving together.
For some, "the link between cases and hospitalisation is broken" seems to mean "cases are much less likely to lead to hospitalisation" (I think these are different things). The latter is true, but only by a factor of about 4. We may reach 4x previous case peak by early August. 
Incidentally, for those not in the UK, here's the context to the "This one's for Dawn" in the original tweet -- it refers to @DawnButlerBrent , an MP who was thrown out of parliament today for telling the truth. Bravo!
https://twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1418231870467330048?s=20
I'm seeing lots of confusions and accusations (some of them innocent, others less so). Rather than respond to all of them individually, here's a thread explaining what the word "link" means to scientists, and why it matters.
https://twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1418602366799163392?s=20
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
